Quote from TskTsk:
I believe most research on this has concluded that selling options indeed is profitable overall, but with occasionally large losses. So you make money over several small trades but can lose it all in one trade. Overally though, it should be profitable but with very large drawdowns. Consider that options are seen as insurance to most, it's a small price to pay to sleep better at night and reduce portfolio volatility. As a result cash flows from buyers to sellers. Like in all forms of insurance, the insurance companies and lotto companies make the profit, not the buyers. Options are no different.
As for the risk of short vol it has been debated several times on here. The biggest vol blowout in history was long vol. Just ask all the buyers what happned to them in 2000, or look at 2008 where many fundamentally long vol, even some of them hedged, lead to total annihilation.
Interesting point indeed!
http://www.investopedia.com/university/optionvolatility/volatility7.asp
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As is clear in Figure 17, ...
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Trading this information is difficult because the direction of the price move is not known. While it is possible to try to see what insiders are doing and to mimic their behavior, this is not always easy and may lead to erroneous results. Buying out-of-the-money options is a poor strategy even if you know which way the stock is headed. This is because the options are trading at extreme price levels, as indicated by the sky-high IV. When the move occurs, assuming you bought the right options, the collapse in IV will often erase most of he gains. Selling strategies, meanwhile, may pose a problem because the price moves can be so big that you may find that the risk is not worth the reward. While there are other ways to trade these high IV levels, the topic is outside the scope of this tutorial. The important point is to know how IV can be used to scan for stocks that ready to make explosive moves and what this means in terms of option pricing.
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