I'm not looking to predict direction- I'm looking for clues on forecasting large range days.
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Predicting Day's Range
- Thread starter runningman
- Start date
small range days
large gaps
overnight movement
abnormally large opening ranges ( first 15, 30, 60 mins, etc)
abnormally large volume ( first 15, 30, 60 mins, etc)
larger transaction sizes than normal
large gaps
overnight movement
abnormally large opening ranges ( first 15, 30, 60 mins, etc)
abnormally large volume ( first 15, 30, 60 mins, etc)
larger transaction sizes than normal
Quote from dafugginman:
small range days
large gaps
overnight movement
abnormally large opening ranges ( first 15, 30, 60 mins, etc)
abnormally large volume ( first 15, 30, 60 mins, etc)
larger transaction sizes than normal
I've been investigating opening ranges, 8-9am as opposed to 9-10am and volume for same time period. Seems like if volume really increases from 9-10 vs 8-9 it lends itself to larger range days.
Quote from runningman:
I'm not looking to predict direction- I'm looking for clues on forecasting large range days.
Like I stated in my first post, the ATR%(14) will at least tell you the expected difference between the high and low. So, if the ATR%(14) is 7% and the Current Day's ATR% is close to 7% then you can expect it to be done moving. Whereas, if the Current Days ATR% is only 2% then you can expect a 5% move ahead. Then it is just a matter of using other indicators to determine which direction that 5% move is going to go.
Again, like I said, there is no single indicator that can tell you everything, but multiple indicators combined together can be amazingly foretelling.
I don't believe in chasing the market. Every once in awhile something out of the ordinary will happen, like even though the ATR%(14) is 7%, there will be days when the stocks range jumps to 12% for that day. Fine, then I miss out on that extra profit potential for that day.
However, it is unrealistic to buy a stock with the expectation that it is going to go up 12% in a day, if it has never gone up more than 7% before.
Similarly it is unrealistic to think that a stock is going to go up while 99% of the stocks in the stock market are all going down. That is a good way to just throw your money away!!
Ed
What is the ATR(14) % a percentage of? ATR(14) / Opening price?