Probability of Next Trade

Quote from intradaybill:

A Markov process such as the one you described is memoryless.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_process
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It can be proven if P(a)*p(b)=P(A intersect B)

I don't believe this is something you can conclude on face value. By the way if you've ever waited for the market to hit your bid and then keep chasing it to have only missed beautiful price run, you can at least imagine how his example would hold.
 
"There are beliefs held by some traders that are likely wrong. Some say that after
a string of losing trades success on the next trade is more likely, so position size on the next trade should be increased. According to Larry Williams: “After you have had 3 or 4 losing trades in a row, the probability of the next trade being
not only a winner but a substantial winner is way in your favor.” This may
or may not be true in trading, but for most random events like flipping coins, it is definitely not true."
 
why guess when we can do analysis of actual trade results and know? pull out the actual (real money) results from your last hundred trades and run the analysis i suggested. this is not that complicated...

Quote from SnakeEYE:

"There are beliefs held by some traders that are likely wrong. Some say that after
a string of losing trades success on the next trade is more likely, so position size on the next trade should be increased. According to Larry Williams: �After you have had 3 or 4 losing trades in a row, the probability of the next trade being
not only a winner but a substantial winner is way in your favor.� This may
or may not be true in trading, but for most random events like flipping coins, it is definitely not true."
More...
 
Quote from AdamG_SMB:

why guess when we can do analysis of actual trade results and know? pull out the actual (real money) results from your last hundred trades and run the analysis i suggested. this is not that complicated...
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No thanks.I don`t need to spam my mind with your analysis.

BLASH and SHABL about 90%

BHASH and SLABL about 10%

That`s all i need to know
 
:) haha. I actually lol'd at this one. Thanks for the late night laugh.

Quote from SnakeEYE:

No thanks.I don`t need to spam my mind with your analysis.

BLASH and SHABL about 90%

BHASH and SLABL about 10%

That`s all i need to know
More...
 
Quote from AdamG_SMB:

:) haha. I actually lol'd at this one. Thanks for the late night laugh.
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Your next probability is right here:

>>>>>>(_I_)<<<<<<

Do you recognize the symbol?:D

Always keep it in front of you while calculating your next move:D
 
Quote from SnakeEYE:

Your next probability is right here:

>>>>>>(_I_)<<<<<<

Do you recognize the symbol?:D

Always keep it in front of you while calculating your next move:D
More...

Or better yet:

>>>>>>(_*_)<<<<<<

:D
 
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