Probability of Success in Spreads

[oldnemesis]

"Tom Sosnoff is a flour trader at CBOE for about years and years before he began to built ToS."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZooRSjoOU3o

Where does one trade flour??? Must be a commodities exchange.

 

[drcha]

Isn't the expected value of most options trades (spreads or not) close to zero?

I'm not sure you can alter that fact that by bailing early, since you will be bailing out of both winners AND losers--you just won't know which.

Unless you can be right (more often than chance) about the direction of price or the direction of volatility, you cannot make money trading options. You are better off trying to perfect your prediction skills by using some type of fundamental or technical analysis than fussing with all those legs and adjustments and fancy trades. In the long run, you cannot adjust your way to profits.

And yes, one can make money buying options. I have been doing it for years.

 

[kicker81]

"Tom Sosnoff is a flour trader at CBOE for about years and years before he began to built ToS."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZooRSjoOU3o

Where does one trade flour??? Must be a commodities exchange.

flour trader, floor trader, who cares?
u know what i mean LoL

 

[kicker81]

Isn't the expected value of most options trades (spreads or not) close to zero?

I'm not sure you can alter that fact that by bailing early, since you will be bailing out of both winners AND losers--you just won't know which.

Unless you can be right (more often than chance) about the direction of price or the direction of volatility, you cannot make money trading options. You are better off trying to perfect your prediction skills by using some type of fundamental or technical analysis than fussing with all those legs and adjustments and fancy trades. In the long run, you cannot adjust your way to profits.

And yes, one can make money buying options. I have been doing it for years.

Yess, u right. option buyer can make money but then lose again. LoL

 

[Windlesham1]

It really sickens me that traders snipe at each other-why do we not try to be supportive? I have always tried to help others-the industry relies on an army of clueless dimwits giviong money to fund managers who are hopeless- why? Because naysayers like so many here make trading look so miserable.
People-we really should be trying to get together and getting together online costs nothing. I have stopped posting on Motley Fool as their membership has dwindled,and this site will die too. I make money with options by buying and selling them, but I don't trade nakeds.