Predicting gold and silver prices with trendlines and S/R!

[1a2b3cppp]

As you know from my journal with live calls, I trade as if price is random.

As you know from following that journal, I bought some USLV the other day and am thinking about buying some gold, too.

Just for fun, let's try to predict the movement of silver and gold with trendlines and S/R.

Here's a chart of gold since price dropped the other day:

Some of the lines seem to be working, and I've removed most of the ones that didn't to make the chart look better.

And here is silver:

I drew a lot of lines because I had no way of knowing which ones would end up being useful or not.

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
----let's try to predict the movement of silver and gold with trendlines and S/R.
----Some of the lines seem to be working....
----I've removed most of the ones that didn't to make the chart look better.
----I drew a lot of lines because I had no way of knowing which ones would end up being useful or not.

1) That's the "rub". It randomly "works" some of the time.
2) If you draw enough trendlines and support/resistance zones, something is likely to randomly "work". :eek:

 

[Redneck]

S&R and/or lines both horizontal and diagonal = are context (and not the only context btw)

Context shows where, and how – participants acted

Context shows where “potentially” participants could act again – in either the present – or future

Context has no predictive value – iow; How…, or even if – participants will act – in either the present or future

Context is not a set up


Price could always respect…, deny/ ignore…, appear to deny/ignore then respect.., appear to respect then deny… become indecisive…, or show no interest in getting close to – our context


===================================================

We never (well at least I don’t);

Solely trade context…, or assume price will do something just because of context


Naz

I thought better of you than that old – put enough lines on a chart and something gotta work stchick



RN

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from Redneck:
----context....
----context....
----Context....
----Context....
----Context....
----Context....
----context....
----context....
----context....
----Naz....
----stchick....

Sir, I hereby grant to you the distinction of ..... Lord God Context Meister.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from nazzdack:

1) That's the "rub". It randomly "works" some of the time.
2) If you draw enough trendlines and support/resistance zones, something is likely to randomly "work". :eek:

It's almost as if you're saying they're not reliable.

I wonder if the price predictors know this?

But seriously, that previous support is now acting as resistance for gold:

And silver:

 

[1a2b3cppp]

This is what my chart would look like if I were trying to sell a course:

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Silver is making lower highs and lower lows on a 500 volume chart:

Is this a downtrend? Should these pullbacks be shorted?

But wait until the next post for another way to look at it.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Look at this. This price has been S and R many times, and even though silver is making lower lows, the last one was right on the line so maybe it's going to make a higher high now rather than continuing its downtrend:

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
----Look at this.
----This price has been S and R many times....
----last one was right on the line....

There are many places where the market crossed the "line" but you didn't draw arrows.....random application, random effectiveness.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from nazzdack:

There are many places where the market crossed the "line" but you didn't draw arrows.....random application, random effectiveness.

I don't know if that counts. I've seen price action charts where price goes through a line and then bounces off of it again. Is that line still valid? If resistance flips to support price has to cross it at one point.