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Predicting gold and silver prices with trendlines and S/R!
- Thread starter 1a2b3cppp
- Start date
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
I'm hoping someone can share some advice in this thread about how to predict with trendlines.
Common error: starting with the answer.
If you could predict accurately without trendlines, would you still want to use them?
Take short term daytrading of liquid futures markets. Your goal is to learn how to accurately predict changes in price in the immediate future. Then your method gives you the appropriate buy and sell triggers, together with correct position sizing to produce your net profits.
Perhaps best not to start by assuming which tools you need for the job - trendlines, indicators etc - might be that none of them are required or helpful.
Quote from Blotto:
Common error: starting with the answer.
If you could predict accurately without trendlines, would you still want to use them?
Take short term daytrading of liquid futures markets. Your goal is to learn how to accurately predict changes in price in the immediate future. Then your method gives you the appropriate buy and sell triggers, together with correct position sizing to produce your net profits.
Perhaps best not to start by assuming which tools you need for the job - trendlines, indicators etc - might be that none of them are required or helpful.
Of course I wouldn't care about trendlines if I could predict accurately without them.
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
Of course I wouldn't care about trendlines if I could predict accurately without them.
Lets have a stab at short term prediction. I mentioned Sunday evening looking for longs over the next few days.
I've entered here with a 1 point stop. Targeting 1470 initially, and the reaction at those areas will tell me whether a continuation is likely. Bigger picture I am still looking for 1500 but managing short term trades and will frequently exit in order to buy back on a correction at a better price.
The price action over the last two and a half sessions appears to have induced shorts, and I can see from the volume around the lows this morning that there is little selling left to come. What can I conclude from this? Shorts are vulnerable to being squeezed. Where will the majority keep their stops? Finally, if we can get up the range, will pullback traders also enter long pushing the market even higher?
No trendlines feature in this analysis. Lets see how it turns out.
Attachments
Here is the trouble with posting calls online. One must be flexible with targets and adjust the trade management according to market conditions.
In this case, the market rose 5 points in half the time which would be typical. That is the second time today we've had a very fast upward movement in under a minute. Make the most of a good fill while you can get it - generally when a market goes off that fast, it is best to take profits (or at least lighten up) and wait to see if you want to buy back again on a correction. 5 points profit for 1 point risk in 29 minutes is not to be sniffed at.
However, the overall condition has not changed, with few shorts around and the high probability of squeezing to take out new highs and likely also 1500. Any further selling is going to be an opportunity to pick up some longs on the cheap.
Hopefully I've illustrated the possibility of picking high probability trades through understanding the overall context, and therefore being able to enter very early with tight stops without waiting for the "confirmation" that other traders need. Waiting for confirmation results in them entering later and at a worse price.
If you know what you need to see to take a trade, and as importantly know what you need to see to stay in a trade or exit a trade, then you can improve your odds dramatically. Even if I'm completely wrong on what I think gold is likely to do over the next few days, the odds of entering a position and having it go against me is low, and when this does happen the loss is quick and small.
I could post dozens of these trades every week. It is possible to enter trades with very tight stops and profit on more than 75% of the trades. Investigate how to do this, and lots of interesting discoveries await. The answers are out there, but they're not in any of the textbooks, websites, seminars, or courses I've ever seen.
In this case, the market rose 5 points in half the time which would be typical. That is the second time today we've had a very fast upward movement in under a minute. Make the most of a good fill while you can get it - generally when a market goes off that fast, it is best to take profits (or at least lighten up) and wait to see if you want to buy back again on a correction. 5 points profit for 1 point risk in 29 minutes is not to be sniffed at.
However, the overall condition has not changed, with few shorts around and the high probability of squeezing to take out new highs and likely also 1500. Any further selling is going to be an opportunity to pick up some longs on the cheap.
Hopefully I've illustrated the possibility of picking high probability trades through understanding the overall context, and therefore being able to enter very early with tight stops without waiting for the "confirmation" that other traders need. Waiting for confirmation results in them entering later and at a worse price.
If you know what you need to see to take a trade, and as importantly know what you need to see to stay in a trade or exit a trade, then you can improve your odds dramatically. Even if I'm completely wrong on what I think gold is likely to do over the next few days, the odds of entering a position and having it go against me is low, and when this does happen the loss is quick and small.
I could post dozens of these trades every week. It is possible to enter trades with very tight stops and profit on more than 75% of the trades. Investigate how to do this, and lots of interesting discoveries await. The answers are out there, but they're not in any of the textbooks, websites, seminars, or courses I've ever seen.
Quote from HurricaneUS:
The only thing that you've illustrated is how to post an "after-the-fact" trade
Two actually this week. I'll try a before the fact trade later today in gold if the long I'm looking for sets up, time permitting. I'm looking for it to bottom between 1450 and 1447 today. If I see what I need to see, I'll try and post here in advance.
I can't distract from my trading too much, but this "trendline" thread interested me and I wanted to have a go at predicting short term direction without trendlines. Or at least show some possibilities which others may use to find starting points for their own trading that isn't part of the conventional higher highs higher lows trendlines and fibs textbook stuff.
As explained yesterday, I'm still bullish on gold.
Here is another long trade. These entries are very low risk, and again no need for trendlines.
The bigger picture view is helpful, as you know in advance which sort of day it will be (from high probability POV) and then you take the entries and manage accordingly.
Here is another long trade. These entries are very low risk, and again no need for trendlines.
The bigger picture view is helpful, as you know in advance which sort of day it will be (from high probability POV) and then you take the entries and manage accordingly.
Attachments
Quote from Blotto:
As explained yesterday, I'm still bullish on gold.
Here is another long trade. These entries are very low risk, and again no need for trendlines.
The bigger picture view is helpful, as you know in advance which sort of day it will be (from high probability POV) and then you take the entries and manage accordingly.
Just covered 1454.0 They don't all work, and this one has had plenty time to go. +1.3 points.
I'll look for another long around 1450 if I see what I need to.
Quote from Blotto:
I'll look for another long around 1450 if I see what I need to.
Long 1450. This one may not work. Some of them don't.
If this low holds, I'm targeting 1460 minimum. Then the reaction there will set up whether I exit or hold.