Price Pays….but….

K

KGTrader4

I’ve read, in a million places, and I’ve read, from a million people smarter than me, that “price pays” and it’s the only thing that matters. And don’t go long against the trend. And other stuff like that.

but does anyone think what I think? It seems to me, that this is our current situation….
war with no end in sight
Potential for nukes OMFG
COLD WAR IS BACK AND GETTING HOT
Russia looking more and more like it will default on debt
Inflation heating up to say the least.
Comparison with Covid slowdown in earnings fading away, comps will be harder
NAZ already got killed. So many quality growth stocks killed and…
So much of the excesses squeezed out of the market.

so we know all this already. Which means it’s baked in. How much worse can it get? So even if you aren't a buy and hold forever guy, why is it not time to rebuild positions.

I’ve been at my lowest (I’m talking about my long term portfolio) equity exposure in my adult life for 3 months now, 35%, and it’s making me nervous LOL.

DISCUSS?
 
KGTrader4 said:
...

so we know all this already. Which means it’s baked in. How much worse can it get?...
More...

Nothing is baked in when it comes to a war, I have learned. The Fed meeting next week be the litmus test. Let's see how baked-in that shit really was, with the new inflation print and Ukraine war. You saw the market reaction on Friday with the great NFP print. It didn't budge anyone from the bear-trend.

It's going to get a lot worse for equities. "Baked-in" and "Priced-in" are terms people use to give positivity to markets when they think they are at a bottom. It's a fallacy. NOTHING is "priced-in". You can see that with every new headline, and the market action that follows.
 
There will be no war, don't be silly. Re valuations, it does not matter how far from the top stocks sold off. It matters how far they are from fair value. And that may mean another 50 percent or more down for many tech stocks.

KGTrader4 said:
I’ve read, in a million places, and I’ve read, from a million people smarter than me, that “price pays” and it’s the only thing that matters. And don’t go long against the trend. And other stuff like that.

but does anyone think what I think? It seems to me, that this is our current situation….
war with no end in sight
Potential for nukes OMFG
COLD WAR IS BACK AND GETTING HOT
Russia looking more and more like it will default on debt
Inflation heating up to say the least.
Comparison with Covid slowdown in earnings fading away, comps will be harder
NAZ already got killed. So many quality growth stocks killed and…
So much of the excesses squeezed out of the market.

so we know all this already. Which means it’s baked in. How much worse can it get? So even if you aren't a buy and hold forever guy, why is it not time to rebuild positions.

I’ve been at my lowest (I’m talking about my long term portfolio) equity exposure in my adult life for 3 months now, 35%, and it’s making me nervous LOL.

DISCUSS?
More...
 
Yeah, I know it can get worse. Always. The market can do anything. I’m not trying to do anything stupid, like call a bottom. it’s what we don’t know that can hurt us though, not what we already know.

yeah the only piece of the market that looks good right now, is energy.

I’m just rambling, thinking out loud. There has to be less risk now in buying say, SPY, just for arguments sake, than there was 2 months ago, just by virtue of the fact that prices are down.

im not saying it’s time to go all in. I’m not that much of a noob. But when it comes to the investment piece (as opposed to the trading piece) maybe it’s time to start nibbling, slowly, in small bites.
My trading piece remains all cash
 
From a macro TA perspective markets are actually holding up pretty well overall relatively speaking. It's difficult to be extremely bearish from a day trading perspective at these levels though, since we're near a perceived double bottom if nothing else and we've fallen pretty far from the ATH's, prime time for short squeezes (which we've seen quite a few fairly brutal ones the past few days).

This part is purely anecdotal, but it does seem like more people are aware of buy the dip than ever and while some people are panicing. I also seem a fair amount of people calm and still bullish on equities.... so from that perspective I still think it creates more pain to go lower before we move too much higher.

Just my two cents. I am no macro expert though, focus mainly on intra-day trading divergence.
 
I went back to the sidelines. Waiting for the Ruble-Russia default with the payment grace periods ending in late April.

For swing trades, sidelines are the best place now, imo. Short term shorts etc, are OK, but I think the better play for swing trades will be to wait until the 50 EMA on the indexes level out and we see a spike up, and pull back, then enter then.

Day trading is another story. Lots of opportunities for the right strategies.
 
Bad_Badness said:
I went back to the sidelines. Waiting for the Ruble-Russia default with the payment grace periods ending in late April.

For swing trades, sidelines are the best place now, imo. Short term shorts etc, are OK, but I think the better play for swing trades will be to wait until the 50 EMA on the indexes level out and we see a spike up, and pull back, then enter then.

Day trading is another story. Lots of opportunities for the right strategies.
More...

You win the smartest-post-of-the-day ET award, issued yearly, never. You are exactly right. The time to go swing long is going to be when Putin cries uncle. Until then, VIX 30+ will be an everyday event.
 
KGTrader4 said:
I’ve been at my lowest (I’m talking about my long term portfolio) equity exposure in my adult life for 3 months now, 35%, and it’s making me nervous LOL.

DISCUSS?
More...
Not sure where your 65% is, mine is in cash, and I'm sitting watching the market slowly trend lower and not losing a cent. Why would you be nervous.
 
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