Prediction Based Trading

Amatrue said:
did you buy weeklies? shouldn't you be buying 0DTE?
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I make it a rule not to buy less than a week out except on Mondays. It could take a day for things to play out, although it is usually its a bounce... 0DTE has too many odds stacked against, eg it might take a couple of hours for the move and I'd be at a loss even if it went up. Also, TSLA does not have 0DTE available except on Fridays.
 
Mentioned it before, but worth repeating because it's such a great technique and it happened again today. At the places where reversals are expected on a set of stocks, you may find that multiple stocks will touch those levels at the same time. Stocks generally top/bottom at around the same time, even if by apparent co-incidence. This applies to smaller timeframes as well. Think about the logic. Stock X is expected to reverse at price Y, and Stock A at price B. However, they have disparate technical patterns. Yet, the general market correlation allows for the possibility of non-random, discernible movement when price approaches an area of interest. Multiple areas of interest generated simultaneously via different technical methods in correlated markets allow for more so-called coincidences.
 
stockpredictor said:
(..) even if it goes your way at times, is how the market

cheats. It lies. It steals. It eats the hard work put in so that even if you win, you lose. Damn the stupid trash that is the market. I would have quit this accursed scam if I could. Made up of nothing but scum and garbage.
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ha ha :) that's ,well.. 'epic'? :)

you are certainly fit for a fund manager position!
 
Lost most of the gains made since moving back into options. Wasn't used to the platform and messed up, and was unaware of some restrictions on the account, which made me get into only the long side of a non-directional trade, and other losses.

Shorted BA at 242.5 slightly after market open today with biweeklys. Theta and stuff ate the gains. Closed at 241.5 at breakeven. Love-hate relationship with this stuff.
EDIT: Oh, and I didn't take today's GE short on the HoD at just under 14... I was already short BA so I didn't want additional short market exposure. It went down hard. I'm fairly confident BA goes down tomorrow but just wanted to mentally reset after that frustrating stuff.
 
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BA's high today is right where I had my entry yesterday... this is what I mean by event types. I was waiting the whole day for it to drop but it didn't, and then the next day it does what I expected... wanted to re-enter but I got into another trade instead and didn't have time to execute the trade. Same for AMD but missed it, we can see the event might this or that but it makes money regardless.
 

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