Prediction Based Trading

[stockpredictor]

You're doing it wrong. Don't make the crowd work to be impressed by you. Simply post one (at least) real time position entry/exit etc. per day. (The more calls, the more amazing your potential becomes.) If you're holding overnight, then entry one day, exit the other ... you get the picture. Real time.

Your skeptics can't argue with real time posts before their very eyes...like they can with a sometimes up, sometimes down website, with old posts without time stamps.


Simple.

I'm ready to be amazed.

Well, there were many posts on there that did not need time stamps because the calls were 1 or more days apart, and they worked just as well.

However, I get your point. Alas, 1/day doesn't work. There can be stretches of inactivity, followed by bursts of trades in a short period of time. We'll see how it goes.

 

[userque]

Well, there were many posts on there that did not need time stamps because the calls were 1 or more days apart, and they worked just as well.

It's not about how far apart the calls are, it's about calling the time, in near real-time. If you can call the time a day ahead ... even more impressive! But my understanding is that you are only calling levels in advance.

However, I get your point. Alas, 1/day doesn't work. There can be stretches of inactivity, followed by bursts of trades in a short period of time. We'll see how it goes.

Understood. Just do whatever you can ... as long as it's near real time.

 

[.sigma]

I want followers, make money, etc. Be someone in the world. It only takes me a few mins to post. The short term signals might get crowded and begin to fail, so I would stop posting those and just go with the longer term ones, if that happens. Maybe get a job in some fund- I only trade thus far.

I'm starting to believe this type of thinking is some sort of fallacy. Just because some people copy your exact entry/exits doesn't mean the strategy magically gets arb'd into oblivion... or can it? It just seems irreal to me that traders think like this.

Obviously arbitrage exists but arbitrage and strategies "being arb'ed" are two different things as well.

 

[userque]

I'm starting to believe this type of thinking is some sort of fallacy. Just because some people copy your exact entry/exits doesn't mean the strategy magically gets arb'd into oblivion... or can it? It just seems irreal to me that traders think like this.

Obviously arbitrage exists but arbitrage and strategies "being arb'ed" are two different things as well.

I guess it depends on the liquidity of the instrument, and the number of followers.

Generally, followers would tend to help the trade. This is the basis of 'front running' and 'pump and dump.'

But if you actually start to really 'move the market' due to low liquidity and a 'high' number of followers/assets under management; then I'd think this would throw off whatever analysis, t/a, strategy, system, or etc. that cause the entry signal.

In this case, some followers would get good fills, and others bad fills. And depending on liquidity and how often the system trades; some follows will lose money on the same trade that other followers made money on.

 

[stockpredictor]

My strategy when it comes to levels is that it must open above a level and move down, in order to buy. Resistance must open under and move up to short. The problem is, how much profit will the trade produce?

I think there are so many traders out there that do this, so it won't be a problem. For the ones that trade low float quick moves, yes, I have heard a certain popular Youtuber doing this, perhaps not intentionally. There was apparently a follower who inverses this person's trades because he knows it was a pump and dump... Actually, this is why I don't want to trade that stuff. Liquid vehicles let an account scale up.

Anyway, BIDU update: As predicted, we are got the breakout this week.

 

[stockpredictor]

Closed the entirety of the trade at 134.80 for a little over 60% total. I will regret it, but every single trade will be one of regrets. At least, that's the mindset I come into.

 

[They]

The problem is, how much profit will the trade produce?

Yes, that is a problem.

It would be easy enough to run a simple MFE/MAE test on your levels. I suggest you do it. You could even do it manually if you don't have a backtesting program or programming experience.

 

[stockpredictor]

Yes, that is a problem.

It would be easy enough to run a simple MFE/MAE test on your levels. I suggest you do it. You could even do it manually if you don't have a backtesting program or programming experience.

I use the levels and ranges based on minima and maxima historical movements. I should have clarified, sorry. I meant for intraday. For swings, I simply use the next level and typically scale out.

I put in the chart for today's trade as an example. Historically speaking, it would be unusual for price to close above 134.83, for today at least. I saw the red candle, got out, and it proceeded to shoot for the moon again :/ Again, all trades will be ones of regret...

Based on what I read here and there, it appears Paul Tudor Jones uses something like this as well, as part of his strategy. I'll try to find it later, but he said when gold is in the 1300s, it sees 1700s relatively quick (paraphrasing). Something to do with levels and range fills based upon time. I believe it is somewhat similar in concept to gap/range fill theories.

 

[stockpredictor]

139.54 is coming up on BIDU. This will be an intraday short, if hit.

 

[stockpredictor]

No index has hit support yet. There are divergences in terms of Weekly and Daily level supports. The Transports are well above support and seem to be resisting a large move down thus far. Not shorting, just waiting for more of a dip.

TSLA may be prepping for a breakout, I'd like to see it open above 458.90. The ideal scenario would be that it opens above that level next week and moves down to touch that level, for the first time. It would be great if this occurred at around when the general market hits support. TSLA is resisting the market's moves down. May well be one of those TSLA rocketship moves.