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Predictions keep going higher and higher!!!!!!!!!
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
Guaranteed Gains for 2010 no matter what according to this fine statistic right here.....
Also working in the bulls' favor is the fact that stocks have never fallen in the second year of a bull market going as far back as 1949, notes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P Equity Research. The average gain in year two of a bull is 15%, he says.
More bulls running wild.....
2010 AT A GLANCE
Strategists' S&P 500 targets for 2010:
Oppenheimer Asset Mgt
1300
16.7%
Bank of America's Merrill Lynch
1275
14.4%
Standard & Poor's
1215
9.1%
LPL Financial
1200
7.7%
RBC Capital Markets
1200
7.7%
Citigroup
1150
3.2%
Barclays Capital
1120
0.5%
Source: USA TODAY research
The key takeaway from an analysis of more than a half-dozen 2010 outlook reports is that the new year could mark the second leg of the bull market recovery.
Projected gains for the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index range from as much as 16.7% to as little as 0.5% from Monday's close.
The most optimistic projection comes from Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer. Belski, who has a 2010 year-end price target of 1300 for the S&P 500, says the widespread doubts about the continuation of the big rally off of the March bear market lows are misplaced.
"The widespread skepticism about the U.S. stock market and economy is based more on the unprecedented circumstances of (the) 2007-2009 (financial crisis) than on the outlook, which is poised to improve significantly," Belski said in his 2010 market outlook.
While Belski's call of double-digit gains pales compared with the 60%-plus gains since March 9, the direction remains up. He expects corporate earnings to grow 25% next year, thanks to recovering consumers and an economy posting better-than-expected growth.
The most cautious projection comes from Barry Knapp of Barclays Capital. Knapp, a U.S. portfolio strategist, is calling for a roughly 10% correction in the first half of 2010 and a subsequent recovery on the S&P 500 to 1120, or a 0.5% gain by year's end.
Knapp's less-robust thesis is based largely on his belief that the Federal Reserve will begin to reverse its easy â and cheap â monetary policy, a move that could act as a headwind for what has been a liquidity-driven stock rally.
"We think 2010 will follow a pattern quite similar to 2004, when stocks spent the first half of the year anticipating the end of the easiest monetary policy in decades," he wrote in his report, titled "2010 Outlook: The Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away."
By the time the Fed raises short-term interest rates, which are now at 0% to 0.25%, the market correction will largely be complete, Knapp predicts.
Low interest rates, of course, helped stimulate the moribund economy in 2009 by keeping mortgage rates and other borrowing costs low, as well as allowing banks to borrow money cheaply and lend it out or invest it at higher rates.
Also working in the bulls' favor is the fact that stocks have never fallen in the second year of a bull market going as far back as 1949, notes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P Equity Research. The average gain in year two of a bull is 15%, he says.
Also working in the bulls' favor is the fact that stocks have never fallen in the second year of a bull market going as far back as 1949, notes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P Equity Research. The average gain in year two of a bull is 15%, he says.
More bulls running wild.....
2010 AT A GLANCE
Strategists' S&P 500 targets for 2010:
Oppenheimer Asset Mgt
1300
16.7%
Bank of America's Merrill Lynch
1275
14.4%
Standard & Poor's
1215
9.1%
LPL Financial
1200
7.7%
RBC Capital Markets
1200
7.7%
Citigroup
1150
3.2%
Barclays Capital
1120
0.5%
Source: USA TODAY research
The key takeaway from an analysis of more than a half-dozen 2010 outlook reports is that the new year could mark the second leg of the bull market recovery.
Projected gains for the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index range from as much as 16.7% to as little as 0.5% from Monday's close.
The most optimistic projection comes from Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer. Belski, who has a 2010 year-end price target of 1300 for the S&P 500, says the widespread doubts about the continuation of the big rally off of the March bear market lows are misplaced.
"The widespread skepticism about the U.S. stock market and economy is based more on the unprecedented circumstances of (the) 2007-2009 (financial crisis) than on the outlook, which is poised to improve significantly," Belski said in his 2010 market outlook.
