Profit question

N

Neural

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Here is the option data for TSLA for right now.
Let's say I think the price in a week will be 890 (and it actually hits that price):

If I buy the strike 855:
Breakeven: 882.95
Profit: 890 - 882.95 = 7.05
% Profit: 7.05/27.95 = 25.22%

If I buy the strike 820:
Breakeven: 866
Profit: 890 - 866 = 24
% Profit: 24/46 = 52.71%

This doesn't make sense to me that the option that is less risky as there is less chance of it being worthless given the lower strike price gives a better return?

Have I made some silly mistake here?

Thank you.
 
You are paying more for a deep in the money option, why is it a surprise that your chances of being profitable are higher? The breakeven for lower strikes in the money options is lower. There are no free lunches and yes, you are being silly.
 
Nobody other than yourself is considering your theoretical realised profit column when pricing the option. Think about it. How about 990 or even 1200 instead? Would that make buying the 820 strike a near certainty? Only in hindsight.

Way more useful for example, would be to add a Pct Change column i.e from 820 to 890 and compare that accordingly to the implied volatily value that the market was pricing in at that time. That way you should be able to make a more informed call (cheap or expensive) given your own estimated probability of the jump.

"Let's say, I think ..." is probably not enough though. LOL
 
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