Predicting randomness

bdixon619 · Nov 22, 2005

Quote from marketsurfer:

nicely said, bdixon.

one can lead a trader to the facts, but one can't make him think.

best wishes,

surfer

hey surfer...long time no see

bdixon619 · Nov 22, 2005

Quote from Perseus:

In the above by bdixon619, so how's that gonna work when floor traders go away?

please read the two posts by 'jim c' here http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=903707#post903707

marketsurfer · Nov 22, 2005

Quote from bdixon619:

hey surfer...long time no see

hi, its nice to be back!

i particullarly like the "zero sum" study you posted earlier. the table defining market participants is classic!

thanks!

surfer

bdixon619 · Nov 22, 2005

Quote from profturf:

Might I suggest a positive approach that could thread some numerical light on this very erudite and informative discussion. ? Gold has crept up to $ 493. Is it more or less likely to break thru 500 than random? Same for bund at 119.63. Is 120.oo in the cards. What about DJI at 10820. Going to 11000? Are there any levels, any sequences of past prices from after which prics tend to show predicitve distributions that yield useful information. ? The key aspect of success in this field might be said to be to ask the right questiions. I believe the above is a good set of same to supplement . The posts on long term prediction based on qualitative analysis of global trends some very reasonable. Are there ways of quantifying such things as the performance of Cramer touted stocks after runups of various degree following his "spontaneous" remarks? Finally, one notes that from what I know about some of the star and failed speculators mentioned, most of them would not like to be compared to each other, Gann, or the boy wonder who went bankrupt several times before killing himself. His advice sounds so reasonable. But is it helpful and has it stood the test of time. A very good reason to take out the pencil and paper for all such reasonable sounding "guidances". proturf

Re: Gold...not my preference but I won't hold it against you, judge not. I would say it is more likely to break up but only can give anecdotal evidence...some analysts are saying gold to the 520's but they are using the square root volatility rule, I think.

bdixon619 · Nov 22, 2005

It has taken some time to remember that study as I have deleted most of my files pertaining to market subjects. I had two .pdf's with similar topics one I posted, not the other.

I haven't done any reading for awhile in market subjects as I was testing some new software and energetically working on another project. I anticipate some downtime in the next few months so ordered Larry Williams book on the COT Reports a couple of days ago. I'd appreciate you posting anything you have run across worth reading as I haven't been looking myself.

Best wishes for a Happy Thanksgiving!

kjkent1 · Nov 22, 2005

Quote from bdixon619:

please read the two posts by 'jim c' here http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=903707#post903707

jim_c's observations are important proof of why the market is non random, as well as proof of why most technical analysis doesn't work.

The market is not about price or volume -- it's about price times volume.

cnms2 · Nov 22, 2005

Quote from Cheese:
Billionaire or not?
Kind of solves itself if you cannot become one.
If I may so, it adds up to a lot of horsesh*t to announce that you don't want what you are not, cannot do or are unlikely ever to do.

Billionaire is simply a measurement of great success. Therefore it can represent a valid goal for representing success.

To me being billionaire is a measure of selfishness. On your road to becoming one there are so many missed opportunities to share your wealth. If you become a billionaire you're an as* hole in my book. There's no reason to keep so much money for yourself. To be able to make billions is enviable, but to be a billionaire is not. This applies to most multimillionaires too.

nononsense · Nov 22, 2005

Quote from kjkent1:

...

The market is not about price or volume -- it's about price times volume.

kent,

you almost sound like Jack now.

oddiduro · Nov 22, 2005

Quote from Cheese:

Billionaire or not?
Kind of solves itself if you cannot become one.
If I may so, it adds up to a lot of horsesh*t to announce that you don't want what you are not, cannot do or are unlikely ever to do.

Billionaire is simply a measurement of great success. Therefore it can represent a valid goal for representing success.

Cheese,

I cannot help but wonder, what stops a competent trader from becoming a billionaire other than drive?

I assume you are a competent trader, that can also predict markets, based on your posts.....therefore would it not be logical to assume that becoming a billionaire is well within your reach?

oddiduro · Nov 22, 2005

Has anyone stepped up and decided to predict what the price of any market they choose will be tommorrow. A margin of error of 0.1 percent will end this thread. I will reduce the challenge from five days, to just three. They must be consecutive.

Now, while this still falls under the parameters of luck, I contend that the markets are so random in movement that no one here can even get that lucky.