While Belski's call of double-digit gains pales compared with the 60%-plus gains since March 9, the direction remains up. He expects corporate earnings to grow 25% next year, thanks to recovering consumers and an economy posting better-than-expected growth.
The most cautious projection comes from Barry Knapp of Barclays Capital. Knapp, a U.S. portfolio strategist, is calling for a roughly 10% correction in the first half of 2010 and a subsequent recovery on the S&P 500 to 1120, or a 0.5% gain by year's end.
Knapp's less-robust thesis is based largely on his belief that the Federal Reserve will begin to reverse its easy â and cheap â monetary policy, a move that could act as a headwind for what has been a liquidity-driven stock rally.
"We think 2010 will follow a pattern quite similar to 2004, when stocks spent the first half of the year anticipating the end of the easiest monetary policy in decades," he wrote in his report, titled "2010 Outlook: The Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away."
By the time the Fed raises short-term interest rates, which are now at 0% to 0.25%, the market correction will largely be complete, Knapp predicts.
Low interest rates, of course, helped stimulate the moribund economy in 2009 by keeping mortgage rates and other borrowing costs low, as well as allowing banks to borrow money cheaply and lend it out or invest it at higher rates.
Also working in the bulls' favor is the fact that stocks have never fallen in the second year of a bull market going as far back as 1949, notes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P Equity Research. The average gain in year two of a bull is 15%, he says.
I must admit cnbc does one hell of job finding these strategists on a day to day basis to announce these bullish opinions that outweigh bearish ones 10 to 1. Good job cnbc, keep up the good work, at this rate, dow 15,000 by end of 2010 early 2011.
Market to Rise 10% in First Half of 2010: Strategist
Published: Monday, 28 Dec 2009 | 11:44 AM ET
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By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate
Markets rose on Monday, with retailers ringing up gains after a report showed the holiday-shopping season was better than expected. Roy Williams, CEO of Prestige Wealth Management and Doug MacKay, president and CIO of Broadleaf Partners shared their market outlook for next year and where investors should put their money in 2010.
âThe markets in the first half of the year will be very positive,â Williams told CNBC. âYou have consumers starting to spend again, corporations that have great balance sheets outside of the financials and youâll see capital spending there.â
Although there may be volatility in the markets, Williams said he expects the markets to head higher in the first half of the year by 10 percent.
MacKay said the deeper the recession, the bigger the market rebound and added that he is bullish.
âIt makes sense to have the cyclical trade on and not focusing on defensives like staples and health care,â he said. âI would be moving past the early cyclical plays like the consumer discretionary space and more toward later cyclical plays such as energy, industrials, and materialsâthe reflation trade."
"If we do see the economy improving and employment improving and consumer improving, where you want to be is the later stage cyclicals,â he added.
Market to Rise 10% in First Half of 2010: Strategist
Published: Monday, 28 Dec 2009 | 11:44 AM ET
Text Size
By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate
Markets rose on Monday, with retailers ringing up gains after a report showed the holiday-shopping season was better than expected. Roy Williams, CEO of Prestige Wealth Management and Doug MacKay, president and CIO of Broadleaf Partners shared their market outlook for next year and where investors should put their money in 2010.
âThe markets in the first half of the year will be very positive,â Williams told CNBC. âYou have consumers starting to spend again, corporations that have great balance sheets outside of the financials and youâll see capital spending there.â
Although there may be volatility in the markets, Williams said he expects the markets to head higher in the first half of the year by 10 percent.
MacKay said the deeper the recession, the bigger the market rebound and added that he is bullish.
âIt makes sense to have the cyclical trade on and not focusing on defensives like staples and health care,â he said. âI would be moving past the early cyclical plays like the consumer discretionary space and more toward later cyclical plays such as energy, industrials, and materialsâthe reflation trade."
"If we do see the economy improving and employment improving and consumer improving, where you want to be is the later stage cyclicals,â he added.
As investors return from the holiday break and look back on one of the best years for US stocks since 2003, many will likely question whether there is any momentum left in the markets.
One market expert told CNBC that the positive returns could hold for at least the first quarter of 2010, but after that stocks would likely be stuck in a tight trading range.
