Predicting Short Term Vs Long Term Moves

Easiest Timeframe To Predict Moves On

  • Intraday

    Votes: 18 56.3%

  • Multi Day

    Votes: 8 25.0%

  • Multi Week

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
Fundlord

Fundlord

Which do you guys find is more predictable short term intraday moves, multi day moves, multi week moves ?

Multi month and multi year moves are left out of the poll due as this is a trading question rather than an investment question.

Is the fact that most day traders fail, more so due to massive transaction costs in comparison to profit per trade or inherent unpredictability of short term moves ?
 
Fundlord said:
Which do you guys find is more predictable short term intraday moves, multi day moves, multi week moves ?

Multi month and multi year moves are left out of the poll due as this is a trading question rather than an investment question.

Is the fact that most day traders fail, more so due to massive transaction costs in comparison to profit per trade or inherent unpredictability of short term moves ?
More...

A very bad question as experience has shown me that no time frame is predictable.

Most traders fail due to lacking an edge, excess leverage and poor money management.
 
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Is it easier to tell where the bullet will be 1/4 second after it has left the gun or 10 seconds? As Yogi Berra said "it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future".
 
Intraday, moments of predictable between the news, longer your in, the more news related things you expose yourself to.
 
tonysoprano said:
Is it easier to tell where the bullet will be 1/4 second after it has left the gun or 10 seconds?
More...

Given that gravity and air resistance are constant, and for sake of argument wind negligible, then a ballistic trajectory is perfectly predictable. :p In the spirit of this discussion though, I'd say 10 seconds because that gives you those 10 seconds to react and make proper calculations from the moment you hear the gun shot.

In other words, I'd say daily or weekly if nothing else because it makes for calmer, well-planned decisions and forces one out of micro-managing. Also, the shorter the timeframe, the more randomness in my opinion because more and more of the moves are simply caused by the timing differences between sellers and buyers, and reveal nothing about value. (Although I'd understand the contrary argument that it might be easier to notice patterns in behavior among the habitual traders of a given instrument on the very short term, than institutions on the long term, but that's getting close to scalping which I don't see as a home game.)
 
Smaller timeframes, more signals, smaller stop, lesser accuracy.

Higher timeframes, less signals, bigger stops, higher accuracy.
 
Fundlord said:
Which do you guys find is more predictable short term intraday moves, multi day moves, multi week moves ?

Multi month and multi year moves are left out of the poll due as this is a trading question rather than an investment question.

Is the fact that most day traders fail, more so due to massive transaction costs in comparison to profit per trade or inherent unpredictability of short term moves ?
More...

INtraday. I struggle heavily with larger timeframe moves. Its something I'm working on
 
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