Quote from panzerman:
And there in lies the fundamental problem with technical analysis. What defines a trend? When does a trend end, and when does it begin? Is a pullback a pullback or the start of a trend reversal?Trading with the trend works, until it doesn't. When it works, and when it doesn't are random events in time.
Also, any entry method should be thought of as part of a trading system. A backtest of the trading system will reveal if it has positive expectancy
Quote from HurricaneUS:
The irony of it all is that if surf only took signals in the direction of the trend then they would most likely work even better....why?..because when a "true tradable" trend is in place and gets going....nothing..and I mean nothing **exaggerrating a bit**...can stop it....it is PREORDAINED....(there is something else which pushes trends that is likely related to physics and that has not yet been figured out by the academics )...so if you just blindly closed your eyes and took a trade then it would also work
Exhibit A...surf's 600 point winner with the trend which he attributes to his Price Driver signal but I attribute instead to trading along with the trend in which any random signal would have also worked
Quote from HurricaneUS:
I have my own method for identifying the trend that works very well but I'm, of course, not at liberty to discuss.
So it can be done...hint: start with the most elementary definition of a trend and work your way in that direction (and no I'm not talking higher highs and higher lows or any of that Al Brooks garbage).
Why does it work? think along these lines for the answer....
my post from another thread....
The irony of it all is that if surf only took signals in the direction of the trend then they would most likely work even better....why?..because when a "true tradable" trend is in place and gets going....nothing..and I mean nothing **exaggerrating a bit**...can stop it....it is PREORDAINED....(there is something else which pushes trends that is likely related to physics and that has not yet been figured out by the academics )...so if you just blindly closed your eyes and took a trade then it would also work
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
Guys, there's this thing that works.
I know it works because I do it.
Of course, I can't tell you how to do it.
But it works.
Trust me.
Like I said, guys. Just trust me. I'm not going to tell you anything but it's possible. Yeah. And not even the smartest people in the world have figured it out yet.
But I have.
Study hard, grasshopper.