"We think that the Dow will continue to climb. I'm sure that the Dow will probably go close to 12,000 (points) within the first 3-4 months of this year⦠Then I'm expecting sideways movement and I think you'll probably be range trading for the rest of the year," Peter McGuire, managing director of CWA Global Markets, told CNBC.
One market expert told CNBC that the positive returns could hold for at least the first quarter of 2010, but after that stocks would likely be stuck in a tight trading range.
"We think that the Dow will continue to climb. I'm sure that the Dow will probably go close to 12,000 (points) within the first 3-4 months of this year⦠Then I'm expecting sideways movement and I think you'll probably be range trading for the rest of the year," Peter McGuire, managing director of CWA Global Markets, told CNBC.
Expect Strong Market Through January: S&P's Stovall
Published: Tuesday, 5 Jan 2010 | 12:53 PM ET
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By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate
Corporate debt and equities both saw strong performances in 2009, so what should investors expect for 2010? Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poorâs, shared his view.
âHistorically, we can expect a good year, but not a great year,â Stovall told CNBC. âThe month of January is likely to be fairly strong.â
Stovall said the first January following a bear market since 1932 historically rises about 3.5 percent.
âWe think the S&P will rise to about 1,215 by the end of December this year,â he said. âItâs going to be a slow but a steady upward grindâweâll see 2 percent for all of 2010 in terms of GDP growth, ending the year at about 3.4 percent quarterly growth.â
Published: Tuesday, 5 Jan 2010 | 12:53 PM ET
Text Size
By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate
Corporate debt and equities both saw strong performances in 2009, so what should investors expect for 2010? Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poorâs, shared his view.
âHistorically, we can expect a good year, but not a great year,â Stovall told CNBC. âThe month of January is likely to be fairly strong.â
Stovall said the first January following a bear market since 1932 historically rises about 3.5 percent.
âWe think the S&P will rise to about 1,215 by the end of December this year,â he said. âItâs going to be a slow but a steady upward grindâweâll see 2 percent for all of 2010 in terms of GDP growth, ending the year at about 3.4 percent quarterly growth.â
While US stock gains could replicate 2009's gain of 23 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500, emerging markets and some developed countries could eclipse even those lofty totals, according to Prudential's estimates.
John Praveen, managing director and chief investment strategist, was the most bullish of the firm's analysts.
"We still think that emerging markets and Europe will continue to outperform the US and Japan," he said. "The US itself should continue to enjoy gains," which he said should approach 20 percent.
Praveen called for a "Nike" recovery, referring to the athletic shoemaker's trademark "swoosh" symbolmeaning he sees slow, steady growth for the world economy.
"Global markets we believe will continue to enjoy the macro sweet spot of gradual, steady, sustained GDP growth," he said. He predicted China will grow at more than 10 percent, India at 8 percent and Brazil and Russia at 5 percent, while the world will see a total GDP growth of about 6 percent.
For global stocks, Praveen recommends industrials, materials, technology and financials.
John Praveen, managing director and chief investment strategist, was the most bullish of the firm's analysts.
"We still think that emerging markets and Europe will continue to outperform the US and Japan," he said. "The US itself should continue to enjoy gains," which he said should approach 20 percent.
Praveen called for a "Nike" recovery, referring to the athletic shoemaker's trademark "swoosh" symbolmeaning he sees slow, steady growth for the world economy.
"Global markets we believe will continue to enjoy the macro sweet spot of gradual, steady, sustained GDP growth," he said. He predicted China will grow at more than 10 percent, India at 8 percent and Brazil and Russia at 5 percent, while the world will see a total GDP growth of about 6 percent.
