If you want to convince us that you are not actually predicting, then simply state that when you put on a trade, when you hit that buy button, you have absolutely no idea or expectation that you will profit from it.
Predicting is ***Unavoidable***
- Thread starter aeliodon
- Start date
Actually, your example of the "NOW" ("market is rising") encompasses the past because markets move in discrete steps called ticks... so when you speak of "rising," it is the current tick relative to one or more lower ticks in the past (at greatest resolution). Of course you can "zoom out" but the principle's the same.
With that said, this whole argument is semantic bullshit because whenever someone puts on a trade (or remains in one), he's predicting / anticipating / forecasting / concluding / betting / speculating / wagering that the market WILL DO SOMETHING based on where it is now AND where it has been.
With that said, this whole argument is semantic bullshit because whenever someone puts on a trade (or remains in one), he's predicting / anticipating / forecasting / concluding / betting / speculating / wagering that the market WILL DO SOMETHING based on where it is now AND where it has been.
I might as well insert my two cents worth in here. I think most people do predict when trading.IMHO Jacks method is a bit different. Lets say you get in a car and start moving but you have no particular destination in mind. You just want to ride. You proceed along until you come to some sort of obstruction. A stop sign, a traffic light, a detour, whatever. You do what ever is dictated and proceed or change direction according to the signs. This is not really predicting, it is simply following signals. This is probably not the best analogy but this is the way I think of it. You simply follow directions that you are given by the market itself.
The market is not some 3rd party house that we are all playing with. We are all the market. We are all not trying to make as many positions lose money as possible, we are all trying to make money at the same time. Some do at this moment, some don't at this moment and then it goes on and on all day long.
There is no mysterious force called the market, we are it baby!
There is no mysterious force called the market, we are it baby!
Disagree!
When you look out your window, you can make a statement about the weather. Is it raining out? Is it snowing out? Is it warm/cold? Is it a trend/no trend? Is it LONG/SHORT? The statement it is raining is not conditional on there being a raindrop outside of your window the previous instant. It means you see rain outside of your window at that moment! Likewise, markets rising is not conditional on the current tick being higher then the previous tick. In a tradable instrument, you can enter a market order to buy which will go off at the ask and then in the next instant hit a market sell order at the bid and the bid/ask pair has not changed. On your T&S it will look like a tick down? Does that mean the market is "falling"? Absolutely not! SO what winds up being the issues is the DEFINITION OF A FALLING/RISING MARKET.
The age old Q, what constitutes a long vs short. Many traders say it is a rising market when they see repeating sequences of higher highs and lows and that it is a falling market when they see repeating sequences of lower highs and lows. With definitions like these, you can have many sequences of down ticks and still be in a rising market... The point is that NOW is the Present, not the Past nor is it the Future. Right now it is sunny and cold in New York. There is no prediction in that weather statement, just the facts. People on the street are currently wearing coats and scarves as I stare down from my office on the 18th floor down to the street. Similarly when you look through your trading screen window, you identify the trading weather. If the trading weather is short, you have your shorts on. When the trading weather is long you have your longs.
Interestingly enough, weather is just like trading. WEATHER IS NOT RANDOM! You do not have rain one second, snow the next second, and sun the following second. Weather lasts for a period of time as do rising/falling markets. When it is raining outside, you don't guess about when to put away your umbrella. You take out your umbrella when it is raining. When it stops raining, you put away your umbrella. People do not try to predict when it will stop raining so that they can time precisely when to close their umbrellas. They simply close it when it stops raining. Similarly, why should anyone predict when to put on shorts if the current market is long? That is like closing your umbrella because you think in the next instant it will stop raining. We all knows what happens when your timing off and you close your umbrella before it stops raining; you get wet. In trading, instead of getting wet, you lose money; so why predict? So we can see here what the real problem is, most traders can not describe what short or long weather is or looks!!! They hypothesize instead of looking at how the MARKET (all of us as a whole acting) operate. Instead traders try to predict the weather and get caught in all the misconceptions you specified and get all the results your backtests get.
The correct weather analogy would be.
You look out the window and see rain clouds forming. So before walking out the door, you pickup the umbrella.
Some people here are trying to convince us that you didnt just make a prediction
The trading version:
You look at your screen and see a stock rising. So you press the buy button anticipating it will keep going up.
Some people here are trying to convince us that you didnt just make a prediction
The semantic BS continues...
Your actions are a dead give away that you are in fact making a prediction. If you hit the buy or sell button, if you pick up that umbrella, if pull your windsurfer out, you are in fact predicting something, no matter how many ways you try to wiggle out of it and pretend you only exist in the now.
You look out the window and see rain clouds forming. So before walking out the door, you pickup the umbrella.
Some people here are trying to convince us that you didnt just make a prediction
The trading version:
You look at your screen and see a stock rising. So you press the buy button anticipating it will keep going up.
Some people here are trying to convince us that you didnt just make a prediction
The semantic BS continues...
Your actions are a dead give away that you are in fact making a prediction. If you hit the buy or sell button, if you pick up that umbrella, if pull your windsurfer out, you are in fact predicting something, no matter how many ways you try to wiggle out of it and pretend you only exist in the now.
I guess I misspoke there. I should have said Spyder's interpretation of Jacks method. I dont know about the macd, etc. It appears they are not really neccessary. Spyder has pared the method to the bone and made it easier for those of us who cannot follow the old mans means of communication.