Predicting Tomorrow's Price

[ironchef]

Jesus Christ, people.......It's the mostly highly traded instrument in the world. If someone could just predict if the close was going to be > or < the previous day's close they could make a lot of profits.

Just apply the law of large numbers to your prediction. The market, over many years, trends up.

 

[Sergio123]

Just apply the law of large numbers to your prediction. The market, over many years, trends up.

Yes. Thats why 75% accuracy becomes statistically significant. If you just said that the market was moving higher everyday then you would be correct 53% of the time.

 

[triplicity]

tomorrow is mystery may be are better than you know it.

 

[murray t turtle]

Just apply the law of large numbers to your prediction. The market, over many years, trends up.

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I like the Stock Traders Almanac[by J Hirsch] JAN forecaster for the whole year;
88+/% accurate.[But i count dividends , so a [-1%loss with +1.4%dividends is positive]
But when its wrong = like 1987 + 2009, maybe wrong BIG timeLOL
NOT many errors in that, even though its a super huge amount of data

 

[panzerman]

Attempting to predict the future is a real thing using linear or non-linear methods, or even utilizing negative group delay. See attached.

 

[murray t turtle]

..... making money as a trader?

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LOL
DRAW enough lines, channels, PSAR dots ;
put enough moving averages on a chart, may hit something.
IF that does not work, go all thru as many time frames you can ;
+ cherry pick some good ones for internet posting .
IF all that cherry picking does not work well , try to find a good trend;
take some profits, cut some losses + ride some good trends

 

[ironchef]

IF all that cherry picking does not work well , try to find a good trend;
take some profits, cut some losses + ride some good trends

You write a book, or sell trading courses, or be a trading coach.

 

[murray t turtle]

You write a book, or sell trading courses, or be a trading coach.

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LOL=good;
or sell some stainless steel +a bit of copper. Or IF WSJ + CO offers you $275million for your MSFT stock, or IBDpaper or IBD co, consider selling.Or let profits ride.
Partial profit$ can work well