Predicting randomness

[NUTSNEAL]

Quote from science_trader:

You're on the road for the Nobel Prize in Economics...

...and perhaps the one in Physics as you just demonstrated how easy it is to go against the entropy principle...

Science Trader

Although we aren't specifically referring to heat transfer or gases, there sure is a lot of HOT air on these boards.

Note that you do not see CONSISTENTLY make money in that part of my post.

Actually, what I really meant was that if the markets were random (which they are not) that it may or might be possible to make money with proper risk management and trade sizing. But given proper risk management and trade sizing in the existing non random market for the skilled trader the sky is the limit.

It does sadden me though that in my miss wording of an attempted concession to the starter of this thread, the real meat of my post may have been lost.

Thanks for your response Science

 

[Grob109]

Quote from Equalizer:

Thats way Cool, a fellow Holdsworthian!
Yeah, all my ex-girlfriends thought his stuff sounded random - but they thought the same of John Coltrane and Mike Brecker, they didn't mind Scott Henderson and Eric Johnson, or Mike Landau (those 6 guys are my major influences).

Funny how it sounded random to them, (but to me Allan's music is some of the deepest stuff out there. He is my fave.)
Kinda like people's perception of prices!

Kid Charlemagne? I never really learned any of Steely Dan's tunes - probably since I was too busy working on perfecting all sorts of stuff like that opening guitar/Synthaxe line on Holdsworth's "Non-Brewed Condiment". A finger buster!

I'd better get off before the chit-chat Nazis attack us

ever consider having Savion (Glover) tap along??

 

[aPismoClam]

Quote from oddiduro:

I have concluded that there is no such thing as a trend. All patterns happen in hindsight. Taleb has something with his market views.

I am not marketsurfer

Seriously, my trading experience has shown me that trying to predict the direction is worse than flipping a coin and using good stops with risk management.

Let's talk yet again about whether we are not barking up the wrong tree with this prediction stuff.

Any pattern that can be shown to have worked in hindsight can also be shown to have NOT worked in hindsight, which means that the patterns we think we see have no predictive potential at all.

Regards
Oddi

genius.

I have concluded that there is no such thing as randomness. Generally, 90+% of everything measurable occurs within a very small envelope relative to the mean. Even tick charts and coin toss charts trend.

It's almost as if there's a protective boundary around human events limiting the effects of the Second Law of Thermodynamics and preventing total chaos.

 

[Grob109]

Quote from science_trader:

Perhaps an example ???

Red up on the international geophysical year 1957. Look especially to the van allen belts performing as lenses.

Secondly take a look at the data derived from the ill chosen nuc bomb launched from quadulain islands into the van allen belts.

 

[science_trader]

Quote from NUTSNEAL:

Science Trader

Although we aren't specifically referring to heat transfer or gases, there sure is a lot of HOT air on these boards.

Note that you do not see CONSISTENTLY make money in that part of my post.

Actually, what I really meant was that if the markets were random (which they are not) that it may or might be possible to make money with proper risk management and trade sizing. But given proper risk management and trade sizing in the existing non random market for the skilled trader the sky is the limit.

The use or may or might doesn't change anything with that sentence :


If the market were random it would be possible to make money with proper risk management and trade sizing.[\B]

....as it is IMPOSSIBLE. That's basic probs.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from NUTSNEAL:

But given proper risk management and trade sizing in the existing non random market for the skilled trader the sky is the limit.

May I assume that by "skilled trader" you are referring to non-random entries, and that you are not suggesting that risk management is the only necessary "edge?"

 

[NUTSNEAL]

Quote from science_trader:

The use or may or might doesn't change anything with that sentence :


If the market were random it would be possible to make money with proper risk management and trade sizing.[\B]

....as it is IMPOSSIBLE. That's basic probs.

Science

I must say there is a huge difference in using "would" or "may or might".

As I said before I miss used "would" in my attempt at diplomacy to avoid this type of discussion with the thread starter.

What appears (or is universally considered) impossible today MAY or MIGHT be proven possible in the future. As we learn more about streaks and persistency for example.

Don't forget at some point in the future that black swan MAY or MIGHT (note I didn't use WILL) jump up and bite your impossibility in the ass.

 

[Equalizer]

Quote from Grob109:

ever consider having Savion (Glover) tap along??

LOL, only if his tap-d is random, like my Rants on ET

 

[science_trader]

Quote from NUTSNEAL:

Science

I must say there is a huge difference in using "would" or "may or might".

As I said before I miss used "would" in my attempt at diplomacy to avoid this type of discussion with the thread starter.

What appears (or is universally considered) impossible today MAY or MIGHT be proven possible in the future. As we learn more about streaks and persistency for example.

Don't forget at some point in the future that black swan MAY or MIGHT (note I didn't use WILL) jump up and bite your impossibility in the ass.

NO, READ MY LIPS : IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE AN EDGE IN A RANDOM WALK MARKET USING RISK MANAGEMENT OR POSITION SIZING OR WHATEVER TOOL.

It's not a trader talking, it's a physicist / mathematician and believe me, we know that nobody will come and discover such a way in the future, even in a million years.

 

[NUTSNEAL]

Quote from science_trader:

NO, READ MY LIPS : IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE AN EDGE IN A RANDOM WALK MARKET USING RISK MANAGEMENT OR POSITION SIZING OR WHATEVER TOOL.

It's not a trader talking, it's a physicist / mathematician and believe me, we know that nobody will come and discover such a way in the future, even in a million years.

You may expect you may think but you don't know.