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Predicting is ***Unavoidable***
- Thread starter aeliodon
- Start date
MAK, are you a native speaker? Serious question... all BS aside.
I tested the "0 to 7 turn" on many portfolios... randomly selected, S&P stocks, etc. It was never my intent to sabotage the results. It was my intent to find something robust enough to give an edge on almost any large group of stocks I selected, which it did not.
What condition(s) did you use to select the portfolio you backtested it on?
I tested the "0 to 7 turn" on many portfolios... randomly selected, S&P stocks, etc. It was never my intent to sabotage the results. It was my intent to find something robust enough to give an edge on almost any large group of stocks I selected, which it did not.
What condition(s) did you use to select the portfolio you backtested it on?
Quote from makosgu:
So according to your above statement, you had to add an ADDITIONAL condition to the code in order to get your negative EQ curve!
So now the question is, why did you select an additional condition that gave you a negative EQ curve??? EEK!
Quote from Trader666:
MAK, are you a native speaker? Serious question... all BS aside.
I tested the "0 to 7 turn" on many portfolios... randomly selected, S&P stocks, etc. It was never my intent to sabotage the results. It was my intent to find something robust enough to give an edge on almost any large group of stocks I selected, which it did not.
What condition(s) did you use to select the portfolio you backtested it on?
YES, ALL BS ASIDE.
So by choosing an ADDITIONAL condition that is a portfolio of "randomly selected S&P stocks", your portfolio backtest shows that such a backtest of a "0 to 7 turn" produces a negative EQ curve. The opposite of this result is a positve EQ curve where the backtest used a portfolio that is NOT a random selection of stocks. Alas, we have found something; an input difference. A random vs non-random portfolio input. On one side, a random input yields a negative result. On the other side, a non-random input did NOT yield a negative result. If one were to prefer not having a negative result, then why not use a portfolio that is not randomly selected (ie has criteria). You know the conditions. It is difficult to find anything robust enough to handle randomness. As has been mentioned before, Acrary was a master of isolating such things...
That's not what I wrote! Do you know what a comma means? You have serious reading comprehension issues for a native speaker.
I know for a fact that there are plenty of patterns that DO test out profitably over the same portfolios and timeframes I tested the "0 to 7 turn" on, WITHOUT adding in the ADDITIONAL conditions you continually fail to describe.
For something that Jack calls Catch Up with Tomorrowâs Paper Today, the "0 to 7 turn" of the P,V Boolean relation is a gold plated turd.
I know for a fact that there are plenty of patterns that DO test out profitably over the same portfolios and timeframes I tested the "0 to 7 turn" on, WITHOUT adding in the ADDITIONAL conditions you continually fail to describe.
For something that Jack calls Catch Up with Tomorrowâs Paper Today, the "0 to 7 turn" of the P,V Boolean relation is a gold plated turd.
Quote from makosgu:
YES, ALL BS ASIDE.
So by choosing an ADDITIONAL condition that is a portfolio of "randomly selected S&P stocks", your portfolio backtest shows that such a backtest of a "0 to 7 turn" produces a negative EQ curve. The opposite of this result is a positve EQ curve where the backtest used a portfolio that is NOT a random selection of stocks. Alas, we have found something; an input difference. A random vs non-random portfolio input. On one side, a random input yields a negative result. On the other side, a non-random input did NOT yield a negative result. If one were to prefer not having a negative result, then why not use a portfolio that is not randomly selected (ie has criteria). You know the conditions. It is difficult to find anything robust enough to handle randomness. As has been mentioned before, Acrary was a master of isolating such things...
Quote from jack hershey:
I do not, as I fill in a row, think in terms of predicting. The rows ahead in the log is where things would be written to predict.
But lets look at the past and see if anything was written somewhere that could look like a prediction for this row that is NOW. All I find are signals that occurred on various rows which are different time rows.
You are perfectly well allowed to call those signals anything you want. Use your definitions above to help you come up with names that are choosable. You can rename them any time you want as well. Go for it.
