Predicting intraday price movement

Quote from FaderTrader:

Predicting price movement with certitude? Impossible.

Predicting recuring patterns of intraday movement? With a lot of experience, perhaps.

It's all about watching order flow. Again, if you don't use Open Book or Level 2, no chance in hell you'll make serious money daytrading.

If you wanna get a feel for how prices move, plot the Opening Range (the top and bottom of the first 15-minutes of trading) and then use tick reply on esignal. You'll notice how price movement starts out slowly in one direction, then accelerates in that direction, goes farther than otherwise would be expected by most, and then reverses to do the same thing in the opposite direction.
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Is these widely accepted notions???

Especially the comments about Open Book and Level 2?

(Interest is in e-mini.)

I must confess my ignorance about these things.
(I can do basic technical analysis, after the fact. I don't
have a strong math backround.)

Thanks,

-Stephen
 
Quote from stephenszpak:

Is these widely accepted notions???

Especially the comments about Open Book and Level 2?

(Interest is in e-mini.)

I must confess my ignorance about these things.
(I can do basic technical analysis, after the fact. I don't
have a strong math backround.)

Thanks,

-Stephen
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I never used Open Book nor Level2. To me these things are useles; but perhaps it is useful for someone else.
I know a trader for whom it is useful to watch the moon.
What is useful or not depends on the trader and cannot be copied just like that to someone else's system.
 
Thanks spike500.

My main problem with technical analysis is that you've
got a market moving down AND stabilizing at a support
level, for example. After that it either goes up or fails
through. The same problem at resistance levels. When
I mentally traded long ago I would probably have done
better by flipping a coin at the support and resistance
levels, as far as picking direction when prices stabilize
there.

-Stephen
 
i like to watch my big toe........when it twitches with pain from losing i quit trading.........sure..............

the s/r remarks are right on target........devise a strategy system that tells u to enter the market ...........whether the entry is caused by support or resistance is irrelevant.......it is th eprice aciton reading of indicators that say to me enter or don't enter........I don't need to know why the move is there.......the signal is there........i don't care WHY....I DON'T CARE WHY....i care about system signal being given and my recognizing signal in time to enter..........I don't care why because there a re a million or WHY'S EACH MOVE.........THE ONLY WHY IS NEED I S WHY SHOULD I CARE ABOUT WHY ? I DON'T .......SO THERE IS ANOTHER WHY NOT NEEDED........IT TAKES A LOT OF HARD WORK ........STEPHEN U R HITTING THE NAIL ON THE HEAD.......SUPPORT RESISTANCE TRADING/STRESSING/WORRYING/FRETTING ABOUT SOMETHING THAT IS LOW % STUFF....THAT'S WHAT INTRADAY WORRY ABOUT TRADING S/R IS...I DON'T TRADE LOW %.........NOW NOW......HARD WORK ALLOWED NEXT LEVEL TO BE ACHIEVED.........WORKING ON FINAL STAGE........MY BRAIN......WORK IN PROGRESS.....I AM GREAT SYSTEM DEVLOPER WEAK TRADER ..........MOVING TOWARD FINAL TRADING DEVELPMENT OF IMPROVING TRADING SKILLS/EMOTIONAL WRECK FROM TOO MUCH DEVELOPMENT.......................LOOKIN G BETTER BY THE DAY.........TENACITY ..........DEDICATION........HONESTY..........GENEROSITY.........ALL GOOD ......LOVE OF MONEY........SINFUL TRAP........
 
Quote from porgie:

i like to watch my big toe........when it twitches with pain from losing i quit trading.........sure..............

I AM GREAT SYSTEM DEVLOPER WEAK TRADER ..........MOVING TOWARD FINAL TRADING DEVELPMENT OF IMPROVING TRADING SKILLS/EMOTIONAL WRECK FROM TOO MUCH DEVELOPMENT.......................LOOKIN G BETTER BY THE DAY.........TENACITY ..........DEDICATION........HONESTY..........GENEROSITY.........ALL GOOD ......LOVE OF MONEY........SINFUL TRAP........
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I don't want to waste too much of your time today porgie
(since I can't trade).

I did get briefly into the wealthlab demo a good while back.


What do you use for system development (for software)?


- Stephen
 
no software...........only thousands of hours looking at all that is out there.......moving average indicators......a few thousand different combinations........keeping the good ones as i went........finally combining a few of only the top ones......and old school stuff.........buy dips sell rallies..........trend is your friend.....good risk reward ratio.........like 1 risk to 3 reward.......lose 3 times and 1 pulls u back out of hole...........my system gives bad trades only rarely...........it didn't happen overnight or year........many years.......archaic and old school.......yes, and loved every minute of it........not big secret stuff.....just simple as porgie like porgie keep it .....for final combination..i worked for a filthy rich man with a few programmers and genius or 2 with him.......software out the wazoo............didn' t help..............:D
 
Quote from porgie:

no software...........only thousands of hours looking at all that is out there.......moving average indicators......a few thousand different combinations........keeping the good ones as i went........finally combining a few of only the top ones......and old school stuff.........buy dips sell rallies..........trend is your friend.....good risk reward ratio.........like 1 risk to 3 reward.......lose 3 times and 1 pulls u back out of hole...........my system gives bad trades only rarely...........it didn't happen overnight or year........many years.......archaic and old school.......yes, and loved every minute of it........not big secret stuff.....just simple as porgie like porgie keep it .....for final combination..i worked for a filthy rich man with a few programmers and genius or 2 with him.......software out the wazoo............didn' t help..............:D
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Porgie

Thanks. I tried moving average crossovers and using the
direction of a single moving average as well, long ago.
The frequency and amplitude of the price movements is
constantly changing so it didn't seem to work for me. You
know, 'the market doesn't care what moving average
you use' and all that.

-Stephen
 
Quote from stephenszpak:

Porgie

Thanks. I tried moving average crossovers and using the
direction of a single moving average as well, long ago.
The frequency and amplitude of the price movements is
constantly changing so it didn't seem to work for me. You
know, 'the market doesn't care what moving average
you use' and all that.

-Stephen
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I must say, I have used the 200, 50, and 10 moving averages for stocks on the 1 minute time-frame, and I will say, the market will react to these moving averages, especially the 200. Also react on the YM as well. So you must not have used them correctly, or something.... but I have been looking at them as well as support and resistance, and works like a charm, but you have to be able to execute, and if you can't no TA, FA, or MA will help you at all.
 
Quote from JMowery1987:

I must say, I have used the 200, 50, and 10 moving averages for stocks on the 1 minute time-frame, and I will say, the market will react to these moving averages, especially the 200. Also react on the YM as well. So you must not have used them correctly, or something.... but I have been looking at them as well as support and resistance, and works like a charm, but you have to be able to execute, and if you can't no TA, FA, or MA will help you at all.
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JMowery

Thanks. I haven't done anything lately. It's just how
I remember things.

So you use a 200 period moving average on 1 minute bars?

A 40 period on 5 minute bars might be easier. I found that
1 minute with 200 MA equals 5 minute with 40 MA give or
take. I suppose that's obvious though.

-Stephen
 
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