Principia de Technical Analysis

To what can we attribute the seemingly random though intuitively non-random movements of the market? Bloomberg radio/TV supposes that the market is news driven, and furthermore based on the collective forward-looking opinions of all investors. Pure fundamental anlaysis (if there is such a thing) assumes earnings are the sole mover of markets. For Elite Traders, certainly too savy a bunch to accept either of the aforementioned, seem not to care. Technical analysis does not utilize a causal approach. Rather, it seems, it is based on the developement of a system which captures the result of market movement without knowing its cause. Would it not be useful in developing such a system to ponder the causes of market movement?

Certainly capital dynamics, as in the distribution of capital to potential investors, play a role. The method of capital input too would come into play.

Admittedly, my ideas on this matter are less than cohesive, but as any trader must be, I am interested in expanding my understanding of the market. What I propose here is a ground-up logical approach to understanding the behaviour of men and women when faced with investing/trading opportunities.

Accedere dialecticus...
 
Quote from rlb21079:

Would it not be useful in developing such a system to ponder the causes of market movement?

It's been done. See Wyckoff, Livermore, Neill, Dunnigan, Magee et al.

--Db
 
Quote from dbphoenix:


Wyckoff, Livermore, Neill, Dunnigan, Magee et al.
--Db

Livermore I know from Reminiscences and the other "real" biography, the latter of which I thought was poor.

Would you care to share your thoughts on Wyckoff, Neill, Dunnigan, and/or Magee? I could read them too but maybe your condensed version might save some time.
 
Quote from rlb21079:

To what can we attribute the seemingly random though intuitively non-random movements of the market? Bloomberg radio/TV supposes that the market is news driven, and furthermore based on the collective forward-looking opinions of all investors. Pure fundamental analysis (if there is such a thing) assumes earnings are the sole mover of markets. For Elite Traders, certainly too savy a bunch to accept either of the aforementioned, seem not to care. Technical analysis does not utilize a causal approach. Rather, it seems, it is based on the developement of a system which captures the result of market movement without knowing its cause. Would it not be useful in developing such a system to ponder the causes of market movement?

Certainly capital dynamics, as in the distribution of capital to potential investors, play a role. The method of capital input too would come into play.

Admittedly,my ideas on this matter are less than cohesive, but as any trader must be, I am interested in expanding my understanding of the market. What I propose here is a ground-up logical approach to understanding the behaviour of men and women when faced with investing/trading opportunities.

Accedere dialecticus...


it appears that you are seeking to exploit persistent psychological biases in the financial markets. may i suggest to you:

against the gods--- bernstein

the predictors-- bass

education of a speculator-- niederhoffer

practical speculation--- niederhoffer

extraordinary popular delusions--- mackay

beyond greed and fear--- shrefin

advances in behavioral finance-- thaler

fooled by randomness--- taleb


these volumes will be a good start on your journey to an understanding of price.

best,

surfer:)
 
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