Predicting is ***Unavoidable***

Here we go again. Attached is Jack's document, "Catch Up with Tomorrow's Paper Today -- Technical Analysis Used in a Manner to Anticipate the Market"
(SIDE NOTE: Since this is the "prediction thread," funny how this title reeks of prediction while all Grobeans vehemently deny predicting)

In this document, Jack advocates buying the "0 to 7 shift" of the "P,V relation" (see last page). Nowhere in the document does Jack specify which stocks to do this on.
QUESTION: Does buying the "0 to 7 shift" provide an edge?

Trader666 Approach -- Jack listed no qualifiers about which stocks to trade, so the implication is that it applies universally. Therefore, start by testing on portfolios of randomly selected stocks from the set of all listed U.S. stocks. Result: spectacularly bad equity curves. Next, try testing on small, mid and large cap stocks (the stocks of the S&P 600, 400, and 500 indices) to see if performance varies by market cap. It does not and is spectacularly bad for all. Next try several technical filters, one at a time. Result: still more spectacularly bad equity curves. Conclusion: If buying the "0 to 7 shift" of the "P,V relation" does give an edge, it's not enough of an edge to show up in these tests and is not good enough for my trading.

"A Team" Approach -- Add a boatload of ADDITIONAL conditions that were not in Jack's original document and declare that the "P,V relation" works after all.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=593276&#post593276

Pop Quiz:

Which approach more closely tested what Jack originally wrote in "Catch Up with Tomorrow's Paper Today?"

a) Trader666's approach

b) I can't ever admit I'm wrong and besides, Jack is my master so the A Team approach

c) I'm so stupid that I can't even wipe my own butt so the A Team approach

d) I'm a Grobean and to me, white is black and down is up so the A Team approach

e) I'm a Grobean and since everything I say is true (like I make 3X daily range and never have a losing trade) I deem the A Team approach to be more in line with Jack's original paper, therefore it must be

Quote from makosgu:

Mon ami! NONE OF THE ADDITIONAL CONDITIONS that YOU USED were in the original document either! For the Nth time, you can reread the document.

If the author of the original document makes no such mention of using the inputs you used, how is it that what you did was a measure of accuracy???

given that the author of the document did not make any recommendation of what you did...
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Attachments

Expand my horizons by opening my mind to Grobean voodoo and Boolean ballyhoo? So that I, too, can become a living contradiction? And get to drink kool-aid every day? Thanks but I'll leave that to you guys!

P.S. I hope I do provide motivation for parishioners in the First Internet Church of Grob to think for themselves!
Quote from Spydertrader:

You clearly have no desire to expand your horizons, and I have no problem with such a choice. However, once again (as you so often do) your example of obstanance provides the motivation others needed to think for themselves. I really cannot thank you enough. Please, keep on keeping on. With any luck, you'll provide another 'Aha!' moment for people to see.

Once again, keep up the fantastic work.

- Spydertrader
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Quote from jem:




As anyone who has scalped knows the really good entries have to be stalked and pre-traded. You do not have time to trade them in the now, you have to be trading them ahead of time.
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my hats off to you, jem. thats an absolutely brilliant statement bourne of experience and skill. bravo!

regards,
surf:)
 
Quote from nitro:

I find there is nothing more important in trading than this discussion. It hits on every single point of view of trading, from the philosophical to the mathematical, to the artistic to the even mystical.

I have created a website mostly for my own purposes, to write things down so that I don't forget. I have been wanting to do this for so long, but I finally just did it.

Here is my first post on this subject

http://www.synctrading.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?p=11#11

There is so much more that needs to be said in relation to what is being discussed here, but it is a good start.

nitro
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interesting topics, nitro. im looking forward to reading your thoughts. regards, surf
 
You're WRONG because Jack does it all the time, but NOT with "entries and exits." He doesn't do "entries and exits." He's in the market all the time, making money all the time, with 750 contracts at once! And there's PROOF... just look on these pages, here on ET... it's all documented in black and white!
Quote from jem:
As anyone who has scalped knows the really good entries have to be stalked and pre-traded. You do not have time to trade them in the now, you have to be trading them ahead of time.
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Your obsession is getting a little unhealthy, dont you think :D

Quote from Trader666:

You're WRONG because Jack does it all the time, but NOT with "entries and exits." He doesn't do "entries and exits." He's in the market all the time, making money all the time, with 750 contracts at once! And there's PROOF... just look on these pages, here on ET... it's all documented in black and white!
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Quote from jem:

I appreciate the time you put in.
I called it junk because if you go back and read your initial threads where you spoke of rockets, you made claims about there success that are false. Anyone who trades thes S&Ps consistently knows that their behavior changes and our apply old tools to new data sets. However with the recent increase in volitility perhaps we will shake out the mean reverters and perhaps rockets will work again.

