Bernie was trigger for March selloff? I guess the state shutdowns and massive unemployment numbers had nothing to do with it. Silly me.
Prediction for A 20% PLUNGE if no more stimulus.
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
Bernie was trigger for March selloff? I guess the state shutdowns and massive unemployment numbers had nothing to do with it. Silly me.
March lows?!!
I don’t see that happening with the Fed buying everything in sight.
Once they went to junk bonds that was the signal there is zero limit to what they will do to prop up this house of cards and everyone knows it.
Zero fear. Buy every dip or get left behind the next decade long Fed bubble
Entirely possible, agree. Miss the good old days when stock prices were based on earnings vs fed propping
Yeah, sell off could be related to Biden pushing forward. "Big Boys" may decide a repeat of 2007 is in order when Obama looked probable.
Biden should calm the markets if he was wise before people catch on that this isn't about covid, fortunately MSM is doing a good job at covering for him.
I've seen leftist governments come into power, it always follows with slow growth everywhere it happens. Plenty of better places to invest.
(BTW, I like leftist governments, but they suck money wise)
But really folks, check out yyg. Models aren't predicting anything silly
Biden should calm the markets if he was wise before people catch on that this isn't about covid, fortunately MSM is doing a good job at covering for him.
I've seen leftist governments come into power, it always follows with slow growth everywhere it happens. Plenty of better places to invest.
(BTW, I like leftist governments, but they suck money wise)
But really folks, check out yyg. Models aren't predicting anything silly
Barring total Armageddon there is 0 chance this happens. Be lucky if you ever see those levels again in your lifetime.
It's an election year and the election in only about 16-18 weeks away.
If there is not another bailout and the market tanks, the Dems will blame it on Trump and the Repubs. Nancy Pelosi and her gang of criminals will do whatever is necessary to derail Trump and put their own man in the White House.
They don't care about America, their motivations are selfish.
Heros act will get passed for sure, virus will fade. Real investors with real money are not looking at next 12 months though, they are looking at next 4-8 years.
Equity prices are future cash flows. When interest rates are this low, the future time value of money increases significantly. At 0%, the money in 4 years is equal to the same money in 30 days. That means, for the purpose of valuation, the profit a company makes over the next six months has the same influence as the profit they will make in six months in 4 years.
It seems weird, but that's the math. If interest rates rise the landscape changes, obviously.
So don't look at factors that will change corporate profits in the short term, look at long term factors. Biden, China, etc. This is what matters.
Democrats are not a big fan of stock buybacks and want to increase corporate taxes. If powers believe that current valuations are modeling a Trump like economy and that Biden will seriously undermine those valuations, a crash is in order.
The reason democrats have typically done well in the stock market is because the market has tanked assuming they will come into power, and vice versa. So after 8 years of republican, good time are likely over and so time to sell. Similarly, time to buy after 8 years of democrat. But you do it before the next president comes into power, so the previous admin gets the credit.
Clinton was the outlier as him and gore were probably the most effective presidents (economically speaking). Also his election was an outlier too because of Perot.
The market will tank before Biden is elected. If the market doesn't tank, it will because he isn't going to be elected. I see this scenario as unlikely.
As for retesting march lows, anything is possible, but seems unlikely. Hyperinflation as improbable as that is, seems more likely.
That said, if virus mutates into some terrible thing with high mortality rate, yeah retesting march lows is definitely possible. There was some speculation back in January that could happen if it spreads to Brazil on 4 chan in an interesting series of posts.
"Remember, the most optimistic prediction at this point is 60,000 people are going to get killed in the next few months. It's highly infectious with an R6, probable chance of further mutations, infectious during the prodromal phase, and it's airborne. The only reason you're not already seeing thousands of people confirmed outside of China yet is because the incubation period but believe me the WHO is already talking about how "problematic" modeling the Chinese response in Western countries is going to be, and the first country they want to try it out in is Italy. If it begins a large outbreak in a major Italian city they want to work through the Italian authorities and world health organizations to begin locking down Italian cities in a vain attempt to slow down the spread at least until they can develop and distribute vaccines, which btw is where you need to start investing.
