Professional Day Trading

TUES - 12-28-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 1)

GAP/FIRST MOVE/FIRST RETRACE - Gap up above 1255 resistance moved lower into the 1255-1250 consolidation area. A price /volume/ pivot sell at 9:05 at 1252.75 offered small gains/breakeven as price moved lower to the 1250 area.

Intra-day structure is down as long as 1255 area holds but price isn't going lower until 1250 is taken out. Best trade setup will be sells inside 1255-1250 chop after pullback to 1255 area, and/or other price/volume pullbacks with room to move to 1250 area to see if 1250 area can be taken out.

Buys may develop later if 1250 area holds (price/volume chop long setup inside 1255-1250), or after 1255 is taken out to the upside, but unitl then stick with down bias an monitor 1250 support area.
 
TUES - 12-28-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2)

MIDDAY - With new swing highs holding, intra-day structure is now up at 1253.50, so trade the long side and monitor 1255 area resistance.
 
TUES - 12-28-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2)

SUMMARY - As slow holiday trading continues just a few trading opportunities in our chosen trading timeframe- 2 sells and 1 buy.

Early rejection of 1255 resistance set up and early sell which offered small gains.

With early day structure down, the next sell never followed thru to expected 1250 support and a small loss resulted as intra-day structure turned up shortly after noon.

Holding long for the rest of the session again offered small upside gains to the expected 1255 area.
 
WED - 12-29-2010 (OVERNIGHT-OPEN)

MACRO – On the daily charts, the ES has broken out of the 1200-1050 bracket on the way to the 1280 area. Currently price is in an uptrend trying to break above 1255 area resistance with 1250 area support. If price moves below 1250 it will signal a move to 1242 daily pullback to swing support. If 1242 is taken out then price should move to the 1230 pullback area.

OPEN - Overnight price has moved higher above 1255 so the bias remains up until the overnight lows around 1254 are taken out.

Watch for the first price move of the day/first trade setups to either move past overnight highs (continuation), or overnight lows (fade the gap) and then see how day session Part1 structure aligns with the 1255-1250 consolidation area to develop a trading bias in these continued slow trading conditions.
 
WED - 12-29-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 1)

GAP/FIRST MOVE/FIRST RETRACE - Gap up continued higher and bias remains up for trading until intra-day lows at 1255 are taken out and/or a new swing low develops later in the trading session that will take time to develop.

If 1255 is taken out than expect move to 1255-1250 lows, otherwise stay with up bias as price continues to search for the patient sellers above.
 
WED - 12-29-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2)

SUMMARY - Only trade today was to get long at 1257 (9:00 or 11:00) for scalp gains, (breakeven if you didn't get filled). There is just not much trade opportunity in the trading timeframe being monitored until volatility picks up.

The daily chart has grinded higher above for almost 20 days in a row.

A move below 1255 (today's low, back into 1255-1250) should confirm a reversal looking day today with follow through lower to test the 1247 area to start.
 

Attachments

THURS - 12-30-2010 (OVERNIGHT-OPEN)

MACRO – On the daily charts, the ES has broken out of the 1200-1050 bracket on the way to the 1280 area. After moving up for almost 20 days in a row, it looks a like a reversal day may have been put in yesterday for a short term pullback. If price moves below yesterday's low of 1255 it signals a move to the 1250 area. Below 1250 signals a move to 1242 daily pullback to swing support. If 1242 is taken out then price should move to the 1230 pullback area.

OPEN - Overnight price has moved lower to the 1255 area and a down bias is in place.

Although continued slow end of the year trading may limit any strong directional movement, today looks to be the start of a pause/pullback day after a long uptrend, so we start with that bias going into the first part of the session while focusing on price trying to break below the 1255 area and an attempt to move to the 1250 area to start.
 
THURS - 12-30-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 1)

GAP/FIRST MOVE/FIRST RETRACE - An aggressive C1 opening sell at 1254.25 was met with a small loss when price made its first move of the day higher. A less aggressive C2 sell developed at 9:00 at 1254.50 which moved nicely to new intra-day lows on the way to the 1250 area.

The bias remains down as long as 1255 area holds in the short run.

If price fails to make new swing lows as time goes by, then perhaps an up bias will develop later with a breakout higher above 1255, but this will take time to develop.
 
THURS - 12-29-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2)

SUMMARY - E=MC2 trading is about big context first. This means right now the current environment of low volume/slow price action is the primary big picture context to be considered.

As I mentioned in one of my E=MC2 blog comments, standard C1, C2 entries, plus normal follow through is not the norm right now.

Instead, all you can do is look at bigger picture flows and trade for minimum daily goals, that is, if you trade at all.

Today, a nice sell trade early confirmed a down bias to start, and another nice sell around 10:10 pushed price to new lows.

From here, the big picture chart regulated through time (versus the trading chart regulated through volatility), turned the bias up around 13:00 which offered a mechanical counter-trend buy opportunity back to the expected 1255 area.

Once volume and volatility return, there will be both more trading opportunities and larger price movements for gains.
 
FRI - 12-31-2010 (OVERNIGHT-OPEN- DAY SESSION 1)

MACRO – On the daily charts, the ES has broken out of the 1200-1050 bracket on the way to the 1280 area. After moving up for almost 20 days in a row, price is now pausing inside the 1255-1250 consolidation area. Below 1250 signals a move to 1242 daily pullback to swing support. If 1242 is taken out then price should move to the 1230 pullback area.

OPEN/DAY SESSION PART 1 - Overnight price moved lower towards the bottom of 1255-1250. An aggressive price action C1 sell developed around 8:40 at 1251.50 to test the 1250 area as price made its first move of the day lower.

As the 1250 area held, a counter tend C1-C long (based on 1255-1250 big picture thinking) developed just before 9:30 at 1251.50 as price made it first retrace of the day higher to see if the 1252.75 intra-day high could be taken out which aligned nicely with the 1253.30 pullback to swing target from yesterday.

Going forward intraday structure is up, in conflict with a mechanical trend that is down, and we may have seen the best two trades of the day.

The bias is stay long for an expected move from 1250 back up to 1255 as this is not a C3 deep pullback sell area in a normal downtrend.

From here, I would look for chop trades inside 1255-1250 (price/volume sells will take time to develop), but on this last day of the year the trend may just continue higher above 1255 for the rest of the session, so you can trade with an up bias with C1-C price/volume buy pullbacks for as long as the uptrend continues and monitor the 1255 area.
 
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