Predicting tomorrow’s trading range

Quote from 99atlantic:

LMAO - anybody who claims to be able to 'predict' markets is a charlitan. Plan and simple.

Nobody can predict markets; all we can do is respond to them.
More...

I suppose I don't understand this line of thinking. If you merely respond to the market you ARE in effect predicting the response your responding to will continue.

If you go long, you're effectively predicting that the price will rise. It may be semantics, but I think true-none-the-less.

Am I wrong?

maybe forcasting and/or targeting is probable a more apt wording, ...
 
Quote from Joe Ross:

<b><i>This question was sent to me from one of our students:</b></i><color=blue> "Hey Joe! Do you have any statistics that help predict tomorrow’s trading range?"</color>

I certainly do, but please check me out on these numbers because I haven’t verified them in a long time. Here’s what I believe about tomorrow's trading range:

About 11% of the time, there will be a higher high and a lower low (outside bar).

About 11% of the time neither the previous day's high or low will be exceeded (inside bar).

Eighty-nine percent of the time, the previous day's high or the previous day's low will be broken by tomorrow's price action.
The previous day's close will be in tomorrow's range 65% to 85% of the time. If today had a higher high and higher low and higher close, there is a 70% probability the short term trend is bullish. That's quite a bit of trading knowledge, don’t you think?
More...

Those are crackmonkey statistics.

A standard approach is to use 1-3 sigmas of the daily IV/SV/MV to yield a probability distribution.

-segv
 
Quote from Joe Ross:

<b><i>This question was sent to me from one of our students:</b></i><color=blue> "Hey Joe! Do you have any statistics that help predict tomorrow’s trading range?"</color>

I certainly do, but please check me out on these numbers because I haven’t verified them in a long time. Here’s what I believe about tomorrow's trading range:

About 11% of the time, there will be a higher high and a lower low (outside bar).

About 11% of the time neither the previous day's high or low will be exceeded (inside bar).

Eighty-nine percent of the time, the previous day's high or the previous day's low will be broken by tomorrow's price action.
The previous day's close will be in tomorrow's range 65% to 85% of the time. If today had a higher high and higher low and higher close, there is a 70% probability the short term trend is bullish. That's quite a bit of trading knowledge, don’t you think?
More...

This is really not a predictictable thing because if you do not mention a time,you will never know WHEN any of your numbers might apply. You will know afterwards. Like everyone else.
Prediction is when you include a time when something will happen . Like tomorrow reversal in nasdaq100 at 9:50 est and 10:05 est in S&P500. That is a prediction.
 
Hasn't it been proven that whether one uses Implied volatility versus Actual volatility, future pricing will not really differ dramatically in either case?

This would imply that you have a 50/50 chance of knowing whether the volatility is going to be higher or lower tomorrow...

Anyone with a better knowledge of option pricing care to comment? I may be spewing incorrect garbage here...
 
Quote from Joe Ross:

<b><i>This question was sent to me from one of our students:</b></i><color=blue> "Hey Joe! Do you have any statistics that help predict tomorrow’s trading range?"</color>

I certainly do, but please check me out on these numbers because I haven’t verified them in a long time. Here’s what I believe about tomorrow's trading range:

About 11% of the time, there will be a higher high and a lower low (outside bar).

About 11% of the time neither the previous day's high or low will be exceeded (inside bar).

Eighty-nine percent of the time, the previous day's high or the previous day's low will be broken by tomorrow's price action.
The previous day's close will be in tomorrow's range 65% to 85% of the time. If today had a higher high and higher low and higher close, there is a 70% probability the short term trend is bullish. That's quite a bit of trading knowledge, don’t you think?
More...

Based on your input, I can predict my next trade will have a 50% chance losing money.
 
Quote from pattersb:/99atlantic

I suppose I don't understand this line of thinking. If you merely respond to the market you ARE in effect predicting the response your responding to will continue.

If you go long, you're effectively predicting that the price will rise. It may be semantics, but I think true-none-the-less.

Am I wrong?

maybe forcasting and/or targeting is probable a more apt wording, ...
More...
====================

PaTT;
You are right on the word ''forecasting'' or probabilities;
if one could REALLY predict, you wouldnt need to use a stop:cool:

Same reason I usually use the word derivatives rather than futures;
as Chick Goslin said futures arent abouit the future ,
past & present is whats left.

Helpful discussion.

murray TT:p
 
Quote from Walther:

This is really not a predictictable thing because if you do not mention a time,you will never know WHEN any of your numbers might apply. You will know afterwards. Like everyone else.
Prediction is when you include a time when something will happen . Like tomorrow reversal in nasdaq100 at 9:50 est and 10:05 est in S&P500. That is a prediction.
More...

How about something like this:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1093997#post1093997
Q

OddTrader


Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 2896


06-07-06 02:40 AM

Quote from Ivanovich:

It's a slow day, ...



Probably a narrow range section between 1.2850 and 1.2820.
UQ

:D
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top