The not just bad but scary case scenario is that they fail to contain it and that it also mutates in South America. This is going to be far, far worse than the Spanish flu if that happens and it's going to completely crash the global economy. This is concerned by world health authorities to be "only" 20.6-7% probable of happening however so as far as they're concerned they're taking it one step at a time not to start a panic, but it is estimated a one in five chance of over a hundred million people dying in the next year. Redfield is aware of this along with some other top American CDC staff and triaging the situation the situation according to that logic. Ask Kyle about this when you've got a chance. European health authorities do not seem fully debriefed on all this yet but WHO as far as I'm aware is where the numbers themselves mostly originated along with the models."
https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/241674007/#q241674613
Here's all the posts from just that guy if you want to ignore 4chan noise: https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/search/uid/nQzQS2i3/
Well worth reading if you haven't already done so (I'm sure most have)
Equity prices are future cash flows. When interest rates are this low, the future time value of money increases significantly. At 0%, the money in 4 years is equal to the same money in 30 days. That means, for the purpose of valuation, the profit a company makes over the next six months has the same influence as the profit they will make in six months in 4 years.
It seems weird, but that's the math. If interest rates rise the landscape changes, obviously.
So don't look at factors that will change corporate profits in the short term, look at long term factors. Biden, China, etc. This is what matters.
Democrats are not a big fan of stock buybacks and want to increase corporate taxes. If powers believe that current valuations are modeling a Trump like economy and that Biden will seriously undermine those valuations, a crash is in order.
The reason democrats have typically done well in the stock market is because the market has tanked assuming they will come into power, and vice versa. So after 8 years of republican, good time are likely over and so time to sell. Similarly, time to buy after 8 years of democrat. But you do it before the next president comes into power, so the previous admin gets the credit.
Clinton was the outlier as him and gore were probably the most effective presidents (economically speaking). Also his election was an outlier too because of Perot.
The market will tank before Biden is elected. If the market doesn't tank, it will because he isn't going to be elected. I see this scenario as unlikely.
As for retesting march lows, anything is possible, but seems unlikely. Hyperinflation as improbable as that is, seems more likely.
That said, if virus mutates into some terrible thing with high mortality rate, yeah retesting march lows is definitely possible. There was some speculation back in January that could happen if it spreads to Brazil on 4 chan in an interesting series of posts.
"Remember, the most optimistic prediction at this point is 60,000 people are going to get killed in the next few months. It's highly infectious with an R6, probable chance of further mutations, infectious during the prodromal phase, and it's airborne. The only reason you're not already seeing thousands of people confirmed outside of China yet is because the incubation period but believe me the WHO is already talking about how "problematic" modeling the Chinese response in Western countries is going to be, and the first country they want to try it out in is Italy. If it begins a large outbreak in a major Italian city they want to work through the Italian authorities and world health organizations to begin locking down Italian cities in a vain attempt to slow down the spread at least until they can develop and distribute vaccines, which btw is where you need to start investing.
The not just bad but scary case scenario is that they fail to contain it and that it also mutates in South America. This is going to be far, far worse than the Spanish flu if that happens and it's going to completely crash the global economy. This is concerned by world health authorities to be "only" 20.6-7% probable of happening however so as far as they're concerned they're taking it one step at a time not to start a panic, but it is estimated a one in five chance of over a hundred million people dying in the next year. Redfield is aware of this along with some other top American CDC staff and triaging the situation the situation according to that logic. Ask Kyle about this when you've got a chance. European health authorities do not seem fully debriefed on all this yet but WHO as far as I'm aware is where the numbers themselves mostly originated along with the models."
https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/241674007/#q241674613
Here's all the posts from just that guy if you want to ignore 4chan noise: https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/search/uid/nQzQS2i3/
Well worth reading if you haven't already done so (I'm sure most have)
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