Prepare for the "The Kick The Can Down The Road Crash of 2011"

C

Cdntrader

Prepare for the "The Kick The Can Down The Road Crash of 2011"

More useless speeches from Ben and Trichet and Lagard.

Seems the politicans are happy to keep that can running down the road despite the market telegraphing a coming crash.

I guess they need a crash to get the political cover to come up with unpopular solutions.

Maybe this time we will find a "real " bottom.



:cool:
 
Not saying a crash isn't coming but what do you base your prediction on? Useless speeches generally doesn't preclude a crash but considering the fragile nature of the market you may very well be right. October is right around the corner.
 
Quote from the1:

Not saying a crash isn't coming but what do you base your prediction on? .
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European market action. Gov't/bank CDS spreads blow out, Euro banks in free fall. Gold and such on fire. Currencies strangely quiet(calm before the storm?).

Markets are telegraphing acute stress.

Check out DB STD RBS BCS etc.

I've seen this movie before.
 
Quote from Cdntrader:

European market action. Gov't/bank CDS spreads blow out, Euro banks in free fall. Gold and such on fire. Currencies strangely quiet(calm before the storm?).

Markets are telegraphing acute stress.

Check out DB STD RBS BCS etc.

I've seen this movie before.
More...

Yeah it's hard. Friday we had a sharp sell-off followed by a big rally. My take is you have different participants.

Bots, program trades, and position traders .

The bots and programs SOLD but the position traders came in and bought the crap out of the market. Who? Who knows and cares but the tracks show BUYING. Are we going to crash again? Yeah an external shock can occur. The markets are mean reverting in the short term but price shocks including order imbalances from position traders can set in motion PERMANENT price changes. Just food for thought.
 
Quote from Lojanica:

Yeah it's hard. Friday we had a sharp sell-off followed by a big rally. My take is you have different participants.

Bots, program trades, and position traders .

The bots and programs SOLD but the position traders came in and bought the crap out of the market. Who? Who knows and cares but the tracks show BUYING. Are we going to crash again? Yeah an external shock can occur. The markets are mean reverting in the short term but price shocks including order imbalances from position traders can set in motion PERMANENT price changes. Just food for thought.
More...

The point is that equities are basically the "dumb money" in the food chain. In recent years, most of the leading indicators that cdntrader outlined above were showing stress weeks/months before stocks figured out "this shit is serious".
 
Quote from Cdntrader:

Prepare for the "The Kick The Can Down The Road Crash of 2011"

More useless speeches from Ben and Trichet and Lagard.

Seems the politicans are happy to keep that can running down the road despite the market telegraphing a coming crash.

I guess they need a crash to get the political cover to come up with unpopular solutions.

Maybe this time we will find a "real " bottom.



:cool:
More...

1. You clearly never took a class in French. (Check the spelling of the woman's name).

2. You also seem to be one of the guys who short after seeing the trend in hindsight, and now that it got against you, you run around walking about market falling etc.

Luckily for you that the market did not really touch the bottom, so it may go down to touch it, but you probably would have taken you lost by then. :D
 
Quote from Lojanica:

Yeah it's hard. Friday we had a sharp sell-off followed by a big rally. My take is you have different participants.

Bots, program trades, and position traders .

The bots and programs SOLD but the position traders came in and bought the crap out of the market. Who? Who knows and cares but the tracks show BUYING. Are we going to crash again? Yeah an external shock can occur. The markets are mean reverting in the short term but price shocks including order imbalances from position traders can set in motion PERMANENT price changes. Just food for thought.
More...

Good post!
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

1. You clearly never took a class in French. (Check the spelling of the woman's name).

2. You also seem to be one of the guys who short after seeing the trend in hindsight, and now that it got against you, you run around walking about market falling etc.

Luckily for you that the market did not really touch the bottom, so it may go down to touch it, but you probably would have taken you lost by then. :D
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oh sweet! a spelling war!


"but you probably would have taken you lost by then."?...hmm

perhaps you should read about her speech:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-recovery-in-dangerous-phase-imfs-lagarde-2011-08-27

Global recovery in dangerous phase: IMF’s Lagarde

Lagarde said that Europe must come to the aid of its struggling banking sector and should consider using its European Financial Stability Facility to inject money into capital-starved banks.
 
Quote from denner:

The point is that equities are basically the "dumb money" in the food chain. In recent years, most of the leading indicators that cdntrader outlined above were showing stress weeks/months before stocks figured out "this shit is serious". No argument. I've been short since 1st trading day of May. Then flat. Now getting long. Vix hit 50. Market is mean reverting. Is the world ending maybe but the street knew that a HUGE storm was gonna hit NY and it rallied. Are we gonna go down Sunday when the markets open, almost certainly but if I was gonna bet and I am I have money at stake--I'd say by year end we are higher than we are now. The markets are pricing in negative growth and I don't think that happens now. There was blood in the streets. Now are equities gonna be a buy and hold until 2050. Doubt that it's a traders market. Consider that gold margins are gonna get squeezed until the speculators capitulate. We might hit $2000 or we might have already topped. Where's that money gonna go? Treasuries are 2% and equities are down 20-25%. You do the math.
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Quote from Cdntrader:

oh sweet! a spelling war!


"but you probably would have taken you lost by then."?...hmm

perhaps you should read about her speech:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-recovery-in-dangerous-phase-imfs-lagarde-2011-08-27

Lagarde said that Europe must come to the aid of its struggling banking sector and should consider using its European Financial Stability Facility to inject money into capital-starved banks.
More...


Thanks Cdntrader for the info. You seem to be a cool/good guy. :)

I hate proof reading what I write, and I have no reward if I were to do it---I bet I am not alone.
 
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