Prediction Based Trading

[stockpredictor]

Chart as shown

 

[stockpredictor]

163.66 long jnj

 

[stockpredictor]

Looking over your PnL, it seems you are pretty disciplined about just hitting base runs over and over again, and not going for the homerun. But between the entry and exit, is there something a big drawdown? Based on the spreadsheet you provide, your trades are most excellent.

I use options in order to increase leverage but the time factor messes me up. I'm switching over to levered shares or something, we'll see. There is rarely big drawdown- the UAL trade, and this GME trade, are some of the biggest drawdowns I ever took (including both realized and unrealized drawdown). Most trades are intraday so there is little drawdown. When I guess the gap direction wrong in overnight holds, that's where the drawdown occurs, esp because options don't breakeven when shares do. My system says to get out so I have to take the options loss.

I don't think there's any fund out there that can get close to this. 4 of the 6 losses were due to human error. That is, the system only made 2 losses (TSLA short and /ES short).

 

[stockpredictor]

closed breakeven

 

[NoahA]

I use options in order to increase leverage but the time factor messes me up. I'm switching over to levered shares or something, we'll see. There is rarely big drawdown- the UAL trade, and this GME trade, are some of the biggest drawdowns I ever took (including both realized and unrealized drawdown). Most trades are intraday so there is little drawdown. When I guess the gap direction wrong in overnight holds, that's where the drawdown occurs, esp because options don't breakeven when shares do. My system says to get out so I have to take the options loss.

I don't think there's any fund out there that can get close to this. 4 of the 6 losses were due to human error. That is, the system only made 2 losses (TSLA short and /ES short).

Pretty impressive, but if you are trading this with options and not the actual stocks, I can see how it gets messy.

 

[stockpredictor]

Pretty impressive, but if you are trading this with options and not the actual stocks, I can see how it gets messy.

Yeah, can't be short dated stuff. 2 weeks out seems to be the sweet spot.

I wonder if there's a skilless whale willing to work with a skillful minnow? I'd be willing to work with a multimillionaire for a big cut of the profit.

 

[stockpredictor]

chart as shown

 

[benwm]

Can you tell us a bit more about what inspired your system? I have been away from ET for four years and only skim read this thread so apologies if you already discussed this. But do you look at previous swing lengths, time of day, statistical distributions, have own indicators, read charts, etc? Is your exit pre-determined or based on how the trade is progressing?

Thanks for sharing this thread and your trades with others.

 

[stockpredictor]

Can you tell us a bit more about what inspired your system? I have been away from ET for four years and only skim read this thread so apologies if you already discussed this. But do you look at previous swing lengths, time of day, statistical distributions, have own indicators, read charts, etc? Is your exit pre-determined or based on how the trade is progressing?

Thanks for sharing this thread and your trades with others.

I fell for a snake oil scam. He talked a lot of mumbo jumbo about cycles and levels and mysticism stuff that a lot of old schoolers said. It sounded good but it wasn't. I investigated those technical ideas and read Jesse Livermore, Honma, etc. You'll find that a lot of ideas are basically the same; pivot/support/resist. High becomes low, low becomes high. Trade goes against you and ya wish ya got out at breakeven. Follow the trend. etc. I essentially combed through old papers to find commonality and combined ideas in a holistic whole with lots of chart gazing. Exits are determined once I enter. Based on how the trade is going, it may change.

Thanks.

 

[caroy]

Chart as shown

Are these trades from the most recent Friday? How do you short CAT at 169 when it's range for the day was 202-211. Are these from a while ago? A typo? or a different symbol? Same with BA? the daily range isn't near the price you have. Upload the wrong image?