The eval companies also provide analytics for you so I can study those as well.
Problems countertrend trading the index futures
- Thread starter insomniactrader
- Start date
Agreed the sample size has to be large enough (and the trading time frame long enough) to provide a meaningful picture of what's happening.
WHAT? yesterday when US market just opened, NQ (and Russell 2000) was very trendy ie very easy to earn $$$.
those who continue to trade after that might be grinding their teeth.
and those who traded ES during the whole of US session might be grinding their teeth too.
identifying a trendy vs nontrendy market is extremely important.
I trade mini Russell not mini Naz but the question I ask everyday (once Globex ends) is where is the first minute, first 5 minutes and first 30 minutes bar midpoints at in relation to each other, and especially price, to determine trend and whether the trend is expanding or not.
Today's first minute and first 5 minute bar's midpoint basically overlapped, price popped then dropped through them. Then first 30 minutes bar close (marked with blue X) was much lower and below its own midpoint confirming trend at least, in the morning, was expected to be down.
I marked off, in hindsight of course, where my entries (red down arrows) and exits (green up arrows) might have been if I traded it today. Note actual entries and exits would have taken place on the following bar after the signal(s) themselves, which are trend bars that close below previous bar's low to go short and vice versa to cover/exit and flipped the other way to go long and exit if trend instead was up.
The trend did flip around later but since the morning scenario called for shorting I would have stepped aside for the day once the higher swing high took place @ 11:44am.
First trade looks like a scratch, 3 good ones then 3 more scratches. Kinda typical.
Now if only mini Russell cooperated today to. All 3 midpoints were down early on but then proceeded to trade above them all with no short opportunities to speak of.
Today's first minute and first 5 minute bar's midpoint basically overlapped, price popped then dropped through them. Then first 30 minutes bar close (marked with blue X) was much lower and below its own midpoint confirming trend at least, in the morning, was expected to be down.
I marked off, in hindsight of course, where my entries (red down arrows) and exits (green up arrows) might have been if I traded it today. Note actual entries and exits would have taken place on the following bar after the signal(s) themselves, which are trend bars that close below previous bar's low to go short and vice versa to cover/exit and flipped the other way to go long and exit if trend instead was up.
The trend did flip around later but since the morning scenario called for shorting I would have stepped aside for the day once the higher swing high took place @ 11:44am.
First trade looks like a scratch, 3 good ones then 3 more scratches. Kinda typical.
Now if only mini Russell cooperated today to. All 3 midpoints were down early on but then proceeded to trade above them all with no short opportunities to speak of.
Why are you trading counter-trend?
You should focus on capturing the trend instead, i.e., the larger moves.
You should focus on capturing the trend instead, i.e., the larger moves.
Have you thought that it's not a case of the 'evil institutions' out to get you rather your game-plan is weak becvause you keep falling for the tricks of the market.
Everyone knows the markets are perverse, and the price action more often than not tries to trick traders into doing the wrong thing at the wrong time. So a strong game-plan takes that into account and comes up with moves and plays that take advantage of the perversity.
Everyone knows the markets are perverse, and the price action more often than not tries to trick traders into doing the wrong thing at the wrong time. So a strong game-plan takes that into account and comes up with moves and plays that take advantage of the perversity.
Talk about yesterday NQ.
NQ was very trendy (ie very easy to trade) during early Eur and early US session.
subsequently, its movement / trend was unclear and as such, we should avoid trading
NQ.
I am not sure how you trade.
If you are Ok to show us the chart and indicate on it where you entered the trades, then I can better understand how you trade.
institutions are not to be blamed.
Institutions are like us in the sense that we want to profit from the market.
NQ was very trendy (ie very easy to trade) during early Eur and early US session.
subsequently, its movement / trend was unclear and as such, we should avoid trading
NQ.
I am not sure how you trade.
If you are Ok to show us the chart and indicate on it where you entered the trades, then I can better understand how you trade.
institutions are not to be blamed.
Institutions are like us in the sense that we want to profit from the market.
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Only take the second trade, ie get the market to prove itself first before shorting.
So price goes down and you get a short signal. Don't take it, just watch. If the market is heading lower (from the 1st potential short which you didn't take) it will more often than not, offer up a second short trade - TAKE THAT ONE.
if the market doesn't offer that second trade then you must start to think - hey, many people will have taken that first short trade and it doesn't look like working hence if we get a potential long setup, TAKE IT because 101 people will be offside (you would have been in that camp as well). The above works well. I myself used to get caught with these counter-trends.
Dunno, never trade a triple bottom the pros caught and caused the double, retail will spot and be confident about the triple, then watch bow quickly it breaks support to slip retails SLs and take more than they expected.
Then build that analysis into your trading plan.
If traders are worried about what the pros might do then why not learn how they trade and more importantly think and then build trading strategies that take advantage of that. Your and the pros positions will then be aligned...