This thread is probably not the place to discuss such specific examples. So just a word of advice: always look at the big picture too. $14 was the high established at the beginning of 04, hence a major resistance level, confirmed by the MACD histogram divergence. Quidel might not hit $16 by this December.
Predicting randomness
- Thread starter oddiduro
- Start date
Quote from cnms2:
Would you care to elaborate on your assertion that "Time when important price level will be established can be projected forward"?
There is several methods I know of that one can use to predict WHEN in the future is the greatest possibility that s/r or other important price level will get established. You can find examoles of it in my posts on " Nasdaq cycles " thread.
PS; look closer on NDX100 around13:20est today and 12:00est on Tuesday, 11-15. Draw trendlines at price extremes closest to these posted time and see if if you can trade of them.
everything you do in life requires that you anticipate or see 'what's coming up' to succeed. trading is no different and it's NOT predicting.
you drive a car, you see the bends in the road, you see the stop lights. etc. these are obstructions in your path to continue in your previous direction...you have to account for these changes, so you come to a decision based upon skills and experience and knowledge. (did you gain those initial driving skills by learning how to merge onto a crowded highway or by just carefully making your way down a quiet street)
everything and anything in life follows this pattern. why should trading suddenly be the exception....that now we have to predict (because it's random)???
not doable.
i'm not a great trader yet but i know these things. Stop predicting where you think price will go and start anticipiating it's progression along a path...when something steps into that path to thwart its progression you then have a decision to make.
markets are not random, if you look at the thing rightly, you'll see nothing in life is truly random...everything that happens has a continuation or change mode (physical and non-physical)...and change to continuation occurs when a flaw or flaws appear.
you can't KNOW if the light will be red when you can't see it. all you know is that when you do see the light and it's red, then you would be wise to stop. there is a flaw to your forward continuation coming up.
the good news is that i don't need to predict if the light will be red or green when i drive to be successful, i just need to monitor the road ahead and where i am, analyse that data, come to a decision about brake or accel..and then take a timely action. (nearly all of which is subconcious by now).
in time i believe trading will be that way for me as well.
(this is not a response to anyone in particular, but i just felt like posting. feel free to disagree and disparage)
you drive a car, you see the bends in the road, you see the stop lights. etc. these are obstructions in your path to continue in your previous direction...you have to account for these changes, so you come to a decision based upon skills and experience and knowledge. (did you gain those initial driving skills by learning how to merge onto a crowded highway or by just carefully making your way down a quiet street)
everything and anything in life follows this pattern. why should trading suddenly be the exception....that now we have to predict (because it's random)???
not doable.
i'm not a great trader yet but i know these things. Stop predicting where you think price will go and start anticipiating it's progression along a path...when something steps into that path to thwart its progression you then have a decision to make.
markets are not random, if you look at the thing rightly, you'll see nothing in life is truly random...everything that happens has a continuation or change mode (physical and non-physical)...and change to continuation occurs when a flaw or flaws appear.
you can't KNOW if the light will be red when you can't see it. all you know is that when you do see the light and it's red, then you would be wise to stop. there is a flaw to your forward continuation coming up.
the good news is that i don't need to predict if the light will be red or green when i drive to be successful, i just need to monitor the road ahead and where i am, analyse that data, come to a decision about brake or accel..and then take a timely action. (nearly all of which is subconcious by now).
in time i believe trading will be that way for me as well.
(this is not a response to anyone in particular, but i just felt like posting. feel free to disagree and disparage)
This is an excellent analogy in my opinion. The problem for many people is that they appear to believe that they can can see what's on the road ahead, beyond the bend, into next morning, next week, next month, etc., merely because they extrapolate this from a plot of the map of the road upon which they have already traveled.
However, viewed, in this framework, no one, would use a map of the road already traveled to predict what's up ahead with any precision.
Because, if the bridge ahead is closed tomorrow, it won't be visiable on yesterday's map.
However, viewed, in this framework, no one, would use a map of the road already traveled to predict what's up ahead with any precision.
Because, if the bridge ahead is closed tomorrow, it won't be visiable on yesterday's map.
THERUDEBOY
Guest
Oddiduro. You were obviously a bit frustrated when you come up with the idea for your original thread. The fact is, some people can get with the trend, they can get with the action. In some ways your a classic case....."i can't see it, so i don't believe in it". That's just defeatist, maybe you should give it more time instead of relying on other 'ways'. You go and tell an experienced trader that the markets are totally random....they should laugh. O.k. How are indicators formed out of randomness? Go figure. Hope this helps.
hey rude,
you are making the point exactly. some people can get with the trend---. however, you forgot to add--- some people can't get with the trend. this is perfectly consistant with the randomness theory.....
surfer
No, not frustrated. After looking to eliminate inconsistencies in indicators, I turned to number theory. Shortly after that, I recognized that the market is a random animal.
This is why marketsurfer has his Gann channels. He trades a random entity within a framework. The framework is non-random. The entity itself is.
It is much like keeping a tiger on a perserve. You don't know where the tiger will go, but you do know that it will not cross a certain boundary.
The tiger is random, the boundary is not.