Predicting is ***Unavoidable***

[JimmyJam]

Quote from wdscott:

98% of market participants try to predict market behavior. (regardless of how they describe their actions).

2% of market participants simply follow market behavior.

thanks

jj

 

[Tums]

Quote from JimmyJam:


i predict if you try trading wits with this guy and you will absolutely f*cking loose 99.99% of the time!
jj

He is just digging himself deeper into a silly hole.
We all get a good laugh watching him boxing the Hershey shadow.

 

[Gaucho MM1]

Quote from Tums:

When I was living in Melbourne, we get four seasons in the same day. There is no predicting what the next hour's weather going to be like.

maaaaaaate.....if you don't like the weather then just wait 15 mins ok

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from JimmyJam:



i predict if you try trading wits with this guy and you will absolutely f*cking loose 99.99% of the time!

jj

If you want to say fucking .. just say it .. don't be a pussy.

---------------------------

Re trading wits with Tums ... I think the round went to firestorm when he caught Tums out on the cheap (very cheap) attack on his wife before Tums removed it.

"Quote from Tums:

since you are living in Australia, it is unavoidable to predict that your wife/gf weighs twice as much as you do?"

------------------------------

Why is it that when Jack gets involved in a thread it turns to shit like this? Can we predict that Jack's involvement will turn it to shit? Can we predict that if I get involved in one of the stupid "never resolvable question" threads I will end up telling someone that they're a wanker?

I don't know but I predict that any thread on prediction or trends will never be resolved. I also predict that Jack's longer posts will continue to be bloody near impenetrable (does the king have clothes on or not?). And finally I predict an increased number of newbies taking Jack's method up and I'm sure that they'll just out trade all the longer term ET residents as they take 3x+ on the market each day.

LOL Good trading tomorrow everyone ... remember, paper trading is for pussies ... we want all the PVTs and SCTs and VFMs in real cash tomorrow. Cheers

------------------------
The things people believe in are usually just what they instinctively feel is right; the justifications and arguments are the least important part of the belief.
That's why you can win the argument, prove them wrong, and still they believe what they did in the first place. You've attacked the wrong thing.
So what do you do? Agree to disagree. Or fight. - C. Zakalwe.

 

[Gaucho MM1]

Quote from firestorm:

As for prediction... Heisenbergs uncertainty principle proves there is naught but prediction in a probabilistic sense, so it truly is unavoidable! But being so, the question then becomes why even ask the question when there is no other possible answer... aye laddie, there's the rub and what will most likely cause you a sleepless night if you possess the requisite intellect

yes, as if there were need for a question.........is that the question........erm........what's the point of the original question? sounds like a side-track as most such question are........and what are public forums for anyway......... must go and super glue the right hemisphere to the back one ........I mean........

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from firestorm:

Thank you, the truly pointless has never been illustrated better

yes it has

Quote from kiwi_trader:

blurb, blurb, blurb

Sorry, I just had to delete everything this @$$hole had to say.

Jimmy Jam

 

[ammo]

in every profession,there is a journey from novice to adequate to expert.In trading there are trendlines which is what spyder uses,i can turn on big chart and connect the tops and bottoms on a monthly,weekly,daily basis and see support and resistance.I could teach that to any beginner.An expert can find these trendlines 20 times in a day chart,it appears that some people have found this holy grail and are trying to share it on this site.The fact that i haven't even begun to master this does not make it invalid.I trade with market profile and get maybe 6 signals a day.I've not sat next to and watched jack or spy trade so i can't judge whether it works or not any better than i can predict where the mrkts going,but it seems a waste of time to judge them and argue and banter and fill these blog sites with endless blog between useful info.We know that opinions,egos and stubbornness are all achilles heels of trading so when we post lets recognize those three things when proofing our posts before we hit SUBMIT REPLY

 

[nitro]

I find there is nothing more important in trading than this discussion. It hits on every single point of view of trading, from the philosophical to the mathematical, to the artistic to the even mystical.

I have created a website mostly for my own purposes, to write things down so that I don't forget. I have been wanting to do this for so long, but I finally just did it.

Here is my first post on this subject

http://www.synctrading.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?p=11#11

There is so much more that needs to be said in relation to what is being discussed here, but it is a good start.

nitro

 

[jem]

Quote from jack hershey:

The three skill levels of trading look like this:

Novice or beginner: about 7 holds a day.

Intermediate: 7 to 15 holds a day.

expert: 20 to 40 holds a day.

The trends overlap and the beginning of the overlap is signalled by a data set. The log notation for the data set conclusion is "change".

This moment causes a person to ACT. The Action is a reverse.

An expert is in the market all of the time almost without exception.

Rockets were nice traverse that had a nice characteristics; as used in PVT they give nice results in one day. In SCT they appear a couple of times a day as traverses of the channels that have the beginner FTT's in them.

Ice bergs kept people from "freakout" trading. And they were oriented to the "sentiment" of the market. Luckily, they let people relax a little throughout the day.

When you get on up to frequent trades like 20 to 40 a day, you are only in a position for 10 to 20 minutes on average. This is brisk and 2 to 4 bar hold come into the picture. (5 minute bars)

How does a person keep up if he has only 10 minutes to take care of business during RTH's.

If you look at the other forums here where scalping is going on, you do see more frequent moments of holding to get some degree of profit. We do not do this and those that do often use few elements in their data sets. This can be like "freak out" trading in many ways.

