Price Action Journal V1.5

[amitman]

Quote from TraderKaizen:

1 trade this AM -4.25 pts. Shorted magic tick below bar closing below major support level 2375. Got stopped out. Mkt finally pushed down over lunchtime

This was actually a very bad trade as your entry was after a pretty long down move, you should have waited for a retracment or at least use a larger stop.
One of the things that made my trading much more successful was the disiplane to wait for a big retrecment before entring (and by big I mean that the distance to last low/high should be at least 60-70% of your first target so you can always pull out if you see the market doesn't break the S/R line), yes I do miss a good trade from time to time but my winning ratio has gone way up and I feel much more comfortable with my trading.

 

[toucan]

1 trade this am... NQ short 647 at 1929.75... still in the trade so far... but this is one of those slow down days on low trading volume where the big guys can run price up in a flash to take out all the shorts...

good luck on your trades

Toucan

 

[amitman]

Quote from johnpinochet:

I personally would analyze my method, and see what the perfect ratio of a given number of ticks in my favor is compared to a best case scenario and a worst case scenario.

The above is confusing so allow me to use an example from my bond trading journal. After a few years of experience I decided to data mine my own trading. I discovered that my entries were almost always good for 4 - 6 ticks in the ZB. The percentage was unbelieveable. My stumbling block was holding on for much more. Once I made that discovery my trading took off.

To apply this to a one lot trader, I would find out how many ticks you are usually good for, and make that your target. Once you build up your account, you can then exit the first at your "good for" number and let the other ride.

Totally agree, as I traded the ES I've written down all possible trade according to my system and saw that most of them make 2-2.25 points so I decided to set my target there (1.75-2 points) and since my stop is usually 1.75-2.5 that's makes a good enough R/R. After a while when I felt more comfortabe I started using 2 contracts and exit half at 2 poins move stop to B/E and then let the othe run.

 

[toucan]

out of my NQ trade

 

[mdl060374]

Only 1 trade so far.. After failing a "W" bottom, I looked to short the next "lower low" anticipating a possible sell off, since market didnt rally, and also was hovering on a bottom of the channel on the daily chart. (see attached)

It did sell off gradually, but it got to be close to the "lunchtime chop" so I got wary of it as time went on, thinking it would bounce off the channel..

So basically I played it safe..

 

[mdl060374]

the daily chart I mentioned..

resting on the bottom of the channel. couldnt break it this morning, so a possible bounce perhaps?

 

[mccullek]

Quote from amitman:

This was actually a very bad trade as your entry was after a pretty long down move, you should have waited for a retracment or at least use a larger stop.
One of the things that made my trading much more successful was the disiplane to wait for a big retrecment before entring (and by big I mean that the distance to last low/high should be at least 60-70% of your first target so you can always pull out if you see the market doesn't break the S/R line), yes I do miss a good trade from time to time but my winning ratio has gone way up and I feel much more comfortable with my trading.

I agree here. Not to pick on you, but this is what I used to try and do.... trade the break outs. I was unsuccessful more times than not I might add. If you trade the break outs, you have to use large stops and be prepared for draw downs as well. Plus if you catch the last swing of the day, then you will lose big time. If you get in the turn early, even if you catch the last swing, you should still have room to make a small profit or at least get out at BE if it turns on you. Trading break outs will get you sooner or later.

One other thought. The pattern for the past two days is for the pull back to take off downwards again, only to stall at support and get a small move at best through the support, then start over again. Even more reason not to trade a break out right now.

It takes a while to condition yourself to go against the move when buying or selling pull backs. You need a good entry technique as well, but once you get the hang of it, your trading will improve considerably.

 

[mccullek]

Quote from mccullek:

More of the same today. No real break out yet, just a steady grind down around the LOD. I did get short on the pull back around 9:44 AM, and it was the best pull back of the day with the exception of the opening drop. I covered when it turned, but haven't found another decent entry point, so only one small trade today for a small profit.

I'm looking for one of those great trading days where I can get long/short and stay that way for a while! A small profit is better than a loss any day though.

I took another short at around 1:20 today and added another 12 ticks to my profit for the day. Again, I pulled out when it started to turn up. That turned out to be a good move this time though, because it pulled back hard, and the next swing down only got an extra tick or two, so I would have had to ride a drawn down to only add about 2 more ticks, and that's if I got out at the bottom. For now, it appears that I actually got out within a couple of ticks of the low for the day, as we are rallying now.

Exiting the pullbacks can work both ways I guess, so maybe I should continue to do so unless we get the very strong trends. Anyway, although not a large one, another winning day with respectable profits.

 

[traderTX]

Here's my chart from today...still trading the ER2 as I seem to be "feeling" it better than the ES.

Only took shorts as the retracement moves up never could take out any meaningful resistance.

Total of 4 trades for 3.7pts

One thing I have got to stop doing is trading right before lunch...I never have good trades...just haven't been able to NOT pull the trigger....still learning I guess!

 

[Max22]

I think this statement is very important in trading with the trend. The key is finding that resistance spot in a down trend during the retracement that you think will hold price, and then watching for an entry technique to get you in. some people use fib numbers for the spot , others use places on the chart where some consolidtation or prev highs were.
For me the challenge has been to find an entry technique that worked more conistently than not, once price has moved up to the "shortable" area spot.
I'm curious as to what others are using and if they are incorporating volume into it.

Max

Quote from mccullek:

I agree here. Not to pick on you, but this is what I used to try and do.... trade the break outs. I was unsuccessful more times than not I might add. If you trade the break outs, you have to use large stops and be prepared for draw downs as well. Plus if you catch the last swing of the day, then you will lose big time. If you get in the turn early, even if you catch the last swing, you should still have room to make a small profit or at least get out at BE if it turns on you. Trading break outs will get you sooner or later.

One other thought. The pattern for the past two days is for the pull back to take off downwards again, only to stall at support and get a small move at best through the support, then start over again. Even more reason not to trade a break out right now.

It takes a while to condition yourself to go against the move when buying or selling pull backs. You need a good entry technique as well, but once you get the hang of it, your trading will improve considerably.