Probability Lab

Quote from Baywolf:

def, Great start. If I could build my custom PD curves faster that would be great. One idea would be to draw by dragging across the x axis, or some other mechanism to recenter or shift the PD, rather than adjusting each individual strike bar.
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We'll do that.
 
If this tool does nothing else than to get people to think about maximizing payoff (payoff = probability*(reward/risk)) instead of maximizing probability alone, then I would say it is definitely a good feature IB had introduced.
 
Why not integrate all the option tools you currently have, i,e option strategy lab (which is better that the risk navigator but lacks the functionality), risk navigator, probability lab for options & options trader. Or better still, get rid of the outdated risk navigator and use the option strategy lab as the basis for a new options trading tool.
 
Quote from Mozart40:

The most useless options tool I've ever come across. It is so typical for IB to provide useless or incomplete tools in their TWS.
How do you expect a retail trader to be able to forecast the possibilities distribution of dozens of price ranges for an underlying? It is hard enough just to try to forecast the upper and lower limits of a price range.
You want to help us, options traders? Then put all your efforts in the Risk Simulator portion of TWS. Make it more intuitive, improve its medieval graphics, enable it to launch directly spread orders not separate useless options orders as presently, enable it to perform Beta weighting of portfolios, and of course have Optionstrader integrated fully with the simulator as one tool.
This is what you guys need to do. Stop wasting your time and ours.
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You quote the spread or combo in TWS and then right click to what-if the position. I'll admit that the new PL function is pointless for me. A newb can slice an ATM combo for area under the curve.

A manipulative with touch prob would be a bit more useful, but also not necessary. I agree that I'd rather see a robust risknav with a beta-weighted SPX delta prominently displayed.

I trade a family portfolio exceeding $22MM (fu haters) at IB and have very few complaints.
 
i recommend IB spend time to finish its chart. the current chart tool is childish. I have experience in java programming, i know it is not hard to write a chart tool. i do not know why IB is so incompetent in this regard.
 
Quote from Baywolf:

def, Great start. If I could build my custom PD curves faster that would be great. One idea would be to draw by dragging across the x axis, or some other mechanism to recenter or shift the PD, rather than adjusting each individual strike bar.
More...

TWS beta 943, which was out for few days, now have small up/down arrows next to custom forward price and volatility, clicking on which you can provide fine adjustments to the overall forward price or volatility. Also, you can grab+drag the whole PD curve left and right (this will adjust your price on larger scale) and up/down (will adjust volatility). There are few more changes related to Probability Lab, see full list in TWS beta notes here https://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/software/releaseNotes/Betanotes2.php.
 
Quote from dst:

TWS beta 943, which was out for few days, now have small up/down arrows next to custom forward price and volatility, clicking on which you can provide fine adjustments to the overall forward price or volatility. Also, you can grab+drag the whole PD curve left and right (this will adjust your price on larger scale) and up/down (will adjust volatility). There are few more changes related to Probability Lab, see full list in TWS beta notes here https://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/software/releaseNotes/Betanotes2.php.
More...

Thank you for this update, this is exactly what I was hoping for. Being able to drag the PD curve left/right is a major boost to productivity.
 
Could be a fantastic trading platform for quantitative probability traders. Since the underlying probability distributions contain very significant skewness and kurtosis the user must be able to enter the skewness and kurtosis of his/her probability distribution. Otherwise the payoff can not be computed quantitatively.

It would also be helpful to know how the probability trader calculates the probability distribution since there can be differences between constrained and unconstrained methods.

It would also be helpful to have a programming interface. Is this in the works?

Ron Blanken
Sci2Tech Inc
 
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