Predicting randomness
- Thread starter oddiduro
- Start date
A'HA, prediction of price from looking at a chart at any specific moment in time and "PREDICTING" where it should go.
This is what separates the the winners from the losers.
This is what i have been trying to get across in saying there indeed is value in technical analysis......
Take for instance regular old fashioned pivot points. What is the purpose of plotting pivot points in the first place? They are a means to show you where todays resistance and support spots could, should be met. So if in todays action the price of ES starts out with a print of 1250.00 and pivot point is calculated as 1252.50 for R1 and 1247.50 for S1, you can sit and watch what price does. If price goes up toward R1 your bias should be bullish.
OK, here is the prediction part......YOU KNOW resistance is above the opening print of 1250.00, the mkt has moved up some so your bias is bullish...What do you expect to happen?
You should be looking for a TEST of the RESIST at 1252.50 at R1 as the next target. Now, if the resist is taken out at 1252.50 what is your next prediction? Correct... A breakout of the pivot point at R1.....You are predicting the price will blast off to R2 at a minimum because the R1 pivot point was passed. R1 now will become support if indeed the prediction of price to go up and TEST R2 is accomplished......
This goes on all day long, some days it works like a new bride other days it is like the mother in law has come and coached your bride and she is looking at you different.
you throw in the mix some chart setups like flag for continuation of the previous leg (usually 3 legs in a run), moving averages if desired etc....
Your day is basically mapped out for you each day. Now i will say there is more to follow , but for now.....GOOD PREDICTIONS TO YOU AND YOURS... This game is fun...
PS,.... it is not so much where the pivot points are that matters so much....it is the TRAVELING of price to the NEXT pivot point is what you want to trade and put into the bank. The bacon between the pivot points is what you are gathering in as if you were a farmer bringing in the harvest of your brainpower and due diligence.
This is what separates the the winners from the losers.
This is what i have been trying to get across in saying there indeed is value in technical analysis......
Take for instance regular old fashioned pivot points. What is the purpose of plotting pivot points in the first place? They are a means to show you where todays resistance and support spots could, should be met. So if in todays action the price of ES starts out with a print of 1250.00 and pivot point is calculated as 1252.50 for R1 and 1247.50 for S1, you can sit and watch what price does. If price goes up toward R1 your bias should be bullish.
OK, here is the prediction part......YOU KNOW resistance is above the opening print of 1250.00, the mkt has moved up some so your bias is bullish...What do you expect to happen?
You should be looking for a TEST of the RESIST at 1252.50 at R1 as the next target. Now, if the resist is taken out at 1252.50 what is your next prediction? Correct...
A breakout of the pivot point at R1.....You are predicting the price will blast off to R2 at a minimum because the R1 pivot point was passed. R1 now will become support if indeed the prediction of price to go up and TEST R2 is accomplished......This goes on all day long, some days it works like a new bride other days it is like the mother in law has come and coached your bride and she is looking at you different.
you throw in the mix some chart setups like flag for continuation of the previous leg (usually 3 legs in a run), moving averages if desired etc....
Your day is basically mapped out for you each day. Now i will say there is more to follow , but for now.....GOOD PREDICTIONS TO YOU AND YOURS... This game is fun...
PS,.... it is not so much where the pivot points are that matters so much....it is the TRAVELING of price to the NEXT pivot point is what you want to trade and put into the bank. The bacon between the pivot points is what you are gathering in as if you were a farmer bringing in the harvest of your brainpower and due diligence.
went back and read a couple of posts.......STEVE is correct (as are others) a winning trader can not throw darts at ghosts and make money, throwing darts at moving targets and knowing in advance their BASIC maneuvers is a predictable target.
The mkt is not invisable, it has substance to be masseged and kneaded......
The mkt is not invisable, it has substance to be masseged and kneaded......
almost time to trade, a quickie note here.
How often have we heard, if you have a super system, "DO NOT WHISPER A PEEP", else it will be useless as others discover your personal Grail?
That is the canned mantra from tons of traders. But i am from the other side of the tracks, i contend the more something is known the more it will be enhanced by popularity. Now i will grant you this: fakeouts are part and parcel in this game, it is up to the individual to know how to filter his/her trades. But, that is not going to make simple setups and signals invalid. Money mgnt is in there to make you more money, but advertising your system to not going to destroy you.....it probably will destroy the person that uses your system and tweaks it to death, but in the beginning you just enter the trades before he/she and take the money.
There are no secrets , NONE...
Later gotta make some bacon...Good trading to all..
How often have we heard, if you have a super system, "DO NOT WHISPER A PEEP", else it will be useless as others discover your personal Grail?
That is the canned mantra from tons of traders. But i am from the other side of the tracks, i contend the more something is known the more it will be enhanced by popularity. Now i will grant you this: fakeouts are part and parcel in this game, it is up to the individual to know how to filter his/her trades. But, that is not going to make simple setups and signals invalid. Money mgnt is in there to make you more money, but advertising your system to not going to destroy you.....it probably will destroy the person that uses your system and tweaks it to death, but in the beginning you just enter the trades before he/she and take the money.
There are no secrets , NONE...
