Quote from crazyAtrader:
Not every price action only trader is successful. Don't make the assumption that understanding price action in the now is an easy task; it's far from easy, in fact, it's incredibly hard and time consuming.
To understand price action you must first understand what makes the market technically turn in all the various market conditions so you can determine the surprising events when it's not turning when it should have turned and many other potential probabilities, before that stage is mastered any analysis is completely futile, you are just analyzing randomness. No sense in studying the action of price around "key" areas, when you don't even know what a key area is. You think you know though so you keep wasting your time, until you finally know.
Now, once you finally understand what makes the market technically turn, on average it takes a trader appproximately 3-5 years of watching price alone without the usage of distracting indicators, only then, are you ready to listen and learn to how to react to the different price action events around these key areas and from there you are now finally ready to determine direction beyond random probability.
Anyone can post a chart and do Monday morning quarterbacking and give a detailed explanation of what happened, many forms of technical analysis are great for explaining the past (this is why there are so many successful snake oil salesmen out there), however, it has very little predictive value for the future (and why there are so many failed traders taking such "courses') but sadly there's not a whole lot of people out there teaching what price action truly is because a large part of "getting it" is dependent on you and not a book, a teacher or a mentor; and of course, that and the fact that very few traders ever reach the point of "getting it", and even less probable to attempt to teach it.
Crazy A
Excellent post.
May I just add that not everyone is equally equipped to read the tape (as they used to call trading off price action) just as not everyone is equally equipped to trade based on fundamentals or technicals.
Blessed is the trader who sooner rather then later abandons approaches they are not equipped for.