Predictions for 2012 (evaluating them)

Pekelo

Pekelo

Before anyone will get confused, this thread is for the evaluation of predictions made for this year and not for 2013. There will be a similar thread where you can shine up your crystal ball and make your prediction.
If you made a prediction about a year ago, don't hesitate to revisit it and you can post it here for everyone to see. Assuming you guessed correctly of course.

Before I criticize anyone else, it is nice to see how I did, so let's start with myself. I did have a pretty good crystal ball this year and almost all of my calls were right on the money. So let's see:

Quote from Pekelo posted on Jan 11th:

Since I like to be a good game, I will include here a few predictions on my own.

1. Slightly bullish on the market. The dollar strengthening will put a break on a big rally, so let's say we close only 3-4% up.
2. NFLX will go below $50. How we get there will be an interesting ride, but eventually we will, except a takeover, but I can't predict takeovers. Currently just below $95.
3. GRPN will lose half of its value and go below $10. Currently it is just below $19.
More...

Evaluation:

1. I was a bit conservative on the market. Although I got the direction right, the market is up 12% right now. This was a rather easy one, since almost every election year is bullish. I was expecting more of a sell off after the election...

2. NFLX went up first from 95 but then as a good little boy tanked and bottomed around $53. I posted then:

Quote from Pekelo posted on Aug 2nd:

NFLX is at 53.6, let's close it here, because it might bounce back,
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3. Of course GRPN went down like the Titanic and overshot my target of $10. Still an excellent call, there was no heat on this one...

So I give 2.5 points out of 3 to myself, but wait, there is more! Posted one day before the election:

Quote from Pekelo posted on Nov 5th:

Since I like to predict:

1. Obama wins easily by the EC.
2. Market drops 3-4 % in the next 3 days...
More...

1. Of course the Electoral College win was a landslide. (don't bitch about it, it is not in Politics)
2. 3 days after the election on Friday, the market bounced back from -4.2%.

So 2 more excellent predictions bring up my average to 4.5 out of 5. I got my ball at a Thrift Store, but I shined it really well... :)

How well did you do in 2012???
 
Since I promised Surf that I would revisit his predictions, here they are:

Quote from Pekelo:

I will summarize here Surf's predictions for this year, and we will get back to them in 11.5 months or so:

1. Bullish on the market. No % gain expressed though.
2. Bearish on Euro. It should reach parity with the dollar in 3 years or less, EUR/USD could reach 1.11 in 2012.
3. Swiss franc is projected to devalue at least 11% against the euro.
4. Japanese yen to collapse at least 23% against the U.S. dollar.
5. The bearishness extends to metals. Gold is over, finished, trashed. Gold $1300.00 per oz is in the cards for 2012
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Evaluation:

1. Correct, got the direction right, a pity he didn't put a number on it.
2. Bad (or so-so at most). Although midyear the Euro did go down to 1.2, by mid-Sept it was back where it was in January and now it is slightly higher.
3. Not good. Because of the Swiss banks' peg, there was very little movement between the Franc and the Euro. At most it was 2%...
4. Good. The yen weakened 10% against the dollar this year, although didn't collapse.
5. Very bad call. Gold took off in 2012, came back to the baseline, then took off again. Never was really in the red.

Overall, I would give it 2.5 out of 5. (2 good, 2 bad 1 so-so) That is a huge improvement for Surf, because the year before he went 0 out of 3. So congrats!!!
 
Quote from nonlinear5:

I predicted that if I did the right thing, it would pay off. It did: I am up about 50% this year.
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Congrats, although we can only accept posted predictions. :)

(not to mention, this thread isn't about P/L, there is another thread for that)
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Before anyone will get confused, this thread is for the evaluation of predictions made for this year and not for 2013. There will be a similar thread where you can shine up your crystal ball and make your prediction.
If you made a prediction about a year ago, don't hesitate to revisit it and you can post it here for everyone to see. Assuming you guessed correctly of course.

Before I criticize anyone else, it is nice to see how I did, so let's start with myself. I did have a pretty good crystal ball this year and almost all of my calls were right on the money. So let's see:



Evaluation:

1. I was a bit conservative on the market. Although I got the direction right, the market is up 12% right now. This was a rather easy one, since almost every election year is bullish. I was expecting more of a sell off after the election...

2. NFLX went up first from 95 but then as a good little boy tanked and bottomed around $53. I posted then:



3. Of course GRPN went down like the Titanic and overshot my target of $10. Still an excellent call, there was no heat on this one...

So I give 2.5 points out of 3 to myself, but wait, there is more! Posted one day before the election:



1. Of course the Electoral College win was a landslide. (don't bitch about it, it is not in Politics)
2. 3 days after the election on Friday, the market bounced back from -4.2%.

So 2 more excellent predictions bring up my average to 4.5 out of 5. I got my ball at a Thrift Store, but I shined it really well... :)

How well did you do in 2012???
More...

Why pray tell is a documented failed paper trader
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113413&perpage=30&pagenumber=2
admitted pizza delivery guy
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3180779&highlight=pizza#post3180779
who moonlights playing the ukelele in cheap hotel bars
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3149500&highlight=ukulele#post3149500
even posting this nonsense in the trading forum?
 
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