PreEarnings Trade NTRI Long

[HolyGrail]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

More memories of the Golden Age:

<img src=http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=amzn&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=41519&style=320&time=13&freq=2&nosettings=1&rand=5994&mocktick=1&rand=6286>

<img src=http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=yhoo&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=16665&style=320&time=13&freq=2&nosettings=1&rand=5325&mocktick=1&rand=1301>

<img src=http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=qcom&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=8267&style=320&time=13&freq=2&nosettings=1&rand=5025&mocktick=1&rand=9630>

Come to think of it, you don't even need to go back to the Golden Age to find such examples:

<img src=http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=tasr&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=661485&style=320&time=13&freq=2&nosettings=1&rand=652&mocktick=1&rand=1349>

Your cmgi example is correct. None of these stocks have risen 2000% in 18 months.

 

[Rearden Metal]

Quote from HolyGrail:

Your cmgi example is correct. None of these stocks have risen 2000% in 18 months.

Check your premises.

 

[HolyGrail]

I have. Tell me what 18 month period you are looking at because I sure can't find it.

 

[Rearden Metal]

Quote from HolyGrail:

I have. Tell me what 18 month period you are looking at because I sure can't find it.

QCOM traded at $52.25 on Jan. 4th, 1999.
It split 2:1 on May 11, 1999
It split again, 4:1 on Dec 31, 1999
It traded up to $200 on Jan 3rd, 2000.

That's a gain of over 3000%, in 12 months.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=QCOM&a=00&b=1&c=1999&d=00&e=26&f=2000&g=d

You should have checked your premises before wasting my time.

 

[HolyGrail]

You wasted my time by posting three other stocks that did not rise 2000%

Qcom's rise was 2491.04 percent not 3000.

 

[Rearden Metal]

Quote from HolyGrail:

You wasted my time by posting three other stocks that did not rise 2000%

Qcom's rise was 2491.04 percent not 3000.

<i>HolyGrail has been added to your ignore list.</i>

 

[HolyGrail]

Oh the tears coming out of my eyes right now. Please, anything but ignore. What will I do? Where will I go?

 

[Rearden Metal]

Just to put one last nail into this idiot/troll/idiotic troll:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AMZN&a=04&b=1&c=1997&d=00&e=1&f=2000&g=d&z=66&y=198

AMZN traded at $18.12 on July 1, 1997
AMZN split 2:1 on June 2, 1998
AMZN traded at $361.88 on December 28, 1998

<b>A gain of 3,994% in under 18 months.</b>

I won't bother doing the rest.

 

[HolyGrail]

I found a more recent example and posted it right after my first post about the 2000%. The point is it is rare. The point is they later fall. The point is the stock was priced to perfection, and it may not be a good idea to buy a stock up 2087% and gapping down after earnings. I guess it was more important for you to find stocks than to get the point.

 

[MorganSys]

Quote from HolyGrail:

I found a more recent example and posted it right after my first post about the 2000%. The point is it is rare. The point is they later fall. The point is the stock was priced to perfection, and it may not be a good idea to buy a stock up 2087% and gapping down after earnings.

Although you have identified a real inefficiency (investors do tend to have excessive confidence in he extension of past fundamental trends), I wouldn't consider good past results by themselves to be a sufficient condition for a short position of meaningful size.

It's also important to note that stocks - even when very overvalued - can continue to rise dramatically. XLA for example.