who thinks this guy just wanted to share the wonders of whatever bands here and who thinks he's looking to sell more copies of his blabla software? consider this a poll.
Probability Bands
- Thread starter protradingsys
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I thought we all knew that. It was interesting to me though. I have found lots of stuff here in ET.
Now, if it goes on and on like a Bright Trading Seminar, then Magna will close this thread if he doesn't pay for advertising.
Michael B.
Now, if it goes on and on like a Bright Trading Seminar, then Magna will close this thread if he doesn't pay for advertising.
Michael B.
i have seen a trader on-line use this system and call tops and bottoms extremely accurately for futures indexes. i was always in awe of his "magic formula," now i know where he got it: probability bands!
to those who are bashing already for this guy offering his system for a free trial, relax a bit...i think this could be an interesting thread(at least to me, I would like to see the results of the bands)...but whatever,i understand the angst....
protrade: could you post a daily update of the bands for an index or two rather than the perfect trades it created? that would be very interesting to see.
thanks,
sa xi
to those who are bashing already for this guy offering his system for a free trial, relax a bit...i think this could be an interesting thread(at least to me, I would like to see the results of the bands)...but whatever,i understand the angst....
protrade: could you post a daily update of the bands for an index or two rather than the perfect trades it created? that would be very interesting to see.
thanks,
sa xi
I could post 50+ charts every day where stocks or indexes/sectors bounce right off these levels. I didn't invent them and most traders do not even know what they are. I first learned about them in a Kevin Haggerty course and he used them while trading for Fidelity. I believe one of the reasons they do work so well is that the institutions wait for these levels before doing their buying/selling. Just another tool, like the pivot points which I also use, to help give you a higher edge.
If your system has 10 cent losers and averages 40 cent winners, for example, you only need to be right 20-25% of the time to break even (depending on commission level). I have found, for me, one of the keys to successful trading is keeping your losses as small as possible and one way to do that is to enter a trade at a point where if it gets violated you KNOW you are wrong.
If your system has 10 cent losers and averages 40 cent winners, for example, you only need to be right 20-25% of the time to break even (depending on commission level). I have found, for me, one of the keys to successful trading is keeping your losses as small as possible and one way to do that is to enter a trade at a point where if it gets violated you KNOW you are wrong.
Hello:
I took Kevin Haggerty's seminar years ago. Still have the original workbook and worksheets showing how to set up the grid the gentleman uses. The "probability" bands that Haggerty proposed are simply common sense. They or variations of them are used throughout the trading community. As has been mentioned the baseline is calculated and bands are set to correspond with 1st second and third deviation if you want. In theory 66% of price action takes place inside the first band. I have no problem with this. Use it, don't use it. You still have to make a decision as price moves toward or away from these areas. You still have to recognize when professional money is coming in to support the move past the "bands" and when it is absent and then price has a good chance of respecting the band and bouncing off. As far as using the grid/sector information, I use it myself today in a modified form. In my opinion, what separates money makers from break even or losers is the ability to make good decisions as price moves into these areas. You have to 1. find a place to enter or exit, and 2. establish and respect your stops. Unfortunately most traders simply don't know how to do either. As many of you know I trade the ES. The sector grid is of limited use (except for bond prices ) with indices because of the way business is done using the S&P to hedge and to speculate. If you are using it to help trade stock, it can be useful. Simply look for supporting signals on the 60 min, the 15 min, the sector and finally the stock to confirm the signal. Works better than 60 percent of the time if you have the discipline and use good money management.By the way, I used to simply calculate the bands manually (good math practice) and keep them in my head (traded a small number of stocks). If the software helps, great. Best To All, Steve46
I took Kevin Haggerty's seminar years ago. Still have the original workbook and worksheets showing how to set up the grid the gentleman uses. The "probability" bands that Haggerty proposed are simply common sense. They or variations of them are used throughout the trading community. As has been mentioned the baseline is calculated and bands are set to correspond with 1st second and third deviation if you want. In theory 66% of price action takes place inside the first band. I have no problem with this. Use it, don't use it. You still have to make a decision as price moves toward or away from these areas. You still have to recognize when professional money is coming in to support the move past the "bands" and when it is absent and then price has a good chance of respecting the band and bouncing off. As far as using the grid/sector information, I use it myself today in a modified form. In my opinion, what separates money makers from break even or losers is the ability to make good decisions as price moves into these areas. You have to 1. find a place to enter or exit, and 2. establish and respect your stops. Unfortunately most traders simply don't know how to do either. As many of you know I trade the ES. The sector grid is of limited use (except for bond prices ) with indices because of the way business is done using the S&P to hedge and to speculate. If you are using it to help trade stock, it can be useful. Simply look for supporting signals on the 60 min, the 15 min, the sector and finally the stock to confirm the signal. Works better than 60 percent of the time if you have the discipline and use good money management.By the way, I used to simply calculate the bands manually (good math practice) and keep them in my head (traded a small number of stocks). If the software helps, great. Best To All, Steve46
could you let us know how to calculate the bands? thanks
Hey:
One more thing before I go out and have a life. For those who are simply interested in the subject, great, God bless you. For the rest of us, I think it is true that we want to find a way to make a living. You have to realize by now that money is not made with a piece of software, or with a system for calculating bands. Money is made by looking inside yourself, identifying what it is that keeps you from making good decisions and correcting that item. Seems like people look everywhere but in the right place. This is why seminars, charting packages, trading systems, pivots, etc dont work for most of us. The one effective way to learn to make money is to find someone who knows how and to model how they do it. In the process you have to overcome your own tendency to screw up. Im going to go see a movie. Good luck in the markets, Steve46
One more thing before I go out and have a life. For those who are simply interested in the subject, great, God bless you. For the rest of us, I think it is true that we want to find a way to make a living. You have to realize by now that money is not made with a piece of software, or with a system for calculating bands. Money is made by looking inside yourself, identifying what it is that keeps you from making good decisions and correcting that item. Seems like people look everywhere but in the right place. This is why seminars, charting packages, trading systems, pivots, etc dont work for most of us. The one effective way to learn to make money is to find someone who knows how and to model how they do it. In the process you have to overcome your own tendency to screw up. Im going to go see a movie. Good luck in the markets, Steve46
Hello,
Here are the Probability Levels for tomorrow Monday May 17th, 2004.
95H= 95% Probable High
88H= 88% Probable High
80H= 80% Probable High
65H= 65% Probable High
65L= 65% Probable Low
80L= 80% Probable Low
88L= 88% Probable Low
95L= 95% Probable Low
Please Note: Many days Indexes, Sectors, and stocks do not touch any of these levels but when they do they often either consolidate or bounce off of them.
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