Price foretells tsunami wave lambda

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Quote from deadbroke:

CNBC celebs were abuzz about Vix strength. Scott Wapner is the only one with no ego whatsoever.

Vix daily is just shy of 200-day m.a. So if there is some sort of nasdaq/Dow market rebound next week they will attribute all sorts of reasons for this.

To me the reason would just be the 200-day m.a. resistance. I'm just a simpleton, what the heck do I know?


:) :D


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There is a post right after this one on page 5 that answered the 200-day m.a. hit that also ack-ed my previous mistakes on Dow. This perspective is good because it verifies that I'm just another clown trying to figure out the 2nd greatest index in the world.

In the updated Vix daily, note the same 161.8% target shown in Dow Jones chart in earlier post. Also note the Vix bullmarket line.
A solid breakout above this line will beckon page #1 and #2 of this thread as the downward acceleration stage begins.

So basically we have 2 important lines, the first being the 161.8% level in Vix = Dow continuation rally and the 2nd line, the Vix bullmarket line = Dow crash.

Trend mechanics applied to Vix daily gives a clear answer ...

Vix trend is still DOWN

Laws of trend in force ....

(1) The trend tends to continue

(2) Trend can end at any time without notice.

With answers like that, no wonder we're screwed! :D


 
deadbroke's trusted macro indicator derivation using Ratio Analysis:

data easily available from St. Louis FED, then converted into Metastock data for anal-ysis. :)

components

(1) Moody's BAA corp. bond yield daily data

(2) 30-yr Treasury bond yield (from Yahoo finance)

Formula: (1)/(2) i.e. simple division with 1:1 weights in the Downoader.

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acknowledging the source first ......

saw versions of the TED spread, wasn't impressed, then saw a Corp. bond yield versus 10-yr bond yield from Elliottwave Int. in one of their freeweeks, took it from there and tried out all sorts of bond yield combos versus the 10 and 30-yr TB yields ..

note: now don't go subscribing to those clowns - they are even worse market timers than I am, so not recommended. In fact strongly frowned upon as death would occur swiftly.

sorry EWI, dig Bobby but he can kill quicker than George Bush.

:)
 
error - its subtraction, not division in the formula - terribly sorry.

Division needs more thorough checkout.

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Nasdaq comp. wave A October 2002 low = Composite's top

While Americans were loading up on credit and buying stuff like there was no tomorrow, UNIVERSAL CLOWN Hank Paulson said that this was the best, strongest economy he'd ever seen in his entire career, the COMPOSITE silently broke-out on July 25, 2007. The bunching of long-term m.a.s and the breakout above the 200 day were coincident and acted as confirming indicators.

That July breakout was the warning as can be seen, albeit only in hindsight, from the funky Dow or S&P daily move between July07 and October07, the crash top.

The sheer near-vertical move of the Composite to Sept 17, 2007 was yet another warning. Then on the recovery wave reversing and taking out the Sept07 top, the game was over and that's exactly how it went down.

 
Composite's breakdown on 4-30-09 was approx. equal to Nasdaq taking out the wave high although an earlier TSP and go Long signal from Nas could have been taken by trendlineX, which is not visible in the Composite.

Composite data only upto 2-17. Shows NO sign of reversal
 
Quote from dandxg:

Last post of VIX chopped recent price action oops. Correct version
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True, but doesn't count by MY method, which assigns it as an internal wave overlap; if it is the last wave, then lucky, if not, then whipsaw city on closing the Vix short prematurely.

Vix Short ongoing since April 9, 2009.

:)
 
Quote from deadbroke:

True, but doesn't count by MY method, which assigns it as an internal wave overlap; if it is the last wave, then lucky, if not, then whipsaw city on closing the Vix short prematurely.

Vix Short ongoing since April 9, 2009.

:)
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Vix Short ongoing since April 9, 2009 still ongoing ....

Vix northbound breakout guidelines .....

(1) most important .... a solid close above 27.31 as shown

(2) black trendline and grey parallel channel breakouts

(3) 200 m.a. (green) must then act as support.

(4) TA requires some sort of REVERSAL PATTERN - I see the potential double-bottom thus far - if there is to be more downside, then maybe a rounding bottom or cup with handle .. ?

But my expectation is for a solid breakout northbound to set in motion my page 1 CALL.

Significance of this call .... all personal finances in my life are geared to exactly what I've posted in this thread & my Forex thread - no debts, no real estate, holding only $ and Yen, all businesses liquidated etc., etc., etc., as preparations are now totally complete for the next most important leg down of the BEAR.

If I'm right, then great, sooner or later I'll be able to add short-term leveraged trading ability (thus far elusive and evanescent) to this long-term life play. If I'm wrong on everything, it will show up here too, clear as day.

So this is MY CALL.

 
For my Call to be correct, Dow Jones must do the following ....

(1) Trendline thru' Feb 5, 2010 low must break on strong volume

(2) Wave closing low of Feb 8 must crack

(3) 200 m.a. then acts as resistance to a rally attempt.

(4) Confirmation must come from Nas, S&P & Trannies.

(5) Vix must confirm

only then is my CALL in motion.

 
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