For global stocks, Praveen recommends industrials, materials, technology and financials.
the answer to that is NEVER. i haven't't seen one main line analyst
predict a down year. put to call the last 2 days is some of the lwoest i've seen in possibly years. throw in investors intelligence at record low bears and a market up 75% in 10 months and all you need is one shock out of left field and it will be a site to see as theres nothing under the market to slow the drop down. thats what happens when you wipe every bear who ever lived to the street.again the above means nothing unless we can start rolling to the downside. as they say it means nothing till it means something. at that pt people will be coming out of the woodwork saying they saw this collapse coming. i guess what shocks me the most is why so few moral analsyts are not saying this is getting insane please be careful. especially after what happened in 2008.
predict a down year. put to call the last 2 days is some of the lwoest i've seen in possibly years. throw in investors intelligence at record low bears and a market up 75% in 10 months and all you need is one shock out of left field and it will be a site to see as theres nothing under the market to slow the drop down. thats what happens when you wipe every bear who ever lived to the street.again the above means nothing unless we can start rolling to the downside. as they say it means nothing till it means something. at that pt people will be coming out of the woodwork saying they saw this collapse coming. i guess what shocks me the most is why so few moral analsyts are not saying this is getting insane please be careful. especially after what happened in 2008.
Why do i feel like something like this is about to happen.
NOTE: pic is photoshopped, put your shirt back on, lol.
http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/8141/wtflm.png
NOTE: pic is photoshopped, put your shirt back on, lol.
http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/8141/wtflm.png
Say 10% correction is "POSSIBLE" but goes on to say that it will be a positive year for stocks and that s$p 1250 is in the cards. Risk free trading environment.
ob Doll: 2010 Predictions
Published: Wednesday, 6 Jan 2010 | 10:44 AM ET
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By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive Editor
Blackrock Vice Chairman Bob Doll says 2010 will be positive for stocks but there could be bumps along the way.
Asked by CNBC if a 10 percent correction is possible, he said, "Yes I'd be surprised if we didn't see a 10."
Doll said the market could be due for a correction steeper than the shallow selloffs seen since the market's rally began in March.
He also said it may be that there are some bumps in the first half of the year in contrast to the popular expectation that the market sees smooth sailing early in the year but struggles later in the year. "It may be that it's more even," he said.
Blackrock's Bob Doll predictions for 2010:
* S&P 500 probable level of 1250
* Sees emerging markets outperform developed markets
* Sees U.S. outperforming other developed markets
* Sees possible earnings growth of 20% Plus
* U.S. economy grows at an above trend 3%
* Job growth turns positive early in the year but unemployment remains high
* Sees inflation as a non-issue
* Expects rates to rise at all points on Treasury curve including Fed funds
* Stocks outperform cash and treasuries
* Likes health care, tech and telecom ââ¬â Underweights financials utilities and materials
* Merger activity picks up due to strong cash flow and slow growth
* GOP makes gains in House and Senate but Democrats continue to control Congress
Doll made the comment after the widely watched investment strategist briefed press on his 2010 forecast. He will be a guest today on CNBC's The Call at 11:30am/ET.
ob Doll: 2010 Predictions
Published: Wednesday, 6 Jan 2010 | 10:44 AM ET
Text Size
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive Editor
Blackrock Vice Chairman Bob Doll says 2010 will be positive for stocks but there could be bumps along the way.
Asked by CNBC if a 10 percent correction is possible, he said, "Yes I'd be surprised if we didn't see a 10."
Doll said the market could be due for a correction steeper than the shallow selloffs seen since the market's rally began in March.
He also said it may be that there are some bumps in the first half of the year in contrast to the popular expectation that the market sees smooth sailing early in the year but struggles later in the year. "It may be that it's more even," he said.
Blackrock's Bob Doll predictions for 2010:
* S&P 500 probable level of 1250
* Sees emerging markets outperform developed markets
* Sees U.S. outperforming other developed markets
* Sees possible earnings growth of 20% Plus
* U.S. economy grows at an above trend 3%
* Job growth turns positive early in the year but unemployment remains high
* Sees inflation as a non-issue
* Expects rates to rise at all points on Treasury curve including Fed funds
* Stocks outperform cash and treasuries
* Likes health care, tech and telecom ââ¬â Underweights financials utilities and materials
* Merger activity picks up due to strong cash flow and slow growth
* GOP makes gains in House and Senate but Democrats continue to control Congress
Doll made the comment after the widely watched investment strategist briefed press on his 2010 forecast. He will be a guest today on CNBC's The Call at 11:30am/ET.