I think of your "right trend line" as a projected memory. When price, now, bumps up against this collective market memory you sit up and take notice, now. You do not say with any certainty what will happen next but when it does go one way or the other, now, you do what the market tells you. No prediction.
Predicting is ***Unavoidable***
- Thread starter aeliodon
- Start date
I think of your "right trend line" as a projected memory. When price, now, bumps up against this collective market memory you sit up and take notice, now. You do not say with any certainty what will happen next but when it does go one way or the other, now, you do what the market tells you. No prediction.
Jeez this is hard.
If you don't believe that the "bounce off the trendline" or the "break through the trendline" has a higher probability of profitable continuation than the opposite move then you wouldn't take the sodding trade.
How hard is this.
You take it because you PREDICT continuation of what it is telling you. All else is self-deception.
I give up - its no wonder that there is always someone foolish enough to take the other side of my trade.
LOL! I hate to break it to you but a one period SMA is meaningless. So knock yourself out connecting the dots but it's still NOT differentiable at the data points and you won't be able to tell if the market is rising at any given point without looking at one or more PAST data points. As for your so-called continuous right trend lines, those are nothing more than extrapolations of PAST data into the future. Nobody with a knowledge of the topics you mentioned would post such foolish claims.
Quote from makosgu:
HAHAHA... AGAIN MON FRERE you omit some details! The biggie of course being STOCHASTIC functions and STOCHASTIC CALCULUS!You know, ITO, Stratonovic et al... You can google it and check it out. Such math came about ironically to deal with physics and not so surprisingly, the stock market. However, if these are unfamiliar, look at 1 period sma. That is a smooth continuous function. There is a lot of stuff that I look at that I'm sure are different then what you backtest. Just like the weather, maybe you don't look at the barometric pressure. These are the sort of differences where you get into leading type of indications, kind of like the precursors to rain (ie. thunder in the distance, cumulus congestus clouds). Hence, my forward tests are the absolute value of your backtests. So, here you have pointed out yet another difference between you and I. Whereas your rain drop is P now and past, mine is a vector bundle of independent now variables. To type slowly too, I guess, I look at trend lines. So when P is above my right trend line that is long weather. When P is below my right trend line, that is short weather. So here is the real T6 gotcha. My RIGHT TREND LINE is CONTINUOUS across several discrete data points. This is like a two for one thing. I plot a continuous function over a series of critical points. The result is that for every future P point that scrolls into the present, it is a comparison of the current P to the CURRENT POINT ON THE RIGHT TRENDLINE that is directly below my now P... MON FRERE! I get two NOW points! HAHA! Relax, consider some things. You can turn that negative EQ curve to positive yet... 30 years 359 days to go on our forward test... We're going to get there...
It's all about probabilities, so if you buy, you are working out probability that it will go higher in the timeframe you have. if you sell, you are thinking probabilities favor the downside. If you wanna call that predicting, then so be it. But when economists make predictions, better watch out!
http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
I learned from predicting things, I couldn't break the habit because I was good at it more often then not. Even now though I use the prediction as a basis. I work from there, and trade the price action post analysis.
So what you're saying, is that when you see "X" (where "X" could be price pattern, inter-market relationship, dual/triple confirmation, etc.) and you determine that price action should then do a "Y", and if it does, then you would enter position "A", and if it doesn't then you would either i) do nothing and wait for the next setup or ii) or enter position "B" (which is always the opposite of position "A").
Sounds good.
JJ
If it always does as you have "bet"
continuation or change, then you are not predicting. However sometimes you play continuation and you get change and vice versa. Unless you are 100% correct then you are predicting. Below is a quote showing less than 100% performance in continuation or change guessing.
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Quote from PointOne:
chuckle
The Nikkei just did a "stall turn". A variant on the FTT, retrace, reverse sequence, more like DU->FRV.
Yesterday I misidentified several FTTs on the Nikkei and tried shorts as it kept chugging upwards. Seems obvious in hindsight (was also last day of March contract so maybe I should have known there would likely be convergence to a target close?).
Great contributions from everyone the last few days.
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Wake up dood. You are predicting.
See attachment. This is not a life preserver.