Professional Day Trading

jjf

I'm right with you in the sense I dont (nor can't) predict anything.

I certainly have my expecations based on on the way price reacts at certain levels, and how this reaction fits in with the type of intra-day structure that is forming.

So I was on the same side of slightly north action all day today too.

Will we fail here at 1224...Who knows?

But if 1220 breaks, I'll look for 1216 until proven otherwise and on and on, and Ill place all such movement in the context of unfolding intra-day structure as well, etc...

So if the Macro trend turns down as you suggest (for me this is confrimed below 1200), then I'll see plenty of good short trades as this macro view unfolds Im sure.


Quote from jjf:

Don't give it another thought.

The only 100% winner is the guy who never trades ... we are only human and the market is infallible [sadly]

Today, we have price nibbling just north of the open with a very very slight north bias to the supply and demand of the session.

On a more macro scale the s&d bias is south suggesting we are all about to head south after the unwinding is more or less complete ... but as far as I am concerned this is all just chatter until price turns and then fails to recover.

I am just a price guy at the end of the day ...but s&d does bring a little background to the table in the manner of possibilities and cautions.

cheers
More...
 
TUES - 12-07-2010 (OVERNIGHT - OPEN)

MACRO - On the daily charts, this is was the ES's second chance to break out of the 1200-1050 bracket on the way to the 1280 area. With strong overnight up action it looks like this breakout is official and we are headed to the 1280 area, with the 1224 area as pullback to swing support.

OPEN - Overnight, price has moved straight up from 1220 to 1234, and as mentioned before, wide overnight price action can be tough to trade early because follow through momentum is tricky as price needs to consolidate. On this day, there is no immediate overhead resistance, and we have to monitor for a trend day up.

If a trend day up develops, I suspect there will be a consolidation sideways pattern at the open, that will eventually work its way higher, so you may want to watch for this price action before entering long.

There is plenty of room for price to pullback to 1224 and keep trend up, so will we will just have to see where the first move/first retrace take us all within the context of a potential trend day up until price can find where the patient sellers are located above.
 
TUES - 12-07-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 1)

GAP/FIRST MOVE/FIRST RETRACE - With caution to the upside after a large gap up with wide overnight price action, a fade the gap price-volume sell develops at 8:45 as price makes its first move of the day down which turns the trading trend down "with caution" because of the bigger picture breakout to the upside.

You can keep taking sell setups down to 1224 area, but if you see no follow through, on sell trades (breakeven results) and/or get stopped out, prepare to shift to the long side later when intra-day structure turns up---Price action and volume should lead the way higher to shift back to an upside bias in line with the bigger picture.
 
TUES - 12-07-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2)

SUMMARY - After one hour it was clear a trend day up wasn't forming and this day would start as a normal pullback after a gap up, and the best course of action was to follow the flow of developing intra-day structure.

This lead to early short trade opportunities through 11:30, a single long opportunity at 13:15 after the intra-day trend briefly turned up, and then more sell opportunities at 2:00, 2:10 when the trend turned back down again as price worked its way to the 1224 big picture support area after which time it made sense to stand aside for the rest of the trading session.
 

Attachments

WED - 12-08-2010 (OVERNIGHT - OPEN)

MACRO - On the daily charts, ES is still in the process of breaking out of the 1200-1050 bracket on the way to the 1280 area. At the moment there is responsive selling above 1230 (to 1235) and responsive buying below 1220 (to 1216), so it will be important to monitor price action as it approaches these two extremes to get a better feel for long term price direction. Until then expect a 1230-1220 type range-- waiting for a breakout up or down

OPEN - Overnight, price has moved down to the lower 1220 area. Even though yesterday looked like a daily reversal day down (gap up, close down), there needs to be follow through below 1220 to confirm this. Therefore at the open, take first the price/volume setup that develops (up or down) with some caution, and monitor the overnight highs or lows for both targets and follow through potential.

As of right now these highs and lows are 1124-1218 (with 1127 true resistance). It will be important to see how the first move/ retrace of the day develops in relation to these two areas and how this effects the mechanical downtrend that is now in place to guide trading for the rest of the session. (Note- If 1227 is taken out to the upside before the open, this will turn the mechanical trend up, and if not this could be a tough 1225-1220 choppy trading early until structure becomes more clear later in the session.
 
WED - 12-08-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 1)

GAP/FIRST MOVE/FIRST RETRACE - Price moved up to approach the 1227 area at the open and at 8:30 a price/volume long trade developed for small gains as the 1227 area was tested as the first move of the day moved up to 1228.75. A first retrace move below 1227 offered a price/volume sells at 9:00, 9:15 as price took out the intra-day lows at 1224.25 on the way down to the overnight lows near 1220.

Therefore, we start with an overall down bias as long as the 1227 area holds, but if there is no follow through below 1220 we will be in mechanical chop, which means cautionary chop trades for a while

If 1220 breaks look for 1216, and if 1216 breaks expect a push to 1206.

Early on, long sets ups will develop if price breaks the overnight highs near 1227, and later on, and uptrend can develop sooner if moves below 1220 fail.
 
WED - 12-08-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2)

SUMMARY - Another sell set up near 9:30 took price down to the 1220 area. Price couldn't follow through below 1220 and this alerted to look for price action between 1227-1220.

A long price/volume counter trend trade developed at 10:00 near 1222 as price worked up to the 1227 area. The mechanical trend turned up just when price reached the 1227 area, and this is an example of the big picture leading to way to mechanical caution for immediate new long trades. (i.e. Wait for deeper pullback and watch the most recent 1222 swing low area).

An aggressive price/volume countertrend sell off 1227 resistance developed around 11:40 at 1224.50 for small gains.

1222 area held on a pullback which led the way for more long trades to test intra-day/overnight highs in the 1127 area during a very slow moving up-bias, afternoon session.
 

Attachments

MACRO - On the daily charts, the ES has broken out of the 1200-1050 bracket on the way to the 1280 area.
Currently price is in a 1230-1216 consolidation area.

OPEN - (Rollover day to march contract) Ovenight action has taken ES up to 1230 area, so we will monitor this resistance point as Day Session Part 1 unfolds. Mechancial trend is up so place any opening long trades into a cautious gap up near resistanace context if no follow through takes place.

If a fade the gap sell develops target 1224 area support, and moniotor to see if price turns back up in line with big picture
direction.
 
12-09-2010 DAY SESSION PART 1

Gap/First Move/First Retrace - Price makes its first move of the day lower from the 1230 area with no fade the gap short set up. The first retrace move higher provides a long set up at 1227.75 for only small gains when price reaches the 1230 resistance area.

Price then moves down from 1230 to take out the 1226.25 intra-day lows to set up first hour structure down with conflict as long as price holds above 1224 support.

Therefore, wait for price action to swing higher before looking for C3 long buys and be careful of 1230 resistance (judge price action if price gets up there again).

Do not look for shorts until mechnical trend turns down below 1224 and/or a rejection of a 1230 breakout later in the session followed by a good counter-trend sell setup.

If 1230-1224 chop develops, look for a breakout later in the trading session.
 
12-09-2010 - DAY SESSION PART 2

A tough trading session as price mostly hovered around the key 1224 support area with very slow moving price action.

The logical trade decisions today were a short trade near 10:20 after 1224 first broke to downside (small swing gains), and a long trade at 12:47 (small loss) and 14:48 (small gain) after 1224 support held, and a new swing high developed.

Again, just a tough, slow trading day after price first gapped up higher to key resistance near 1230 and then spent a lot of time near the key 1224 support area before moving higher near the end of the trading session.
 
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