Later gotta make some bacon...Good trading to all..
Dynamic implies continual change, primarily in context of supply/demand and how price is affected; random implies an equal chance of any outcome, no matter the context. One implies opportunities for placing trades, if the context of movement, however small a time frame, is known to the trader; the other implies no edge whatsover in choosing whether to buy or sell at any given moment.
In what seemed to be your closing post on this thread, you came to the conclusion that the success of TA depends upon a static market, and because markets are dynamic TA fails to perform with any degree of consistency. However, it is a huge leap to go from this point of perception to the view that market movement is inherently random.
another little tip on where the mkt looks to go. (read the "mkt", defined as the players within the mkt, not the mkt as an entity of its own)
One thing the mkt likes to do is revisit where it has been, you find that in support and resist, pivot points (same thing), and lots of indicators that i never use.
TIP: Every Friday or Saturday i print out a 15 minute chart of the ES (also the ER2 and YM just for comparison of volatility). The chart is for the previous week, 5 days. I print this chart out in portrait so the vertical runs are more visible than in the daily landscape printouts for the daily review.
I compress the chart for the 5 days to be on one page, thus a quick glance will show the previous weeks support and resist spots.
When Monday rolls around and we start a new weeks goal of trading, the sheet jour described is there for my eyes to reflect back upon... What did this level do last week? Where are we relative to support resist besides todays pivot points?
The other beauty of last weeks levels is: This is a predictive part of the levels. If we get past a certain area that we are looking at now...What did it do last week?......Ok, it looks like if we can bust through 1210.00 we should get to 1225.00 with little resistance.
It is another GPS system for the roadmap in your brain....Where are we going? How far can we go before the next rest area? How much traffic was there last week as we traveled this road?
What is the saying? Financials are back and fill mkts....Grains are breakout and run mkts....
The Es loves to back and fill, so a roadmap comes in handy. It is like seeing a "RUN" of those 10 handle beauties before they happen. How neat is that?....... :eek: :eek: :eek:
PS, i have found over the years that a printout with last weeks important levels drawn on , work much better than just knowing the numbers. A visual works better than numbers..
One thing the mkt likes to do is revisit where it has been, you find that in support and resist, pivot points (same thing), and lots of indicators that i never use.
TIP: Every Friday or Saturday i print out a 15 minute chart of the ES (also the ER2 and YM just for comparison of volatility). The chart is for the previous week, 5 days. I print this chart out in portrait so the vertical runs are more visible than in the daily landscape printouts for the daily review.
I compress the chart for the 5 days to be on one page, thus a quick glance will show the previous weeks support and resist spots.
When Monday rolls around and we start a new weeks goal of trading, the sheet jour described is there for my eyes to reflect back upon... What did this level do last week? Where are we relative to support resist besides todays pivot points?
The other beauty of last weeks levels is: This is a predictive part of the levels. If we get past a certain area that we are looking at now...What did it do last week?......Ok, it looks like if we can bust through 1210.00 we should get to 1225.00 with little resistance.
It is another GPS system for the roadmap in your brain....Where are we going? How far can we go before the next rest area? How much traffic was there last week as we traveled this road?
What is the saying? Financials are back and fill mkts....Grains are breakout and run mkts....
The Es loves to back and fill, so a roadmap comes in handy. It is like seeing a "RUN" of those 10 handle beauties before they happen. How neat is that?.......
:eek: :eek: :eek: PS, i have found over the years that a printout with last weeks important levels drawn on , work much better than just knowing the numbers. A visual works better than numbers..
speaking of visuals
Visualization in trading with technical entry and exit is a thing of beauty. Picture the setup, watch it form, see the profit potential, see the exit point where the technicals tell you clearly you are wrong dude.......
Pull the trigger.....Remember you are trading futures not histories.....
The NEXT 5 minute bar is YOUR FUTURE, is it being friendly to you? If it looks good, fine relax. If the NEXT bar looks kind of shakey, then be on your best disciplined behavior, get nervous if you feel like it, remember this about stops, you can always get out early if you feel like it. No sweat, get out, but never give it more powder to blow up your account.
Elvis has left the building.....
Visualization in trading with technical entry and exit is a thing of beauty. Picture the setup, watch it form, see the profit potential, see the exit point where the technicals tell you clearly you are wrong dude.......
Pull the trigger.....Remember you are trading futures not histories.....
The NEXT 5 minute bar is YOUR FUTURE, is it being friendly to you? If it looks good, fine relax. If the NEXT bar looks kind of shakey, then be on your best disciplined behavior, get nervous if you feel like it, remember this about stops, you can always get out early if you feel like it. No sweat, get out, but never give it more powder to blow up your account.
Elvis has left the building.....
Hi CNMS,
I have not read all posts yet, but may be this link can help you.
http://www.predictionlabs.com
I'm testing their system and it seems to be predicted the market direction, at least Intraday.
They use System Dynamics, and Chaos Theory. Their results look promising.
Dan
I have not read all posts yet, but may be this link can help you.
http://www.predictionlabs.com
I'm testing their system and it seems to be predicted the market direction, at least Intraday.
They use System Dynamics, and Chaos Theory. Their results look promising.
Dan