Predicting Range Days

R

Ripley

OK, we had a +150 DJIA day where it went UP all day, followed by a +50 pt day with a lot of movement eventhough it only went up 50 pts.

What would've been the odds that today was going to be a range day?

I bet it would've been upwards of 85% if anyone have some kind of clue as to figure these odds and such.

There has to be something else besides ATR to measure the potential movement within the day...

Anyone know?
 
I been using something thats been just an absolute jewel....eSignal has it....its simple and free.....rarely ever fails......im hesitant to say how i use it for the fear of being plucked by the regulars here.
 
Quote from lilduckling:

I been using something thats been just an absolute jewel....eSignal has it....its simple and free.....rarely ever fails......im hesitant to say how i use it for the fear of being plucked by the regulars here.
More...
Magic 8-ball? :D

Sorry, couldn't resist.
 
Quote from lilduckling:

I been using something thats been just an absolute jewel....eSignal has it....its simple and free.....rarely ever fails......im hesitant to say how i use it for the fear of being plucked by the regulars here.
More...

Don't worry, if it works, no one will follow it
 
Quote from Ripley:

OK, we had a +150 DJIA day where it went UP all day, followed by a +50 pt day with a lot of movement eventhough it only went up 50 pts.

What would've been the odds that today was going to be a range day?

I bet it would've been upwards of 85% if anyone have some kind of clue as to figure these odds and such.

There has to be something else besides ATR to measure the potential movement within the day...

Anyone know?
More...

Search "preparation".

Most comprehensive approaches have what you want built in.

It also applies to non range days. It's best to have what is coming up chosen in advance from a set of all types of days that you determine before the open. If saves a lot of fretting and missing the opening moves.
 
Ripley

Try using a 60 minute volume oscillator, mine is on TS8

set it to a very fast speed... ie 1 and 2

then watch the ES in the premarket...

more importantly watch the premarket the hour before you open.

you are looking for spikes... I prefer over 750 ticks... but you can choose whatever for your type trading.

Now this does not work all the time but...

It will easily narrow your trading days down to 10 to 15.

The theory (of mine) is that the greater the volitility and activity to come... from the institiutions and hedgies... will often time start in the pre markets.
 
Quote from Grob109:

Search "preparation".

Most comprehensive approaches have what you want built in.

It also applies to non range days. It's best to have what is coming up chosen in advance from a set of all types of days that you determine before the open. If saves a lot of fretting and missing the opening moves.
More...
Did you run out of Internet ink?

nitro
 
You can look at:

up, up, ?
down, up, ?
up, down, ?
down, down, ?
close on LOD
close on HOD

Type of "down"
Type of "up"

etc.

But entry and exit, mostly exit is still critical to profitability.

And of course news and "events" trumps everything else.

FWIW
 
Grob109: .I took your advice and searched on "preparation" and found 25 pages with 625 references. But the only recent post by you did not address preparation in the context in which I think you meant it. Then I searched on "preparation AND comprehensive" thinking that the latter might be a keyword, to no avail. The same happened with "preparation AND approach". Finally in desperation I tried "comprehensive AND approach", and got several references to your posts. However, I never saw "comprehensive" and "approach" used in the same sentence. I could only conclude that you like those words. Should I use other keywords in my search? Also I saw that a poster named Bubba7 likes those words, too. I am all for economizing on fretting, especially when confusion is involved. :Al
 
Quote from duard:

You can look at:

up, up, ?
down, up, ?
up, down, ?
down, down, ?
close on LOD
close on HOD

Type of "down"
Type of "up"

etc.

But entry and exit, mostly exit is still critical to profitability.

And of course news and "events" trumps everything else.

FWIW
More...

That is not what I meant. Not how many points the market went up or down. But, the "potential points for the day"... Eventhough "range" and "volatility" etc are similar, I don't think that is what I mean. I think its movement up & down (yet not volatility).......A combination of range & volatility with respect to the movement of daily price shifts would be it.
 
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