Predicting gold and silver prices with trendlines and S/R!

[Blotto]

Quote from Blotto:
Long 1450.

Note how quiet the gold market has gone. I smell blood...
What is the old saw, never short a quiet market?
Would not want to be sitting short now, thats for sure.

If any of the big boys fancy buying a few thousand to push it higher, here would be the place.

 

[Blotto]

Quote from Blotto:

Note how quiet the gold market has gone. I smell blood...
What is the old saw, never short a quiet market?
Would not want to be sitting short now, thats for sure.

If any of the big boys fancy buying a few thousand to push it higher, here would be the place.

I wrote the above at 06:54 EST. Look what happened to the volume just after. ET: not just for pikers. Looks like there was indeed some big boy buying...I wonder who...

Quote from Blotto:
If this low holds, I'm targeting 1460 minimum. Then the reaction there will set up whether I exit or hold.

Out, 1460.2. It may go higher...later.

 

[Blotto]

Quote from HurricaneUS:

The only thing that you've illustrated is how to post an "after-the-fact" trade

Is todays example good enough? Gave my entry price and target in advance. You must appreciate I'm live trading multiple markets and this is about the quickest I can do it.

That is 4/4 on this thread. Any interest in predicting without trendlines?

 

[FreakofNature]

Quote from Blotto:

Is todays example good enough? Gave my entry price and target in advance. You must appreciate I'm live trading multiple markets and this is about the quickest I can do it.

That is 4/4 on this thread. Any interest in predicting without trendlines?

You just use price and volume ?

I think you have been timely and transparent, others might be haters due to envy.

 

[Blotto]

Quote from FreakofNature:
You just use price and volume ?

Yes. No trendlines, no indicators, no textbook stuff, no DOM.
I had given some of my reasoning for the gold longs over on Rearden Metal's call thread.

I was inspired by RM's short gold call before the big break and his generosity in sharing and inspiring others, so thought I'd participate a little more here. It has been an interesting experience, but I'll have to stop here as I trade many markets and fun as this is, its also distracting. More seriously, my trading performance could be a lot better than it is, and I need to devote serious time and effort to overcoming my weaknesses. Once you get complacent in this business, might as well pack it in, so must keep pushing myself to the next level.

I'd hoped that there would be some more interest, replies, which may lead to discussions about ways of predicting other than using trendlines, fibs, what is in the textbooks and on websites - but there doesn't appear to be.

Anyway, the answers are out there for those prepared to really work at it and learn to think correctly. Continued success to you all.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Blotto:

Yes. No trendlines, no indicators, no textbook stuff, no DOM.

That's good to hear.

I'd hoped that there would be some more interest, replies, which may lead to discussions about ways of predicting other than using trendlines, fibs, what is in the textbooks and on websites - but there doesn't appear to be.

Though it's not about predicting but about probability. Once one starts predicting, the ego gets invited to the party. Then all the emotions that everyone is always going on about.

 

[moonmist]

Quote from Blotto:

Lets have a stab at short term prediction. I mentioned Sunday evening looking for longs over the next few days.

I've entered here with a 1 point stop. Targeting 1470 initially, and the reaction at those areas will tell me whether a continuation is likely. Bigger picture I am still looking for 1500 but managing short term trades and will frequently exit in order to buy back on a correction at a better price.

The price action over the last two and a half sessions appears to have induced shorts, and I can see from the volume around the lows this morning that there is little selling left to come. What can I conclude from this? Shorts are vulnerable to being squeezed. Where will the majority keep their stops? Finally, if we can get up the range, will pullback traders also enter long pushing the market even higher?

No trendlines feature in this analysis. Lets see how it turns out.

IMHO:

Some people may argue that this trade was a "Trend Line Bounce".

 

[moonmist]

Quote from Blotto:

Is todays example good enough? Gave my entry price and target in advance. You must appreciate I'm live trading multiple markets and this is about the quickest I can do it.

That is 4/4 on this thread. Any interest in predicting without trendlines?

I've never traded gold futures. But it seems that you are able to identify extreme oversold/overbought conditions accurately, and trade accordingly .....


Just my two cents.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:



Just for fun, let's try to predict the movement of silver and gold with trendlines and S/R.

And here is silver:

I drew a lot of lines because I had no way of knowing which ones would end up being useful or not. [/B]

=============
Thanks for the charts;
just for fun, lets dont try to predict, that way our fun maybe profitable in the long term .Not a prediction

Long term trends for silver + gold are both up; but that is not a prediction.LOL==================================

 

[toolazy]

Quote from Blotto:

Is todays example good enough? Gave my entry price and target in advance. You must appreciate I'm live trading multiple markets and this is about the quickest I can do it.

That is 4/4 on this thread. Any interest in predicting without trendlines?

Excellent trades !

So you do not see HFT affecting your entries ?

Do you rely on price/volume action to determine exact timing or you determine level beforehand and you enter once price touched 1450.0.

Here is my last shortterm trade in audusd. I enter without price confirmation. Price moved max 1 pt above my level. Reading other people's mind would be best i can describe method. TL has played role in decision to select level. Used 10 pips stop.