Well, it's not possible to recover without getting back to neutral on job losses + additional gains. That's 10 million. Not gonna happen. Sure, *the employed* are buying 95% of what they used to buy. And the unemployed are nowhere near that living standard, and won't ever see it again. That's not recovery, my friend.
Imo, what we're seeing now are just the birth pains of a much grander, more bankrupt America to come. It's not possible to maintain living standards with sustained job losses. Obamacare promises more to the unproductive, by taking from a shrinking pool of productive. When tax hikes and healthcare really kick-in, well, it should make for some good employment numbers....
The rest of the situation is ridiculous. The market-economy would have crashed if not for the endless (and unsustainable) Gov intervention. To know where true value is without Bernacke holding everyone above water, is anyones guess. Certainly not DJIA ~11IK. Earnings may look good - for multinationals. How are US issues doing? To me, that's a more accurate barometer for US activity as most of our jobs got transferred overseas. So "US" stocks with a heavy asian presence are posting great earnings. Not that it has much relevance since China does all the selling in that equation.
If the economy were to crash and flush, yes, I think we'd get a semblance of recovery. However, this is the new normal. Those 9 million jobs won't be coming back. And that's not total. Its ongoing. Two of our biggest domestic industries - manufacturing and IT/engineering - are still being outsourced. Thanks in part to Congressional willingness to subsidize and reward the offshoring of American jobs. 1 job in automotive is worth 3-5 jobs in "food service" or some other bullshit "industry" ("financial services") cooked up at the BLS.
Anyway, yes, I agree with your short-term assessment. Right now, it's not that bad. However, it will get rapidly worse. With the debt, employment and handout problem exponentially growing, everyday.