Predicting HV - Thoughts on a Trading Model

[MechTrade]

Quote from dmo:

I agree with this. The threshold of a professional-level understanding of options is when you know beyond needing to think about it that a put is a call and a call is a put because at their core they're both premium - gammas, vegas and thetas.

If you're trading options and this is not clear as day, then acquiring that understanding should be your goal.

Jeez DMO... I have to admit that even I understand that..., and I'll NEVER claim to have a professional-level understanding of options.

But in keeping with the Topic "Thoughts on a Trading Model", I can contribute the following:

For the past few months I've been trading a few Calendars and making a little profit. I track my trades along with the R/R ratios at the time I made the trades.

This month, I've been looking for Calendar setups that are similar to the successful trades that I made for the past few months, and guess what... The debit premiums needed to establish positions this month are about 50% greater than those available in earlier months. So after spending several hours this past week looking for reasonable Calendar debits with no success, I decided to just pass on all Calendars this month. No big deal... just wait for setup's that are comfortable to me.

That sums up my "Thoughts on a Trading Model".