Price Action - NQ III
- Thread starter lajax
- Start date
Sorry for the late answer I was a bit bussy during the weekend, anyway I take the Daily trend channel from here the weekly
I thought that might be the case. As I was reviewing your last set of charts, I couldn't figure out why 3670 was exerting so much influence, esp as the daily SL suggested R at 3680. Then I realized you were taking the current trend channel back with you to the past, and as any Trekkie can tell you, that's not allowed.
When backtesting, you have to start over beginning with whatever point in time you've chosen as a starting point. Then the trendlines and channels are drawn as they would have been in real time. Otherwise, they are of no use.
In this case:
The encircled area is what you're working on now. Blown up you have the following:
As you can see, the median crosses price's path at this point at 3670. This may not be the "cause" of the reversal, but it would have been worth considering during 4/2 and 4/3. 200pts is 200pts.
Remember that while the upper and lower limits are useful with regard to suggesting extremes, it is the median that is steering the course. All trades rotate around it. You must track the median accurately.
When backtesting, you have to start over beginning with whatever point in time you've chosen as a starting point. Then the trendlines and channels are drawn as they would have been in real time. Otherwise, they are of no use.
In this case:
The encircled area is what you're working on now. Blown up you have the following:
As you can see, the median crosses price's path at this point at 3670. This may not be the "cause" of the reversal, but it would have been worth considering during 4/2 and 4/3. 200pts is 200pts.
Remember that while the upper and lower limits are useful with regard to suggesting extremes, it is the median that is steering the course. All trades rotate around it. You must track the median accurately.
April 8th
Prep - Context
Here is the TC drawn with the new limits
Plan the trades.
Trades
Db one question, regarding to the use of the Stop Loss, do you trade with a fix amount of contracts? Context that make the risk variable depending of the distance until the Stop Loss (Right?) or do you put your position (# of contracts) variable in order to fix your risk?. I ask about it because sometimes the distance is considerable, for example today I took a trade with a distance of 5,75 and I did not feel to confortable with it. In any case I know that regarding to the risk tolerance it depends of each one, but I would like to know your opinion
Regards
Prep - Context
Here is the TC drawn with the new limits
Plan the trades.
Trades
Db one question, regarding to the use of the Stop Loss, do you trade with a fix amount of contracts? Context that make the risk variable depending of the distance until the Stop Loss (Right?) or do you put your position (# of contracts) variable in order to fix your risk?. I ask about it because sometimes the distance is considerable, for example today I took a trade with a distance of 5,75 and I did not feel to confortable with it. In any case I know that regarding to the risk tolerance it depends of each one, but I would like to know your opinion
Regards
If your primary objective at this stage is to determine the viability of a retracement strategy of your making, then don't confuse the objective with targets and stops and contracts and so on. Otherwise, if things don't work out at a satisfactory level, you may dump the whole thing when the strategy may be perfectly sound yet the tactics leave something to be desired. Determine first whether or not the retracement strategy, i.e., entries, meets your objectives.
You may, however, while you're testing retracements, gather data on how far price typically travels after you've entered your trade, what the recoil typically is, how long it takes for price to get moving. IF your RET entries are successful to whatever level you've chosen as acceptable, you will then arrive quicker at a set of hypotheses regarding targets and stops and whether those stops should be fixed or trailing or, if fixed, if and when they should be moved.
You may, however, while you're testing retracements, gather data on how far price typically travels after you've entered your trade, what the recoil typically is, how long it takes for price to get moving. IF your RET entries are successful to whatever level you've chosen as acceptable, you will then arrive quicker at a set of hypotheses regarding targets and stops and whether those stops should be fixed or trailing or, if fixed, if and when they should be moved.
Ok Db, so far I have gathered some information regarding to the MFE and MAE, I think these would help me in order to determine what I am looking for about this topic. In this order of ideas I will finish the 100 trades and publish the statistics, I hope they are similar to your results.
BTW: thanks for your response.
BTW: thanks for your response.
April 10th
Prep - Context
Plan the trades.
Trades
Making a review of the day, the best entry came after the BO of the hinge in the 5m chart (below the S); In this context I think that today is one of those days when is important to synchronize several intervals, for example after this entry (third trade) it could be managed with the 5m chart and the trade would be still open because the SL have not been broken yet. In any case I wanted to point this out because I think that sometimes I need to improve my synchronization with the context of the market.
Today results: +4pts
Prep - Context
Plan the trades.
Trades
Making a review of the day, the best entry came after the BO of the hinge in the 5m chart (below the S); In this context I think that today is one of those days when is important to synchronize several intervals, for example after this entry (third trade) it could be managed with the 5m chart and the trade would be still open because the SL have not been broken yet. In any case I wanted to point this out because I think that sometimes I need to improve my synchronization with the context of the market.
Today results: +4pts