Price TA Identified The Top Before 500 Point Drop Yesterday..

[Scataphagos]

Again, would have been useful to post this before the fact, not after.

Now, call what's next...

You want to know "before the fact, what to watch for", eh?

Well here it is....
1. The declining tops line (with arrows) may reverse the market down again, if tested
2. The matched high from yesterday may reverse the market, if tested
3. The resistance line at about 18630 may reverse the market, if tested
4. The highs at 18700 may reverse the market, if tested.

Could be that none of them reverse the market and blasts up through

There. Now you know what I know.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I wish my broker would let me trade yesterday's chart. LOL.

 

[schizo]

Another one of his frivolous threads

 

[murray t turtle]

I wish my broker would let me trade yesterday's chart. LOL.

%%
LOL/exactly;
mine does not .
So i averaged slightly less size today \
+ green 50 dma again[.50dma is like arrows ,pointing the way somewhat] ...................................................[I would not have cut back a bit , if i had done what i wanted, YESterday...]
One trader asked ''is that word salad ?''
I reminded him ''no vegetables is bad for you''
And reminded him i dont work for 40 years for a gold watch exit{NOt a real common pattern now,LOL}

 

[NoahA]

As others have pointed out, there are multiple way to draw this trendline. Some use the top of the wick, others use the body, and that really makes quite a difference.

But if we are to take a position based on this cyan line poking, what about all the other possible trendlines up to this point? There is also the green and red ones that are valid. And if we look at the previous top, where we can also draw trendlines, we have to assume that we take positions here as well on the third touches (since you need the first two points to set up the trendline) This means that we can easily have a total of at least 6 short trades on this chart based on trendline touches and most didn't lead to the juicy drop.

But don't get me wrong, I love the price action analysis. Its just that trendlines are very subjective and since you never know which one works, you have to look at all combinations and take a trade at each one, unless you have a very good trigger entry method that would somehow keep you out of some of these losers.

 

[Pricechange]

he seems to have called a Top in his subject line..lol

In reality...different Fed members are "jaw boning" about caution of lowering rates too soon and causing sudden quick drops like this. It may get choppy for a month or two. The jaw boning probably necessary because the market is already pricing in the rate cuts. They may jaw bone all through april/may.

But...we know the 3 rate cuts are going to happen this summer. The US cant afford this level of debt service. And the market will buy each of the dips.

 

[schizo]

As others have pointed out, there are multiple way to draw this trendline. Some use the top of the wick, others use the body, and that really makes quite a difference.

But if we are to take a position based on this cyan line poking, what about all the other possible trendlines up to this point? There is also the green and red ones that are valid. And if we look at the previous top, where we can also draw trendlines, we have to assume that we take positions here as well on the third touches (since you need the first two points to set up the trendline) This means that we can easily have a total of at least 6 short trades on this chart based on trendline touches and most didn't lead to the juicy drop.

But don't get me wrong, I love the price action analysis. Its just that trendlines are very subjective and since you never know which one works, you have to look at all combinations and take a trade at each one, unless you have a very good trigger entry method that would somehow keep you out of some of these losers.

View attachment 337626

Nobody's faulting the OP for his use of the trendlines. It's his constant HINDSIGHT ANALYSIS that is giving everyone the hernia. Had he made his damn call a day before yesterday, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. But as a noob that he is, he can't help himself but think that his readers are equally as gullible as himself.

 

[maxinger]

This is a better hindsight analysis.

Explanation :

prior to 1 - price move undecisively
1 to 2 - NQ went down with strong momentum
2 to 3 - retracement
3 to 4 - continuation
4 to 5 - retracement
etc etc etc


Enter just after the end of retracement / after point 3.

DO NOT LOOK AT HISTORICAL CHART!!!!
DO NOT LOOK AT CHART BEFORE 4 APR 2024!!!
FOCUS ON TODAY CHART!!!!


_________________________

Now do the same hindsight analysis for 5 Apr 2024 NQ chart where
NQ went up 400 points!!!!

Again,
DO NOT LOOK AT HISTORICAL CHART!!!!
DO NOT LOOK AT CHART BEFORE 5 APR 2024!!!
FOCUS ON TODAY CHART!!!!
_____________________

 

[tony.m]

prior to 1 - price move undecisively
1 to 2 - NQ went down with strong momentum
2 to 3 - retracement
3 to 4 - continuation
4 to 5 - retracement
etc etc etc

As you have already mentioned few time this type of trading have a high rate of fail trades.

*(The 2 in the middle should be 1)

 

[maxinger]

As you have already mentioned few time this type of trading have a high rate of fail trades.

View attachment 337657
*(The 2 in the middle should be 1)

I trade differently from OP, professional writers/talkers ...
Also, different traders label their charts differently.


Notice I drew the purple vertical line?
I wouldn't pay much attention to what happened to the left side of the purple line;
the Americans have their mind and they don't like to 'follow up' from the Europeans.
That's why I commented
'Do not look at the Historical chart!'.

I draw about 10 to 20 purple lines/day to trade the various futures.
And I use Intermarket correlations to improve the success rate.
Definitely, for the way I trade, there will be some failures.