probability

Quote from IV_Trader:

Good for you , JJ
BTW , 75/25 at 1:1 is only 50% monthly return. Sound very normal and reasonable for a zero sum game
:)
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Lets do the math with help from OpenOffice 2.0 Calc.
  • $1,000.00
  • $1,500.00
  • $2,250.00
  • $3,375.00
  • $5,062.50
  • $7,593.75
  • $11,390.63
  • $17,085.94
  • $25,628.91
  • $38,443.36
  • $57,665.04
  • $86,497.56
  • $129,746.34
$1000.00 to $129,746.34 in 12 months, I don't think that sort of return is "normal and reasonable".
 
Quote from forex-forex:

Lets do the math with help from OpenOffice 2.0 Calc.
  • $1,000.00
  • $1,500.00
  • $2,250.00
  • $3,375.00
  • $5,062.50
  • $7,593.75
  • $11,390.63
  • $17,085.94
  • $25,628.91
  • $38,443.36
  • $57,665.04
  • $86,497.56
  • $129,746.34
$1000.00 to $129,746.34 in 12 months, I don't think that sort of return is "normal and reasonable".
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Your math is flawed.

You don't double the number of contracts with each win. You increase them when you reach the appropriate risk levels.

JJ
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

Your math is flawed.

You don't double the number of contracts with each win. You increase them when you reach the appropriate risk levels.

JJ
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Even then 50% per month simple average is not normal . What sample size(months) are we looking at? It is easy to take a month or two and get an average. Before giving an average you should get enough data points (like 48 months!): you do not find an average of the good months and ignore the bad months in the calculation. And by the way, if there is something good in a method, there is no reason not to scale up proportionately.
 
Quote from neke:

Even then 50% per month simple average is not normal. What sample size(months) are we looking at? It is easy to take a month or two and get an average. Before giving an average you should get enough data points (like 48 months!): you do not find an average of the good months and ignore the bad months in the calculation. And by the way, if there is something good in a method, there is no reason not to scale up proportionately.
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Using the example of trading leveraged securties, 50% per month is very doable. Example for trading 1 ES contract:

a) 1 contract has a performance bond of $2,000 daytrading performance bond.
b) 1 contract can easily produce an average of $100 gain (that's 2pts) per day on a weekly basis.
c) so, with that $2,000, you can produce $500 per week, or $2,000 per month.
d) scalability is determined by managing the risk respresented by each contract, not by increasing the number of contracts according to the performance bond.

Trading each class of security has very specific criteria for how success is achieved trading it.

It's self-evident from the posts made that trading emini futures is not something which is understood very well by most traders on this board.

Good trading,

Jimmy Jam
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

Using the example of trading leveraged securties, 50% per month is very doable. Example for trading 1 ES contract:

a) 1 contract has a performance bond of $2,000 daytrading performance bond.
b) 1 contract can easily produce an average of $100 gain (that's 2pts) per day on a weekly basis.
c) so, with that $2,000, you can produce $500 per week, or $2,000 per month.
d) scalability is determined by managing the risk respresented by each contract, not by increasing the number of contracts according to the performance bond.

Trading each class of security has very specific criteria for how success is achieved trading it.

It's self-evident from the posts made that trading emini futures is not something which is understood very well by most traders on this board.

Good trading,

Jimmy Jam
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ROTFLMAO
 
Quote from forex-forex:

ROTFLMAO
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Yeah, me too assclown.
Quote from forex-forex:

Some products like YM,ES and NQ futures should trade 24/7 365 days a year.
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Thanks for your extremely intelligent insight.

Quote from forex-forex:

Do other people find the IB demo accounts to be buggy? On of my trailing stops wasn't activated on a CAD future contract.
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Please let us know how the paper trading works out.

JJ

P.S. ... and make up your mind on your reply, fucktard.
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

Yeah, me too assclown.

Thanks for your extremely intelligent insight.



Please let us know how the paper trading works out.

JJ

P.S. ... and make up your mind on your reply, fucktard.
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ROFLMAOAPMP
 
Easy. All you have to do is misuse mathematics by predicting the behavior of nonexistent prices in the nonexistent future.

Statistics describes the past. What might happen in the future is an opinion.

________________________________________

Wow, out of all post by the Elite Trash, brokers, and 9 to 5ers on this site, I finally read something that makes sense.

Thank G-d there is one voice of reason out of the billion idiots who post.

Congrats!:cool:
 
Quote from artes:

The CBOE exchange publishes the percentange numbers of options who expires worthless

#"70% of options expire worthless to the buyer! That means 70% expire profitable to the seller."
http://www.futures-trading-systems.net/articles/the-myth-of-option-expiry.htm #
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You should have kept reading. Later on that same page you linked:

The CME numbers are based on options that are held to expiry. That is they do not include options that are exercised or closed before expiry - and that's 60-70% of all options according to the CBOE.
...
Furthermore, coming to the conclusion that is it better to be a seller than a buyer from a single biased statistic like this is plain nonsense.
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Besides, winning 70% of the time still doesn't guarantee you a profit. We trade for cash, not for winning percentage.
 
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