Price action leading up to the dump at 10AM

[failed_trad3r]

Can somebody please explain how I should have interpeted todays price action prior to the big dump?

I've been training my eye to see price action, and little indicators. All the price action up to 10 AM was bullish! I was visualizing a bottoming formation, especially after the first 15 min bar. I did see some selling pressure in the second 15 min bar, but how could that have predicted the big dump?

 

[owusu]

when a market moving economic data is coming out, disregard price action and stay on the sideline until the release and things settle down.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from owusu:

when a market moving economic data is coming out, disregard price action and stay on the sideline until the release and things settle down.

I knew that data was coming out.. but how could I have connected the small selling pressure and the big dump?

 

[spd]

I think the only people who know when the biiiiiiiiig moves down are coming are the ones making them happen. Dont gamble on news releases.

 

[adadadog]

One of the traders, who trades eur, posted on t2w and says he can trade news before its release 90% of winning by following trends and subtle moves just before the news release. The subtle moves are often in the direction of the big after news move.

Another theory from "Study of Tape Reading" is that the news or hint of it often leak out minutes before its formal release, so tape should reflect it.

I do notice, the subtle before news movement is often consistent with the big after news move. But I am too risk averse to trade it.

 

[cvds16]

most people I know that trade price action just get out at latest about 1 min before the news, it's just not worth the risk and most of the times it's a pure gamble. I know one person that can do what is described above by looking at tick charts to get the move, but that's not for mere mortals, he is probably the best trader I know by very very far.

 

[trader#21]

Quote from adadadog:

One of the traders, who trades eur, posted on t2w and says he can trade news before its release 90% of winning by following trends and subtle moves just before the news release. The subtle moves are often in the direction of the big after news move.

Such probabilities do not happen in stocks, and I highly doubt for EUR.

 

[trader#21]

Quote from cvds16:

I know one person that can do what is described above by looking at tick charts to get the move, but that's not for mere mortals, he is probably the best trader I know by very very far.

Not such a big deal if you ask me... its all about training yourself for lightning fast reflexes for tick data. But then, good trading was never easy.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from adadadog:

One of the traders, who trades eur, posted on t2w and says he can trade news before its release 90% of winning by following trends and subtle moves just before the news release. The subtle moves are often in the direction of the big after news move.

Another theory from "Study of Tape Reading" is that the news or hint of it often leak out minutes before its formal release, so tape should reflect it.

I do notice, the subtle before news movement is often consistent with the big after news move. But I am too risk averse to trade it.

I noticed that several months ago when I started sim trading futures. I referred to it as "market creep". There's a very subtle move in the direction of the post-news price action just in front of the news release. I play that in my sim account all the time, but would never take that kind of gamble live.

 

[adadadog]

Quote from trader#21:

Such probabilities do not happen in stocks, and I highly doubt for EUR.

I also need to add that he said stay with the trend even if you are wrong on news move, it will retrace back and continue the trend in a couple of days.

I also noticed often a few hours before news price bulge in opposite direction of the news move -- may indicate manipulation to shaking out others while loading up in better prices by insiders.