What I am saying is that the market is sequential in nature and, therefore it allows me to see that I will be writing continue and change at different times as time passes. I do it to make money.
What I notice as I keep real time logs is that I sometimes write in the next row something like "want to see X" or "confirm peak volume" and then if it does turn out that way I write "YES!".
My logs are getting to be full of these "YES!" entries and I'm contemplating switching over to only logging "WTF! No!" to save on ink (actually Faber Castell HB).
Quote from PointOne:
What I notice as I keep real time logs is that I sometimes write in the next row something like "want to see X" or "confirm peak volume" and then if it does turn out that way I write "YES!".
My logs are getting to be full of these "YES!" entries and I'm contemplating switching over to only logging "WTF! No!" to save on ink (actually Faber Castell HB).
Here are the snail tracks of a pointone predicting.
Where I am from, we call those "pecker tracks". You know, those slick shiny trails you see on the sheets the morning after?
Quote from jack hershey:
Traders have to deal with the pragmatic detail that a 5 minute bars forms over five minutes. Within bars there are the details presented by all the different displays of a variety of fineness.
The one tick range charts have a little coded box that shows the residence time, for instance. The clock simply restarts as a new tick bid/BAsk is in effect.
That is one of the elegant beauties of trading.
Musicians are literally intoxicated by the beauty of music forming into such splendor the same way.
I with the markets had scales and a range of notes with assigned period according to the meter specified on the scores.
The PVT and SCT annotation system go a long way towards the creation of the scene, that is for sure.
You may want to examine all the responses to my posts that show the person isn't even giving himself a chance to see the markets.
thanks for the reply......as price is, what price is, then I do not see price as pragmatic.......price is resultant, a finality in print......price only ever includes the ambition and or emotion of the traders who transacted to produce an agreed level........how that is pragmatic I am not sure because price is an agreement unto itself through senses of value and sentiment (for those involved in the transaction).......value is an abstract form at most degrees of trend if not all........afterall, ask what makes a weakhand rush for the door in an inverted peak, a climax of selling..........the weakhand sees less value in holding a declining price whereas the opposing negotiator is the smart hand who helps to instigate the seldown to achieve the cheaper price........so the price displays this action.......within that action exists a world of different moves preplanned and spontaneous........my task is to figure which side is which, for who's purpose and thus who am I trading with, not against.......
so you think other traders don't see? ok.
I am also a musician.......I have always shaken my head at this notion that the chart is like music.......what utter drivel.......let's see.......take my own music that Ive handed to several musicians from different backgrounds with the same grounding in music theory........not one ever plays the same way......sure the fundamentals of mechanics are the same......such things as inflection, tone and timbre are individual.....always different........most importantly, the sheet music is already post, hindsight.......so where on earth is the comparison tween a piece of music scripted already and an instantly unfurling chart ......there is no connection except in some romanticism of thought........a piece of music that is already written and misinterpreted is a far cry from a chart NOT written and misinterpreted in action.......the consequences are not even remotely connected........you see, I can tell you to play Bb in C time with 5/8 feel with 16 bars to vocal and 64 bars middle 8 yadda yadda.........but if you pick up the wrong instrument the piece is toast from the get-go! the player may instantly interpret the music differently to me........if that musician doesnt take the time to understand my intention then the result is different to what I want........and all this for a piece of history that we can BOTH already see.........there is no pragmatism within the notation, within each note......... only within my own and the other musicians bias or end-game.......that's where the real knowledge exists.......that's what I need to know.........
.......also, I need to know the background of the players.......in there I can find a similarity to music from trading........that I need to understand what the other players, big and small, nearterm, swing, daytraders, mutuals, specialists, floor traders........what is THEIR game........I simply don't know what prices they are chasing from thinking along a linear path of a bar.........I need to think about motives and the context they occur, the relative size........none of this is prewritten, not like a music score........
so, to summise (and generally get this stuff, about music, off my chest)........the similarity that most people use with music and trading is from the wrong angle, if there is any at all.........
this is an interesting conversation, thanks Jack
be well, have a stellar weekend
Joules