If you're reading lines instead of price, then yes. But remember that the lines are an aid; they do not run the show. Price movement is in the market; the lines are in your head.
Search the posts I've made about the story. Here you have two efforts to move above 63. But not enough traders are interested. And nobody's interested above 68. So traders look to find trades lower. One can sit back and watch all of this unfold, or he can use the SLA to short the change-of-mind, which is where the short at 61 comes in.
If one were trading a 1m or sub-1m bar, then, technically, a long at your dot would be justified. But, again, there's the story. Traders have already rejected the upside. The swing point chosen to draw the SL is marginal at best. Plus price is well below the halfway level of this downmove. And it can't get past the median of the range. Therefore, there's no reason to exit the short. And if one is short, he can't go long. If one were quick, he would note that your long fails immediately, understand what that means, and trade the dog. But, more likely, he wouldn't, and he'd be out altogether. Also note the 8-minute mess that takes place between 51 and 45. If traders were eager to drive this down, this wouldn't exist. At the very least, this suggests indecision. It may also suggest preparation for a reversal, at least somewhat confirmed by the activity in the 0921 bar.
Remember that few traders will see your 1m bars other than scalpers, and scalpers aren't trading charts. The movers are going to be those who are interested in longer intervals, which is why movements off daily and hourly extremes are so aggressive and often so clean. The usefulness of smaller intervals is to view price movement, not necessarily to take trades. Those who use smaller intervals for trading are essentially scalping by means that are entirely inappropriate for scalping, hence the many stopouts, small profits, small losses, big commissions, and generally wasted time and effort.
Currently, the story revolves around 4440, yet few "elite traders" appear to understand this, as witnessed by all the trading in the wrong direction. Yes, AMT is a theory. But sound theory or not, shorting an uptrend and buying a downtrend demonstrates at the least a lack of understanding of the
law of supply and demand. Professional traders understand this. They've understood it for at least four hundred years. Which is why the competent win and the incompetent lose; the competent understand how an auction market works.
Look at this timeframe using a 5m bar interval:
View attachment 151813
There are only two trades here: the short would be stopped out for a small loss; the long would be scratched due to the "retracement" not being confirmed. So one would end up with pretty much nothing.
However, if one switches to the 1m at the BO failure
and trades those movements within the context of the 5m, he can tote up a respectable number of points, as shown in my previous post.
Note: I see that my previous post has received a half-dozen "likes" so far, even though I've made this point repeatedly. I've never advocated this over-abundance of lines. They are nothing more than a means of mapping the territory. But what fearful traders do is not so much map the territory as try to insulate themselves from failure. Thus the lines become not maps but electric perimeter fences and klaxon horns and motion-sensing floodlights and land mines and trip wires. And while they've insulated themselves in their little compounds, there's trading going on, and they're missing out on it.
Get rid of all the lines. All of them. And watch price. Judge the market by its own action.