As 2007 goes by we are going to take trading up to expert level in both SCT and PVT.

a thread has begun where a person entered got 8 ppoints ahead and rode down 5.8 pionts and exitied and then from the side lines watched the market go back up 5.8 points.

he got many pages of posts on how much money he made that day, all in response to his query.

I pm'ed him that it looked like the potential was about 20 points. A sum of 8 +5.8 +5.8.

The general response was that he made about 2.3 points.

He saw the tops and bottoms. He entered and held through a top and exited on the next bottom and sidelined for the price move after his exit.

The market range may have been 8 points with three traverses of 8, 5.8 and 5.8 points each.

This is a beginner level of trading that involved less than 7 holds. It was just three holds with two "changes".

for an intermediate each of the "legs" of the beginner would be broken into parts where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole leg. lets say and odd number for each to be reasonable and not change the original leg actions. Now you see 9 sub segments that add up to more that 20 points.

What value above 20 points should be chosen to represent what is on the table? 21 would be too low. 30 would mean that the segments would be in the range of three points each. That would be too much probably to make the example a real one for most people.

The most vociferous people on this chosen value would express anger. eight limiting values would have to be picked in one day and that is way out of the box.

For experts we would see that for most of the segments of the legs 1 to 3 trades would occur. do half and half with a slight favoring of further breaking. This ramps the total holds up to 22.

The sum of these would be above 30 and would range from 3 points down to about 2 or 3 ticks as minimums.

When did all this happen?

For me it is a four page log that has about the same stuff on each page. That me a person like me could probably print roughly filled in logs, foru pages each, in sets of 25 for each month a month in advance.

This is quite far from "freak out" trading and scalping. The idea of tops and bottoms may be appearing in some reader's minds. caryola is there for others.

What internal formations am I holding through:

stalls, and hitches and most dips.

What internal formations am I trading:

all pennants,

All HVS

The cycling of CCC: slalom the congestion, slalom the convergence and do the centering BO.

All tops and bottoms. These include the FTT's on three levels of channels, NO BO's sincee they are intrmediate points between FTT's and FBO's.. Points 1, 2, and 3, where 1's are FTT's and 3's are FBO's.

Mostly all "changes" are data sets that have formation and annotations ID's. Annotating is like a dual purpose efort and I have data seets flowing in a steady stream where the routine in step four always gives me closure so I can start over.

The beginner has a small conclusion set and his data sets have few elelemts each. No freak out here.

The MODE is continue and change. You can see trader666 got as far as column one and two and he only blew column three. Todd "fixed" him and his thinking for just a moment in time, then he went back to his world and let our world.

The beginner is striving to do change on time. he missed to one side or the other but finally gets it straigt over a month or two. At 20 points a day it is okay for himn to work this way for two months.

he can add contracts occassionally as we see. He has profits for that.

The intermediate takes on larger data sets (you will see these show up soon.). He actually does more trades as he gets more "tops and bottoms" in the picture. They are preceeded by the leading indicators of price so he sees these in his data sets and knows the beginnings of the rhythms of the markets. It is not heavy metal but more like a foxtrot or waltz.

Things go to fine control for the expert large data sets and he tangos and does the NY Lindy. The data sets are not like a combo playing but more like the Big Band era. Zoot suit with reet pleat stuff.

This all befudles those over the line in conventional orthodoxy. That is just the way life turns out for these people. Just call it junk.

I appreciate the time you put in.
I called it junk because if you go back and read your initial threads where you spoke of rockets, you made claims about there success that are false. Anyone who trades thes S&Ps consistently knows that their behavior changes and our apply old tools to new data sets. However with the recent increase in volitility perhaps we will shake out the mean reverters and perhaps rockets will work again.

As far as 40-50 trades a day, I used to be one of those guys.

If you are taking 40-50 trades a day you to be fading premium and tick thrusts quickly. Real scalp like trades with excellent executions and very low costs.

There is way to much overlap on 5 min bars to use your technique of trading in the now and evaluating circumstances. The profitable corners on 5 minute bars are only there for split seconds. No one evaluating data sets to see where we are now is making 40-50 profitable trades a day. You will be stuck in the the middle of the bars.

As anyone who has scalped knows the really good entries have to be stalked and pre-traded. You do not have time to trade them in the now, you have to be trading them ahead of time.

Just once I would like to see you prove your claims with a live account showing your profitable 40-50 trades a day. if you are profitable you will not be trading in the now. You will be stalking and trading in the future.

How many 5 minute bars exist in trading day. How many have volume worth trading. How many have corners that you could pick off. Your methods will have you stuck in the middle of many bars and it will take many bars for you to make a few ticks if you are lucky. And what of all the bars that close against you.

 

[osorico]

Quote from jem:


...
As anyone who has scalped knows the really good entries have to be stalked and pre-traded. You do not have time to trade them in the now, you have to be trading them ahead of time.
...

Excellent statement!

Especially with increased volatilty, whether using fast(time-based) bars or minimal to moderate range bars, sandwich patterns are very frequent, not occasional. To maximize profits from this style of trading, the scalper (or even mini-hold trader) must pre-trade, thereby limiting profits. At very least, the use of a pre-determined discipline to counter movement back into or outside of the entry range, once again limiting profits.