Predicting Short Term Vs Long Term Moves

[VPhantom]

Viewed via a Bollinger band method ( auto range ), 1Min or 1Day charts do look pretty much the same.

(I agree btw.) Then the difference is on the trader's execution: on 1-minute charts you need perfect focus and have very little time to formulate a plan, execute it, correct the occasional errors, etc. Even a bathroom break is a liability. Already on 20-minute and hourly charts, things slow down enough that you get plenty of time to double, triple, quadruple think the situation before making your move (as long as you can fight boredom). And on daily charts, you can literally sleep on your EOD thoughts before markets open the next morning.

That's why I think even if an instrument was a perfect fractal (and they aren't, because the reasons for the visible fluctuations change slightly), for manual trading, shorter timeframes are more difficult to manage and carry a bit more risk (of error mostly).

That said, in intermittent markets like stocks, overnight gaps screw things up a bit, and that middle multi-day option in the vote is probably the worst timeframe for those.

 

[Turveyd]

(I agree btw.) Then the difference is on the trader's execution: on 1-minute charts you need perfect focus and have very little time to formulate a plan, execute it, correct the occasional errors, etc. Even a bathroom break is a liability. Already on 20-minute and hourly charts, things slow down enough that you get plenty of time to double, triple, quadruple think the situation before making your move (as long as you can fight boredom). And on daily charts, you can literally sleep on your EOD thoughts before markets open the next morning.

That's why I think even if an instrument was a perfect fractal (and they aren't, because the reasons for the visible fluctuations change slightly), for manual trading, shorter timeframes are more difficult to manage and carry a bit more risk (of error mostly).

That said, in intermittent markets like stocks, overnight gaps screw things up a bit, and that middle multi-day option in the vote is probably the worst timeframe for those.

Yeah but on D1 charts, you still have to kinda be around for a lot of the day the entire 24hours of the day in FX terms to get the entry your after, then monitor all day aswell kinda, maybe less.

Where as M1 I get to walk away, totally forget the markets, yes you have to think faster.

The uncertainty principal is the same on both sadly!!

Also on M1 I think it's easier to go, news has hit, we are going up and join it, where it might look the same on D1 its not as easy to hold for the same looking move over 20days.

I'm sticking to M1 anyway

 

[wrbtrader]

Easy answer...

The only right answer is that of your trade method considering the answer everybody else is giving you is based upon how they personally trade via their trade method.

Simply, backtest your trade method on long term price action versus short term price action and the results will tell you which is better for you.

Just be aware that market conditions change several times per year. Thus, one particular time frame may be best for you today while another may be best for you several months from now until the next change in market conditions.

 

[VPhantom]

Yeah but on D1 charts, you still have to kinda be around for a lot of the day the entire 24hours of the day in FX terms to get the entry your after

Not me as long as the overnight doesn't gap through my idea because I'm a limit entry kinda guy. I understand that a lot of discretionary traders might need to see the bar form, but to me that really means they're looking for a shorter time-frame. (i.e. hourly perhaps)

Where as M1 I get to walk away, totally forget the markets,

I love that aspect of day trading.

 

[DoubleTop]

I know this may open up a can of worms but it all seems relative to me. Yes it's fractal. But relative in what do you call a Big timeframe. What do you call a small timeframe? Everyone has a different way of looking at the world. Everyone's account is different, everyone's experience is different. The great thing about trading is that we are all different. The horrible thing about trading is that we are all different and what works for me may or may not work for you depending on life experience. It's all so relative. The more I learn the less I know. Funny thing is I can even recreate the market's movement in electrodynamics. But it still doesn't mean that it will work for anyone else.