As far as 40-50 trades a day, I used to be one of those guys.

If you are taking 40-50 trades a day you to be fading premium and tick thrusts quickly. Real scalp like trades with excellent executions and very low costs.

There is way to much overlap on 5 min bars to use your technique of trading in the now and evaluating circumstances. The profitable corners on 5 minute bars are only there for split seconds. No one evaluating data sets to see where we are now is making 40-50 profitable trades a day. You will be stuck in the the middle of the bars.

As anyone who has scalped knows the really good entries have to be stalked and pre-traded. You do not have time to trade them in the now, you have to be trading them ahead of time.

Just once I would like to see you prove your claims with a live account showing your profitable 40-50 trades a day. if you are profitable you will not be trading in the now. You will be stalking and trading in the future.

How many 5 minute bars exist in trading day. How many have volume worth trading. How many have corners that you could pick off. Your methods will have you stuck in the middle of many bars and it will take many bars for you to make a few ticks if you are lucky. And what of all the bars that close against you.
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generic response #86
I am up to date on your posts.

You will not have an easy time of trading.

From my viewpoint it has to do with getting stuff to jell. Not just regards to making money but how a person goes about mostly everything.

To get from A to B may not be fun for you. Not getting to B may be something you like to tell war stories about.

We are trading long trends. My orientation is to only take flawless trades. You do not realize this as yet. Once you have a method whose primary activity is weeding out stocks that do not fit the mold, you come to a place where things work well and consistently. We will shoot for 7 out of 8 trades panning out.

You should give a lot of weight to collateral stuff. DKM runs a site that was created by a mutual friend of ours. That person ask David to run the site. One aspect of it and the same aspect applies to the ES thread is that as time goes by the workers and contributors help and reinforce each other. I step back and let things focus on problems sometimes at the expence of getting results from the system. This has two advantages: we get to see a broader based experience and people can stand on thir own more easily.

You may want to consider this a little.

The pragmatic questions you ask like why bother with FRV? You suggest that I have DU and peaking so why the third item..

At some point you will notice the role of continuity in making money. I am a minimalist, but I do use forms for construction while things are curing.

The compound interest formula is something to look into. determine for yourself if you can handle it intuitively.

I will lose another AM opening tomorrow as a consequence of not keeping this thread current.

Is there any possibility you might want to consider learning by doing as an effective alternative?

Here are some major concepts that can guide you when you need to consider what comes up for you:

I am presenting a process for making money. Process.

The one singular precept guiding this is the fact that the market migrates instead of anything else. You do not know this and you need to consider that it may not be found in any other places. Soon you will conclude scoring does not work as well. This will lead to another experience in not finding it in other places..

The defaults I use preceded those chosen by others that appear to be the same. A lot of things still happen independently and there is no connection between several people getting to the same place at different times.

I iteratively refine things working wholistically.

It would be more straightforward for you to consider that the values I place on stuff is done for a lot of interconnected reasons.

To begin this process, I need to really focus on minimizing risk. One of the considerations is that no one can turn off real time and pause. I can't drag out stuff when it wrecks what is going on.

ET is not a place where people need a lot more examples of things getting messed up for extraneous reasons. I really have a lot of fears at this point regarding whether or not this place is workable.
 
Maybe... but it beats the crap out of your obsession with lying and pretending you're something that you're not. :eek:
Quote from Harold Balls:

Your obsession is getting a little unhealthy, dont you think :D
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Admission is the first step, I'm proud of you Trader666. Many people would continue to deny it but you've made a breakthrough! Continued luck getting through your obsession.
And....when all else fails, just add another alias!! :D


Quote from Trader666:



Maybe...

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