So here I'm asking for comments about the difficulties I experience trying to recognize a trending NQ day in time to avoid ending up with a colossal loss. In my case I'm actually trying to pass a oneup trader evaluation. I had passed the $25k a month ago but blew the funded part after it had been going very well. I encounter the exact same problem, same scenario whenever 'that day' inevitably comes.
I trade one NQ contract/trade no matter if the eval/funded account is a 25K or $50K. The pattern has become sickeningly familiar and predictable. I have a string of great days, up to 10 or so. Then the day arrives when it's quite evident to me that the institutional manipulators are out in force taking it away from the 'small outsiders', i.e. I wait for a pullback, I enter, it struggles right where I entered then fails. After several attempts to (patiently!) wait for a good entry - and several failures - before I know it I've hit the maximum allowed daily drawdown. I stay in that last trade, feeling 'trapped' since if I jump out then no more trading allowed for that day. Which is probably a good thing. But I stay in it, getting more galled by the minute/hour as I watch the slow, steady, controlled drop with a series of red bars marking lower lows and lower highs. Death by 1000 cuts. Worst case always plays out the same - I hold on until the maximum allowable drawdown is hit, failing my evaluation. Then when they've taken me out it reverses and rises 100+ ticks!
So I'm fully prepared for someone here to dub me a dumb shit with no trading discipline and an irrational fear of shorting (well the markets are largely irrational anyway). Of course when I finally figure out I should've shorted it I venture into a short and gee, it reverses and I get burned on the short! Which reinforces my fear of shorting.
Countertrend trading is hard enough on the majority of days when the market 'allows' me to take profits, but those days when it appears obvious the institutions are controlling every movement and stop-hunting, I experience outright demoralizing setbacks.
I use only the RSI to determine entry points, (no other indicators since they're all lagging anyway) and price ladder/chart action to determine when to exit. Most days this works beautifully. But on the day where the countertrend trading fails, I lose weeks of profit. On the good days I typically net $3-500/day, so my method works under the conditions I face then. But that one dreaded day wipes all of it out. Watching the behavior of the NQ movement on that day leaves me with nothing but galling suspicion about what the institutional, large market-moving insiders are doing. Against people like me anyway, their strategy always works.
So my question is, what can I do about this state of affairs, to get by the strongly down-trending days without the devastating setbacks. Any suggestions from anyone here who is successfully trading a volatile instrument like the NQ would be greatly appreciated, so I thank you in advance.
I trade one NQ contract/trade no matter if the eval/funded account is a 25K or $50K. The pattern has become sickeningly familiar and predictable. I have a string of great days, up to 10 or so. Then the day arrives when it's quite evident to me that the institutional manipulators are out in force taking it away from the 'small outsiders', i.e. I wait for a pullback, I enter, it struggles right where I entered then fails. After several attempts to (patiently!) wait for a good entry - and several failures - before I know it I've hit the maximum allowed daily drawdown. I stay in that last trade, feeling 'trapped' since if I jump out then no more trading allowed for that day. Which is probably a good thing. But I stay in it, getting more galled by the minute/hour as I watch the slow, steady, controlled drop with a series of red bars marking lower lows and lower highs. Death by 1000 cuts. Worst case always plays out the same - I hold on until the maximum allowable drawdown is hit, failing my evaluation. Then when they've taken me out it reverses and rises 100+ ticks!
So I'm fully prepared for someone here to dub me a dumb shit with no trading discipline and an irrational fear of shorting (well the markets are largely irrational anyway). Of course when I finally figure out I should've shorted it I venture into a short and gee, it reverses and I get burned on the short! Which reinforces my fear of shorting.
Countertrend trading is hard enough on the majority of days when the market 'allows' me to take profits, but those days when it appears obvious the institutions are controlling every movement and stop-hunting, I experience outright demoralizing setbacks.
I use only the RSI to determine entry points, (no other indicators since they're all lagging anyway) and price ladder/chart action to determine when to exit. Most days this works beautifully. But on the day where the countertrend trading fails, I lose weeks of profit. On the good days I typically net $3-500/day, so my method works under the conditions I face then. But that one dreaded day wipes all of it out. Watching the behavior of the NQ movement on that day leaves me with nothing but galling suspicion about what the institutional, large market-moving insiders are doing. Against people like me anyway, their strategy always works.
So my question is, what can I do about this state of affairs, to get by the strongly down-trending days without the devastating setbacks. Any suggestions from anyone here who is successfully trading a volatile instrument like the NQ would be greatly appreciated, so I thank you in advance.
